2018 TX Hypothetical
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2024, 10:49:42 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  2018 TX Hypothetical		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 2018 TX Hypothetical  (Read 3117 times)
ClimateDem
Rookie
**
Posts: 65
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 23, 2015, 06:54:47 PM »
Ted Cruz receives a strong challenge from the Republican establishment in Texas, but manages to eek out a narrow victory. However, Castro senses that this might be one of his only chances for statewide office until Texas's demographics become more favorable. He runs and receives the democratic nomination. Can he pick off a Cruz?
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2015, 07:00:30 PM »
No
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2015, 07:04:56 PM »
Midterm + Texas = no way
Logged
Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
Joshua
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,710
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -5.91

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2015, 07:23:05 PM »
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,325
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2015, 07:39:25 PM »
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,307
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2015, 07:52:04 PM »
Not unless a Republican wins in 2016 and 2018 is a Democratic wave.
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,267
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2015, 08:07:59 PM »
yes!

(providing Texas annexes a large swathe of Mexico beforehand)
Logged
badgate
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,466


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2015, 08:15:34 PM »
Which Castro?
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2015, 09:03:32 PM »
My point exactly with Castros being overhyped and overestimated
Logged
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
Dwarven Dragon
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,718
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.42, S: -0.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2015, 10:18:53 PM »
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 23, 2015, 10:19:57 PM »
Maybe if its 2022 instead, with a very unpopular Republican president
Logged
RTX
Rookie
**
Posts: 60
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: January 24, 2015, 12:35:34 AM »
No. Nobody outside of San Antonio really cares/knows about the Castros. While they play into the Democrats "it's all about demographics" broken record mantra, they really have nothing else to offer.
Logged
Württemberger
Rookie
**
Posts: 41
Germany
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: January 24, 2015, 11:24:55 AM »
Quote from: RTX on January 24, 2015, 12:35:34 AM
No. Nobody outside of San Antonio really cares/knows about the Castros. While they play into the Democrats "it's all about demographics" broken record mantra, they really have nothing else to offer.
Logged
Orser67
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,947
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: January 24, 2015, 04:21:23 PM »
With a Dem president, probably not. But if Republicans win in 2016 and Democrats have real success at boosting turnout in Texas, I don't think it's implausible that Cruz could have a real race on his hands in 2018.
Logged
Kushahontas
floating_to_sea
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,627
Kenya


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2015, 03:29:52 PM »
Quote from: RTX on January 24, 2015, 12:35:34 AM
No. Nobody outside of San Antonio really cares/knows about the Castros. While they play into the Democrats "it's all about demographics" broken record mantra, they really have nothing else to offer.

If anything, more National Dems give two sh[inks] about the Castros than almost all Texans who don't live in greater San Antonio (or Austin proper) tbh
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,864
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: January 25, 2015, 05:03:07 PM »
Cruz won't run in 2018, but if he does he'll have primary troubles and not be the GOP nominee.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: January 25, 2015, 05:04:34 PM »
Quote from: Del Tachi on January 25, 2015, 05:03:07 PM
Cruz won't run in 2018, but if he does he'll have primary troubles and not be the GOP nominee.

Why would he not? He's 44 and will not be the presidential nominee.
Logged
Vosem
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,637
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: January 25, 2015, 05:12:12 PM »
Quote from: Castro2020 on January 23, 2015, 10:19:57 PM
Maybe if its 2022 instead, with a very unpopular Republican president

There isn't a Senate race scheduled in Texas for 2022
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: January 25, 2015, 05:20:17 PM »
Quote from: Vosem on January 25, 2015, 05:12:12 PM
Quote from: Castro2020 on January 23, 2015, 10:19:57 PM
Maybe if its 2022 instead, with a very unpopular Republican president

There isn't a Senate race scheduled in Texas for 2022

I meant for Governor
Logged
Indy Texas
independentTX
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,272
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: -3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: January 25, 2015, 05:41:11 PM »
No.

But I think that if Cruz falls flat on his face with this imminent presidential campaign, he's going to have a big target on his back.

A primary challenge seems kind of inevitable. Getting rid of a one-termer loses little regarding seniority. He has no influence in the Republican Caucus anymore. He's burned so many bridges and poisoned so many wells that he's never going to get any decent chairmanships.
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,864
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: January 25, 2015, 08:49:37 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on January 25, 2015, 05:04:34 PM
Quote from: Del Tachi on January 25, 2015, 05:03:07 PM
Cruz won't run in 2018, but if he does he'll have primary troubles and not be the GOP nominee.

Why would he not? He's 44 and will not be the presidential nominee.

Because at this point he'd be just as effective as a right-wing radio talk show host as he is a U.S. Senator.

Cruz has absolutely zero political capital in Washington - the Senator realizes that and Texas Republicans also recognize it. 

And, if Cruz were interested in a 2020 presidential run, retirement in 2018 might be a better option for him because it would prevent him from having to take two years' worth of votes in advance of an election. 
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,772


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: January 26, 2015, 01:53:37 PM »
There is no chance that Texas statewide sends a Democrat to Washington. Statewide office is almost but not completely out.
Logged
andrew_c
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 454
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: January 28, 2015, 05:09:55 AM »
The only way a Democrat wins in this case is if Cruz loses the primary (because he's damaged goods), but runs as a Republican dissident, and siphons votes off the official Republican candidate.  That would split the right-wing vote, and the Democrat comes up the middle and wins, as long as they can get at least 40% statewide.  Otherwise, Democrats have no chance.
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,772


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: January 28, 2015, 11:33:21 PM »
Quote from: andrew_c on January 28, 2015, 05:09:55 AM
The only way a Democrat wins in this case is if Cruz loses the primary (because he's damaged goods), but runs as a Republican dissident, and siphons votes off the official Republican candidate.  That would split the right-wing vote, and the Democrat comes up the middle and wins, as long as they can get at least 40% statewide.  Otherwise, Democrats have no chance.

Texas has a sore loser law, you can't lose the primary and run in the general.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,680
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: January 28, 2015, 11:59:59 PM »
Quote from: xingkerui on January 23, 2015, 07:52:04 PM
Not unless a Republican wins in 2016 and 2018 is a Democratic wave.

Yes, and it would have to be 1930/1958/1974 level, a bigger wave than the recent midterms that probably requires the GOP president having <30% approval.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.057 seconds with 12 queries.