Republican Iowa dropouts

[OldDominion]

Per the title, which Republican candidate will be most likely to drop out after Iowa? Why? Lack of momentum, slowing funds, scandal, running for the PR? You decide.

Included as many as possible without the perennials. Fundies and potential non-starters toward the  bottom of the list to make it easier.

[ElectionsGuy]

Rick Perry

[Vega]

I didn't know he was even considering running but definitely Jim Gilmore.

[IceSpear]

Probably multiple people, but of these, losing Iowa would kill Huckabee's chances the most.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Jindal - he's wasted his entire governorship sucking up to SoCons. Perry is next most likely.

Gilmore, Bachmann could be before. Who even knows with Carson?

Santorum is cocky enough to stay in.

[Indy Texas]

Jim Gilmore is running?! Did he forget that nobody knew who the hell he was in 2008 and they still don't?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Probably anyone placing 6th or lower, provided that they don't have a very strong infrastructure in NH/NV/SC. 4th/5th might drop out if their donor base was weak before the caucus. 1st/2nd/3rd are almost certain to stay in, with two exceptions: Huck will drop out if he gets anything less than 1st, Santorum will drop out if he gets anything less than 2nd.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Most of these will either not run or drop out before Iowa.  Rick Perry seems like he is the most likely to stay in until then and stake everything on Iowa and then have no success there.

[Mr. Morden]

I didn't know he was even considering running but definitely Jim Gilmore.

From the Tea Leaves thread:

Gilmore is also said to have a NH trip in the works later this month, and had this to say when asked about another presidential run:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/gilmore-raises-national-profile-wont-rule-out-presidential-bid/2014/12/29/081dadc0-8ac9-11e4-9e8d-0c687bc18da4_story.html?hpid=z3

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[Bull Moose Base]

Iowa is really hard to predict. I'm pretty sure that between Santorum, Romney, Paul, Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann and Cain, Santorum (the eventual winner) was the only one to never lead a statewide poll in Iowa. I'm too lazy to check but I also think Santorum was polling about even with Bachmann (who finished 6th and dropped out after Iowa) only a week or two before Caucus Day. We'll again have a lot of candidates with similar appeal (Cruz, Jindal, Perry, Walker, Carson, Huckabee, Santorum, Paul and if he runs, Pence) meaning an unexpected gaffe or story can sway voters in ways that are hard to predict a year, or even a month in advance. Nor do I think conservative vote-splitting will help the moderates much with many of Romney, Bush, Christie, Fiorina, Graham and Rubio likely to run. (Also, Romney couldn't even win it in 2012 when he was the lone moderate competing against multiple conservatives.) This is all a long way of saying don't believe anyone who tells you they have the slightest idea what will happen in Iowa other than a chaotic race, bloody free-for-all debates and hopefully a series of hilarious gaffes.

[Suburbia]

Most likely Rick Perry.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm too lazy to check but I also think Santorum was polling about even with Bachmann (who finished 6th and dropped out after Iowa) only a week or two before Caucus Day.

Pretty much true, yes.  PPP poll of Iowa taken from Dec. 26th-27th:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920111227108

Paul 24%
Romney 20%
Gingrich 13%
Bachmann 11%
Perry 10%
Santorum 10%

Actual caucus result (Jan. 3rd):

Santorum 25%
Romney 25%
Paul 21%
Gingrich 13%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 5%

[stegosaurus]

Huckabee and Santorum are both completely screwed if they don't win Iowa.

[Del Tachi]

I do not think Walker, Santorum, Huckabee, Cruz, Palin Bachmann, Carson or Perry would have conceivable paths to the GOP nomination without winning in Iowa, and thus would be the most likely to drop-out soon after coming up short in the Hawkeye State. 

[Jerseyrules]

Probably Carson.  He seems like a really down-to-earth guy but there's no way he becomes a serious candidate.  For some reason, a lot of my elderly relatives seem to like him though...