Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac:

CO:

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IA:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2157

[pbrower2a]

Missouri:

In the survey, conducted for Missouri Scout, a political newsletter, Blunt has a 39% favorability rating, while Kander comes in at 26%. But fully 54% of the likely voters have no opinion of Kander, meaning he has room to develop his image as he campaigns and becomes better known.

http://fox4kc.com/2015/02/20/blunt-beats-kander-in-early-political-poll/

These polls are of approval and not favorability. But 39% favorability is undeniably awful. I cannot translate that to approval.

Blunt looks vulnerable.

Do you think he is more vulnerable than Toomey?

1. Pennsylvania and Missouri are very different states. 

At 43% or so approval, Pat Toomey is very close to the ceiling for a right-wing Republican incumbent. In a high-turnout election Toomey will have a tough time getting re-elected. A competent challenger can defeat him.

Pennsylvania was about D+1 in the Presidential election in 2012. Missouri was about R+10 in 2012. 2008? Pennsylvania was about D+1 , and Missouri was R+4.

There's a huge difference between D+1 and R+7 in opportunities for candidates of the other two parties.   

If I saw 39% approval for Blunt, then the question would be whether the opposition could find someone else. 

2. Favorability and approval are not the same thing. Of course some questions confuse the two in context; one must watch for that. Favorability is like vs. dislike; approval is how well one likes the job that the pol is doing. Translating between the two is tricky. 

3. How big were the margins in the elections in which the two got elected or re-elected?

Blunt won 54-41 over a Democratic opponent in 2010, with 3% of the vote going to a Libertarian; Toomey won 51-49. A shift of 2% solely as the result of an increased electorate with nothing else happening defeats Toomey -- but not Blunt. The Democratic challenger to Blunt must campaign vigorously and effectively to counteract the rightward drift of Missouri.

See what I said about Arkansas, where Senator Boozman has a 40% approval rating.

Sure, it is possible to buck the partisan trend in a state, as I will soon show with Senator Grassley in Iowa.  But Chuck Grassley has been around seemingly forever and has been riding a reputation as a moderate for years.

4. Neither is likely to do something catastrophic to their campaigns -- like claim that a child by a rape is a blessing to the mother. We can forget that one. That is a wash.

5. Both have similar voting records except that Toomey voted for some gun-control bill. A right-wing voting record wins in a right-wing state. A right-wing voting record can and will be used against a right-wing pol in a Lean-D state.

6. THE BIG ONE -- the Koch brothers have committed $889 million to the 2016 campaign to maintain GOP majority in the House of Representatives and a Senate majority. In a close election that money with a sharp focus could save Toomey.
 

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, Colorado and Iowa (no Senator is up for re-election in Virginia in 2016:

4abc-15abc. Do you approve or disapprove of the way - (CO) Cory Gardner, Michael Bennet / (IA) Joni Ernst, Chuck Grassley / (VA) Tim Kaine, Mark Warner - is handling (his/her) job as United States Senator?

                     CO................      IA..................    VA............
                     Gardner     Bennet      Ernst       Grassley    Kaine   Warner
 
Approve              36%         39%         42%         67%         53%     62%
Disapprove           26          28          26          21          28      23
DK/NA                39          33          32          13          19      15

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2157

The only question that I could have about  Grassley is about health (age).  Bennett is shaky.

High ratings for both incumbent Senators from VA bodes well for Democrats overall in Virginia.

Yes, I think that the Republicans have a better chance picking off Senator Bennett in Colorado than they have of protecting Senator Toomey.
 

[pbrower2a]

So we now know what an incumbent Democratic Senator  looks like if shaky.

[IceSpear]

Pretty crazy that Warner has a 62-23 approval rating, considering what just happened...

[pbrower2a]

Other parts of the poll (PA):

Approval:
Obama - 44-48
Wolf - 37-13
Toomey - 35-25
Casey - 40-22
Kane - 26-33


http://www.mcall.com/mc-acrobat-morning-call-poll-politics-20150219-acrobat.html

This is a poll of 'adults',  so I cannot use it.

[pbrower2a]

The first poll of the expected jungle primary in California.

Harris: 34%
Dreier: 19%
Villaraigosa: 16%
Bono(R): 14%
Schiff: 4%

http://www.scribd.com/doc/255307252/California-Poll-Results

Villaraigosa is dropping out, and it is hard to see how Dreier would pick up enough votes to lead K. Harris.

California goes to Solid D in 2016 for this. Republicans would have to finish #1 and #2 in the jungle primary  to have a meaningful chance of winning the open Senate seat (and that scenario would be a sure thing).

