Greek parliamentary election predictions thread
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Author Topic: Greek parliamentary election predictions thread  (Read 4874 times)
politicus
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« on: January 23, 2015, 06:58:07 AM »

Post your predictions here.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2015, 07:05:10 AM »

landslide PASOK win
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politicus
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« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2015, 07:06:19 AM »


Put your money where your mouth is laddie. There must be some bookie giving 350:1 on that bet.
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politicus
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« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2015, 07:10:48 AM »

36% SYRIZA
30% ND
8% Potami
6% XA
5.5% KKE
4.5% PASOK
3% ANEL
2.5% Kinima
1.3% LAOS
1.2% DIMAR
2.0% Others
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republicanbayer
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« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2015, 08:31:43 AM »

35% SYRIZA
28% ND
8,5% XA
6,5% Potami
6% KKE
4% PASOK
3,5% ANEL
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2015, 09:23:28 AM »

36.8% SYRIZA
30.1% ND
6.6% Potami
6.4% XA
4.5% PASOK
4,2% KKE
3.2% ANEL
2.8% Kinima
1.6% LAOS
1% DIMAR
2.8% Others
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jaichind
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« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2015, 09:26:30 AM »

My prediction

SYRIZA    36.3
ND           29.6
River          6.5
KKE           5.6
XA             5.6
PASOK       4.9
ANEL         3.8

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Zanas
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« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2015, 12:35:09 PM »

Here is my final prediction :

Syriza : 35 % -> 145 sièges

ND : 30,5 % -> 82 sièges

Aube dorée : 8,5 % -> 23 sièges

To Potami : 5,5 % -> 15 sièges

KKE : 5 % -> 14 sièges

Pasok : 4,5 % -> 12 sièges

Anel : 3,5 % -> 9 sièges

Kidiso : 2,5 % -> 0 siège

Autres : 5 %

Turnout : 71 %

I'd gladly explain it to you, but I just spent the last two hours making a post about it in French on my blog, so go there if you like.

Short version : micro-surge for ND from scared voters, not anywhere near enough to overcome Syriza, XA has been underpolling the whole time, exactly like in 2012, and To Potami is a speculative bubble that will explode Sunday. Pretty much that, and Anel hangs on for their life.
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Zuza
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« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2015, 01:28:09 PM »

SYRIZA 35.1%
ND 32.9%
XA 6.6%
To Potami 6.1%
KKE 5.0%
PASOK 4.1%
Kinima 3.1%
ANEL 2.4%
LAOS 1.0%
DIMAR 0.8%
Others 2.9%
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2015, 01:48:20 PM »

I don't feel comfortable predicting the number of seats for each party or the percentages but here we go.

1. SYRIZA (between 145 and 149)
2. ND
3. Golden dawn
4. KKE (there will be a dogfight for 3rd place)
5. To Potami (also very close)
6. PASOK
7. Papandreou

Out of the parliament
8. ANEL
9. LAOS
10. Centrist Union
11. ANTARSYA-MARS
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palandio
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« Reply #10 on: January 23, 2015, 03:42:40 PM »

SYRIZA    36.3%
ND           31.4%
XA             7.2%
Potami      5.9%
KKE           4.8%
PASOK       4.6%
ANEL         3.7%
_____________
Kinima       2.5%
LAOS         1.2%
ANTARSYA 1.0%
DIMAR       0.8%
Others       0.6%
(Turnout 67%)
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #11 on: January 23, 2015, 03:50:05 PM »
« Edited: January 23, 2015, 03:53:48 PM by New Canadaland »

Both SYRIZA and ND do better than polling because of polarization, at the expense of Potami, KKE, PASOK, ANEL, DIMAR, Kinima, with the latter two getting under 3% and ANEL just over 3%. SYRIZA wins with 37% and 152 seats, ND trailing with 31%.

Disclaimer: I don't know much about Greek politics.
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Double Carpet
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« Reply #12 on: January 23, 2015, 04:24:48 PM »

Hi,

I hope this isn't breaking any site rules or going to upset anyone, but if anyone would like to play, I'm running a predictions competition for Greece here:

electiongame.co.uk/greece15/

There is also a Leaders & Finance 2015 game available, both close at 7pm GMT Saturday.

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SNJ1985
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« Reply #13 on: January 23, 2015, 10:00:09 PM »

I have no idea what exact percentages they will get, but I think these are the parties that are going to enter Parliament and how they will place:

1. SYRIZA
2. ND
3. XA
4. To Potami
5. KKE
6. PASOK
7. ANEL
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Dereich
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« Reply #14 on: January 24, 2015, 03:46:53 AM »

33% SYRIZA
30% ND
  8% XA
  7% Potami
  6% KKE
  4% PASOK
  3.8% ANEL
  3.2% Kinima
  5% Others
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #15 on: January 24, 2015, 04:59:57 AM »

35% True Leftists (Atlasian Labor Party flavor)
30% Useless Right-Wing Stooges
7% Freakish Nazis
6% Useless Moderate Heroes
5% True Leftists (M.E.L.S. flavor)
5% Mega-Super-Ultra-Useless Jimintō-Except-Left-Leaning
4% Maybe-Less-Useless-But-Kookier Right-Wing Stooges
3% LOLPapandreou
5% Other

Seats:

TL (ALP) 144
U-RWS 77
FN 19
U-MH 16
TL (MELS) 14
MSUU-JELL 12
MLUBK-RWS 10
LP 8

You know. Give or take.
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politicus
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« Reply #16 on: January 24, 2015, 05:06:30 AM »
« Edited: January 24, 2015, 05:22:17 AM by Charlotte Hebdo »

