Bellwether swing voters
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  Bellwether swing voters
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buritobr
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« on: January 22, 2015, 07:23:30 PM »

After many threads about anti-bellwether swings, what about the bellwether swings?

Bush 2004 / Obama 2008
Considering that, comparing to 2004, Obama increased 10 million votes for his party and McCain decreased 2 million votes, the number of Bush 2004 Obama 2008 voters is relevant, but probably not very big.
Bush had the majority of the senior citizens' votes. Some of them died between 2004 and 2008. The majority of the first time voters in 2008 voted for Obama. So, through the cycle of life, Bush voters were replaced by Obama voters.
The turnout of the minorities in 2008 was very high, so, there were some Abstention 2004 Obama 2008 voters.
The natural percentage of black vote for the Democrats is 90%. Obama had 95%. So, we can say that 5% of the blacks who voted in 2004 and 2008 are Bush 2004 Obama 2008 voters.
The majority of the hispanic voters voted for Kerry, but his margin among this group was not very big than Obama's margin. So, there were Bush 2004 Obama 2008 hispanic voters. The largest swings took place in states where hispanic population is large.
There were large swings in midwestern states too.

Clinton 1996 / Bush 2000
Considering that Dole 1996 + Perot 1996 ~ Bush 2000, the number of Clinton 1996 Bush 2000 voters is not necessarily big. But since there were Perot 1996 Gore 2000 voters, and maybe Dole 1996 Gore 2000 voters, there were some Clinton 1996 Bush 2000 voters. By observing state-by-state result, we can see that in the South, Gore decreased the percentage. So, most of the Clinton 1996 Bush 2000 voters were there. In the North, Gore kept Clinton's percentage (but not the margin) in many states.

Bush 1988 / Clinton 1992
Well, Clinton 1992 had smaller percentage than Dukakis 1988. But since there were Dukakis 1988 Perot 1992 voters, Dukakis 1988 Bush 1992 (as discussed in other thread), there were some Bush 1988 Clinton 1992 voters.


Carter 1976 / Reagan 1980
Nixon 1972 / Carter 1976
Johnson 1964 / Nixon 1968
Eisenhower 1956 / Kennedy 1960
Truman 1948 / Eisenhower 1952
easier to find, more obvious
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buritobr
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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2015, 04:08:09 PM »

http://www.google.com.br/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CB0QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.uvm.edu%2F~dguber%2FPOLS125%2Farticles%2Fpomper.pdf&ei=ZLfCVKeqBMOjgwSsl4O4Bw&usg=AFQjCNHuITBZxAzYWVGFtVtaFgfwwLb-kQ&sig2=sCn4-HlZw4skB1gB3psV3g&bvm=bv.84349003,d.eXY

I found interesting data here
How did voters in 2000 voted in 1996 and 2000
39% Clinton / Gore
31% Dole / Bush
7% Clinton / Bush
7% No Vote / Bush
6% No Vote / Gore
4% Perot / Bush
2% Perot / Gore
2% Nader
2% Dole / Gore
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2015, 06:38:32 PM »

I suspect the percentage of party switchers (9%; in bold) would be just as small in more recent consecutive elections. This shows that it takes only a relatively small number of "swing" voters (in the truest sense of the word) to change the outcome of an election, and that the vast majority of voters are committed to one party or another.

Looking back, I suspect that of those who voted for a major party candidate in both '72 and '76, about 23% switched parties.
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