West Virginia

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, West Virginia is not set up to have a Senate election in 2016, but lets say Manchin does run for governor (which seems rather likely), there would be a special election in 2016. How competitive does this start? With West Virginia's trend, a Republican could be favored, though Manchin would probably be favored in the governor's race. Newly elected Evan Jenkins could try, as well as Patrick Morrisey (AG). Discuss.

Also, if this were to happen, West Virginia will have had a Senate election every cycle from 2006-2020.

[IceSpear]

Wouldn't it only be in 2016 if he resigned?

[Miles]

Almost no question Manchin gets the Governorship if he wants it; one of the sages at RRH (actually one of my favorites), Shamlet, is from WV and seems to agree.

Tennant ran about equally ahead of Obama in WV-03 as she did behind him in WV-02. Yes, Capito had some effect on that, but I think Manchin should appoint someone from the Charleston area. It would seem the Democrat will be guaranteed at least some crossover support in the coal areas, which are also casting fewer votes.

OTOH, its quite amazing how poorly Rahall ran in his 'base' counties in WV-03, so if Jenkins ran, he could kill much of that crossover support.

[ElectionsGuy]

Almost no question Manchin gets the Governorship if he wants it; one of the sages at RRH (actually one of my favorites), Shamlet, is from WV and seems to agree.

Tennant ran about equally ahead of Obama in WV-03 as she did behind him in WV-02. Yes, Capito had some effect on that, but I think Manchin should appoint someone from the Charleston area. It would seem the Democrat will be guaranteed at least some crossover support in the coal areas, which are also casting fewer votes.

OTOH, its quite amazing how poorly Rahall ran in his 'base' counties in WV-03, so if Jenkins ran, he could kill much of that crossover support.

What, there wouldn't be a special election and he would just appoint someone?

Wouldn't it only be in 2016 if he resigned?

Well that Senate seat is on the Class 3 cycle, meaning 2012-2018-2024 etc.

[Miles]

^ I was assuming whomever he appoints would run in 2018 (like with Hawaii last year, Schatz getting to serve two years via appointment). Duh, states laws vary; I should have checked.

This is what the state Constitution says:

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The NCSL says that Manchin's appointee would run in the next regular general election, which supports my Hawaii analogy.

[ElectionsGuy]

^ I was assuming whomever he appoints would run in 2018 (like with Hawaii last year, Schatz getting to serve two years via appointment). Duh, states laws vary; I should have checked.

This is what the state Constitution says:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The NCSL says that Manchin's appointee would run in the next regular general election, which supports my Hawaii analogy.

Ok, I kept thinking it was going to be a Tom Coburn situation, except with a run for another office, thanks for clarifying.

[Miles]

^ Oklahoma is literally the only state where the special election takes places when the Senator is still in office.