Chance Clinton Doesn't Run

[Blair]

I assumed that Webb was a pretty boring centrist who's running to get a Cabinet Job

[BlueSwan]

It's hilarious how Democrats are hanging onto her heels like a bunch of pathetic losers anyway, after what they did to her in 2008. I think it would be hilarious if she didn't run and just gave them all the big F.U.

That actually would be hilarious.

Surely you mean Hillary-us.

I give it a 15% chance she doesn't run.

[Xing]

I'll say 22.376% just to be precise.

[Jerseyrules]

As a Republican, I would love to have Elizabeth Warren as the Democratic nominee

Careful...that's what we said about Obama in 2008

[The Other Castro]

I assumed that Webb was a pretty boring centrist who's running to get a Cabinet Job

yep this

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I really hope she doesn't.

I hope she doesn't either. That way we can nominate an Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders and end up with a President Mitt Romney or President Jeb Bush.

That's what everyone thought in 1992 when only lightweights like Clinton ran instead of heavyweights like Cuomo, Gore, or Gephardt.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

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http://www.nytimes.com/1991/08/08/us/political-memo-democrats-distress-grows-as-presidential-field-shrinks.html

[SWE]

It's hilarious to me that people think Warren is somehow a worse candidate than Hillary

[TDAS04]

5-10% at most. 

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's hilarious to me that people think Warren is somehow a worse candidate than Hillary

Warren is polling worse than Hillary and has a far-left voting record. She's not electable in anything but an utter wave.

[dmmidmi]

I think the better question is: What are the chances that Clinton can't run?

Because if she can, she will.

[IceSpear]

There's quite a lot of absurdly high figures in this thread considering the stories we've seen about Hillary's team planning a fundraising blitz, already considering VP options, etc. People assume Republicans who have done much less are certainly running.

[IceSpear]

For example, just look at this article from today:

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http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/hillary-clinton-2016-elections-114586.html

If this was about ANYONE else, would people be giving ridiculously high figures like "30-35% chance they don't run"? I think many of these odds are based more on wishful thinking than anything else.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Finally, something definitive. However, I am putting a 10% chance on her changing her mind at the last minute.

[MATTROSE94]

Clinton not running is about as likely as Ted Cruz becoming a democrat.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Over hyped and overrated; remember in 2008? Hillary as we all know was the prohibitive favorite for the nomination and along came this guy Obama; so what makes me think,  even 'if' she gets the nomination, that doesn't mean she's got the election wrapped up. I recall that in 1960, Vice President Nixon was deemed a strong possibility for winning the presidency,  by virtue of the fact he had no primary competition,  what happened?  A guy called John Kennedy who had been seasoned and steeled by a vigorous primary campaign,  by virtue of the fact of him selecting Lyndon Johnson narrowly won that election. The lesson is this, Hillary might not have to endure a competitive primary campaign, that doesn't mean she has a lock on the election. For example say her opponent is one of the following individuals,  Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, John Kasich, Chris Christie or Rick Perry and one of these individuals go with a female Vice Presidential nominee, e.g. Joni Ernst, Haley,  Susanna Martinez or even Condoleezza Rice. Then everyone might need to throw out the conventional wisdom play book and go back to the drawing board. Democrats & Republicans don't have the wisdom of 20/20 vision in hindsight and as none of us are blessed with the ability of being able to see into the future. Everyone is clinging to the comfort blanket of C.W. & not learning from the lessons of history. Democrats have the hope that a movement conservative like Cruz, Paul, Huckster or Santorum will be the party's standard bearer and therefore the election is there's.  We Republicans are hungry, not stupid...I think cynical pragmatic thinking will prevail and our party will be looking at demographics and electoral votes, when the primary season gets closer. The election is going to be closely fought affair, Democrats are going to be angry that they have to fight for every vote,  all because Republicans are hungry and got smart. Anyone remember 1980? Jimmy Carter despite all the problems,  underestimated Reagan like every one else. But he didn't count on events or someone like John Anderson or the "there you go again" moment in that debate to produce the outcome we got. As the 1980 election illustrates,  depending on conventional wisdom is not a smart call. You have to consider events, issues, the identity of the candidates and yes even maybe those pesky debates. There are so many different scenarios to consider as well. Remember 1968? no one believed in January of that year, the events which would occur. The Tet offensive,  Bobby Kennedy running for President,  his assassination and the assassination of MLK,  the withdrawal of LBJ from the presidential contest,  the riots in Chicago & what happened?  Well the rest is history. The object lesson is this, there will be different dynamics and paradigm's at play in 2016. You heard it here. So please take note.

¶

[All Along The Watchtower]

It's hilarious how Democrats are hanging onto her heels like a bunch of pathetic losers anyway, after what they did to her in 2008. I think it would be hilarious if she didn't run and just gave them all the big F.U.

Obama won. She didn't.

[Knives]

It's hilarious how Democrats are hanging onto her heels like a bunch of pathetic losers anyway, after what they did to her in 2008. I think it would be hilarious if she didn't run and just gave them all the big F.U.

Obama won. She didn't.

Hillary got more votes.

[All Along The Watchtower]

It's hilarious how Democrats are hanging onto her heels like a bunch of pathetic losers anyway, after what they did to her in 2008. I think it would be hilarious if she didn't run and just gave them all the big F.U.

Obama won. She didn't.

Hillary got more votes.

And?

No offense, but this sounds kind of like the Republicans who always claimed (back in the 40s/50s, at least) that the "Eastern kingmakers" would block a popular conservative candidate from winning their party's nomination.  Sour grapes, and what not.