35% True Leftists (Atlasian Labor Party flavor) Syriza
30% Useless Right-Wing Stooges ND
7% Freakish Nazis XA
6% Useless Moderate Heroes Potami
5% True Leftists (M.E.L.S. flavor) ?? KKE
5% Mega-Super-Ultra-Useless Jimintō-Except-Left-Leaning Pasok
4% Maybe-Less-Useless-But-Kookier Right-Wing Stooges ANEL (the most useless of them all IMO) 3%
LOLPapandreou MDS
5% Other

I think I guessed it. I doubt Golden Dawn will go that high after being exposed as an actual criminal organization and with lots of other right wing choices. Having Pasok as more useless than ANEL is harsh indeed and I think Potami will turn out to be quite a useful party. They will develop into a Social Liberal party with focus on civil rights and good governance and Greece needs a moderate centre-right party to balance ND and preventing them from skewing too far to the right (by offering an alternative to moderate centre-right voters if they do).
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Bacon King
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« Reply #17 on: January 24, 2015, 05:11:13 AM »

Gonna go with my gut here, with an opinion heavily based on the patterns of previous pollster biases. On election night ND narrowly leads late into the evening until the counts from urban Athens precincts finally get released.

33.5% SYRIZA
32.0% ND
  8.1% XA
  6.7% KKE
  5.2% Potami
  3.9% PASOK
  2.8% ANEL
  2.4% Kinima
  2.1% ANTARSYA
  1.5% DIMAR
  1.2% LAOS
  0.6% others
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Nathan
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« Reply #18 on: January 24, 2015, 05:57:26 AM »

35% True Leftists (Atlasian Labor Party flavor) Syriza
30% Useless Right-Wing Stooges ND
7% Freakish Nazis XA
6% Useless Moderate Heroes Potami
5% True Leftists (M.E.L.S. flavor) ?? KKE
5% Mega-Super-Ultra-Useless Jimintō-Except-Left-Leaning Pasok
4% Maybe-Less-Useless-But-Kookier Right-Wing Stooges ANEL (the most useless of them all IMO) 3%
LOLPapandreou MDS
5% Other

I think I guessed it. I doubt Golden Dawn will go that high after being exposed as an actual criminal organization and with lots of other right wing choices. Having Pasok as more useless than ANEL is harsh indeed and I think Potami will turn out to be quite a useful party. They will develop into a Social Liberal party with focus on civil rights and good governance and Greece needs a moderate centre-right party to balance ND and preventing them from skewing too far to the right (by offering an alternative to moderate centre-right voters if they do).

I'd like to believe that about Potami too, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

I haven't been following the Greece general thread particularly avidly. Could you explain what's so awful about ANEL that they're more useless than PASOK?

(M.E.L.S. stands for 'Marx, Engels, Lenin, Stalin', incidentally. Mels was used as one of the various ridiculous constructed first names that Soviet citizens sometimes gave their children.)
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politicus
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« Reply #19 on: January 24, 2015, 06:33:48 AM »


I haven't been following the Greece general thread particularly avidly. Could you explain what's so awful about ANEL that they're more useless than PASOK?

(M.E.L.S. stands for 'Marx, Engels, Lenin, Stalin', incidentally. Mels was used as one of the various ridiculous constructed first names that Soviet citizens sometimes gave their children.)

1) I made a presentation of ANEL in the election thread mainly based on the view of two Greek politologists:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=204845.225

I have seen nothing that cotradicts their evaluation.

2) There is a party in Botswana (of all places) called MELS, so as an Southern Africa politics nerd I know it well.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #20 on: January 24, 2015, 07:16:16 AM »

Final prediction:

37.5% SYRIZA
27.5% ND
  7.5% XA
  7.0% Potami
  5.0% KKE
  5.0% PASOK
  4.0% ANEL
  3.0% Kinima
  3.5% Others

Turnout: 72%

MoE = +/- 1%
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YL
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« Reply #21 on: January 24, 2015, 10:36:00 AM »

Syriza 35
ND 28
Golden Dawn 8
Potami 7
KKE 6
PASOK 4
ANEL 4
Papandreou 3
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #22 on: January 24, 2015, 08:33:24 PM »

Throwing out a wild (and almost certainly) inaccurate guess.

35% SYRIZA
32.5% ND
  9.0% XA
  5.5% Potami
  5.0% KKE
  4.0% PASOK
  3.5% ANEL
  2.0% Kinima
  3.5% Others
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Oak Hills
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« Reply #23 on: January 24, 2015, 10:36:01 PM »

36% SYRIZA
32% ND
7% XA
6% Potami
5% KKE
4% PASOK
3% ANEL (barely makes the threshold)
2% Kinima
2% ANTARSYA
1% DIMAR
2% others
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Vosem
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« Reply #24 on: January 25, 2015, 12:41:17 AM »

Maybe it's too late, since the polls have opened, but I think I can sneak this one in. I thought of confidently predicting the ND victory that sane folk hope for, but, looking at polling, I don't think it'll come to pass.

Prediction:
SYRIZA 36.5 (149 seats)
ND 29.8 (81 seats)
To Potami 6.4 (17 seats)
XA 6.2 (17 seats)
KKE 5.1 (14 seats)
PASOK 4.9 (13 seats)
ANEL 3.4 (9 seats)
...
KIDISO 2.6
DIMAR 1.1
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