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/02/barbara-mikulski-retiring_n_6783368.html

[pbrower2a]

PPP, North Carolina

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/03/mccrory-leads-cooper-by-just-2.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kander has the better chance of bucking the partisan trend. Since, this wasnt discussed earlier, McCaskill won convincingly in 2012. Granted it was a Todd Akin moment, Missouri does still have alliegience to Dems. This is my upset special if the election night, Strickland, Duckworth, Feingold, Kander, Bennett and Sestak wins, while Reid loses narrowly. And Hickenlooper sits in the tied senate, as President.

[pbrower2a]

Open seats in California and Maryland will obviously go D.

[pbrower2a]

This is what an extremely vulnerable Republican incumbent looks like:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/03/feingold-leads-johnson-in-rematch.html

(Senator Ron Johnson affixed his name to the Open Letter to the government of Iran, but the polling was from before that).

[pbrower2a]

This is what a non-vulnerable Democrat looks like -- statistically.

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2175

[Flake]

Why aren't you putting numbers with all of them?

[pbrower2a]

Why aren't you putting numbers with all of them?

Here's what happens if I put a number on a small state (in area):
 

This is what a non-vulnerable Democrat looks like -- statistically.

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2175

OK, if I avoid using approval numbers for states for whose incumbent Senator has an approval over 60%, I will not have that problem in New England. The only one whose approval number in New England could be under 60% will be Kelly Ayotte, The "58's" on this map is of course purely fictional, being used only as an illustration.  

Let's try that with Leahy with an approval of 64% and no numbers shown for over 60%:

[pbrower2a]

Why aren't you putting numbers with all of them?

I can do so, so long as I give approval numbers only 55% (no vulnerability) or less.

Thus:

It looks neat enough for me.

[pbrower2a]

Florida, PPP:

Rubio 45-40.

Could lose to a strong and relevant campaigner. Prediction: The US Senate race in Florida will be the most expensive of all US Senate campaigns  in 2016.



http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_32415.pdf

[pbrower2a]

Breaking: Senator Coats (R-IN) will not run for re-election.

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http://indypolitics.org/2015/03/24/coats-not-running-for-re-election/

...A change from here on:

I am showing the party of the incumbent Senator not running for re-election.

[pbrower2a]

Senator Harry Reid (D-NV) announces that he will not run for re-election:

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/27/harry-reid-retirement_n_6954262.html

[pbrower2a]

Franklin&Marshall College, Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey, R-PA)

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http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/943825657393157904-franklin-marshall-college-poll-march-2015.pdf

Damning with faint praise!

Not in the approve-disapprove format or in something that one can relate to it (like grades of A, B, C, D, and F).

"Excellent", "Good", and "Poor"  are clear enough... but "Fair" is ambiguous. "Fair" performance by a seven-year-old violinist is something that one praises a child for. "Fair" performance by an adult on stage is something that you would feel cheated for buying a ticket to see. 

Not usable for my purposes. But a combined 31% "excellent" or "good" isn't good for an incumbent Senator.

High turnout sinks Pat Toomey in 2016. If he hasn't been the sick joke that Tom Cotton or Marco Rubio have become, he is far from solid.

[Ebsy]

Democrats should probably Kay Hagan Pennsylvania and just spend insane sums of money on attack ads to sink Toomey's favorables underwater.

[pbrower2a]

Democrats should probably Kay Hagan Pennsylvania and just spend insane sums of money on attack ads to sink Toomey's favorables underwater.

"Unless you are a billionaire, Senator Toomey is not your friend".

[pbrower2a]

Senator Menendez has been indicted. I may have a partisan bias, but I have an even stronger bias -- against corruption. Quite frankly, I hope that he resigns.


...Now suppose that he resigns. The gray space for New Jersey goes from gray to white 

Now see what happens if a Republican is appointed to the vacated Senate seat:

Now see what happens if a Democrat is appointed to the vacated Senate seat:

The asterisk indicates an appointed incumbent.

Until then:

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac polls are fishy this time. Portman (OH) and Toomey (PA) both have approvals very close to the safe 50% range (49% each)  but Toomey would crush the fellow he defeated in 2010 and Portman would be crushed by a likely challenger. 

[pbrower2a]

PPP, North Carolina. Burr picked up a little.... approval awful but not much less than disapproval. He does lead every potential Democratic nominee by double digits.

Fluid situation, but probably as good as it could be for now with 36% approval. A Democratic wave gets him out of the Senate, but such is what it will take. He will surely have copious resources behind his re-election campaign. 


Q7
Do you approve or disapprove of Senator
Richard Burr’s job performance?
 36%  Approve
..........................................................
 37% Disapprove
......................................................
 27% Not sure
.........................................................

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_40815.pdf