Approval of incumbent US Senators up for re-election

[pbrower2a]

Bennet (D-CO), the Q:

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Grassley, (R-IA), the Q:

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Current D Senators from Virginia not up for re-election in 2016, the Q:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2186

[pbrower2a]

Germane because there could be a Senate seat opening in New Jersey:

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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=2187

...Other Democrats and Democratic-friendly agendas are doing fine in New Jersey. President Obama now has approval in the 50s -- up from the mid-40s. Where Senator Menendez disagrees with President Obama (Iran and Cuba), President Obama is on the more popular side.

[pbrower2a]

PPP. New Hampshire, Kelly Ayotte:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 43%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_41615.pdf   

[pbrower2a]

Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Johnny Isaacson, R-Georgia:

Approve 38%
Disapprove 30%.

http://www.myajc.com/news/jan-2016-poll/

The good news for him is that the disapproval is low. The bad news is that he needs approval well over 38% to win re-election.  One more potential Republican vulnerability.

(Note the restoration of polls in Arizona and Missouri and an estimate for Utah).

[Skye]

Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Johnny Isaacson, R-Georgia:

Approve 38%
Disapprove 30%.

http://www.myajc.com/news/jan-2016-poll/

The good news for him is that the disapproval is low. The bad news is that he needs approval well over 38% to win re-election.  One more potential Republican vulnerability.

What? No he doesn't. This is Georgia, not Massachusetts. Besides, it means not enough people know him, not that he's unpopular.

[pbrower2a]

The good news is that the disapproval is low. The bad news is that he needs approval well over 38% to win re-election.  One more potential Republican vulnerability.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

If you want to question the poll, then such is your choice. It is from a well-respected newspaper, a regional powerhouse.

An incumbent Democratic Senator in Michigan (which has no incumbent Senator up for re-election would be vulnerable by the criteria that I use if he had an approval rate of 38%.

At this point, 50% or greater approval -- super-safe, as for Grassley and Scott.

45-49% -- better than 50% chance of re-election. The typical campaign of an incumbent running for re-election gets about a 6% gain in the vote share in a binary election.

44% -- break-even.

42-43% -- slightly-less than a 50% chance of re-election. (This suggests that Toomey will barely win or lose in Pennsylvania).  

40-41% -- everything must go right (weak opponent, good national climate)

below 40% -- big trouble.  

[pbrower2a]

The other polling thread on this topic, with a similar name, is now locked. We don't need both threads active; such can only create confusion.

[pbrower2a]

Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Johnny Isaacson, R-Georgia:

Approve 38%
Disapprove 30%.

http://www.myajc.com/news/jan-2016-poll/

The good news for him is that the disapproval is low. The bad news is that he needs approval well over 38% to win re-election.  One more potential Republican vulnerability.

What? No he doesn't. This is Georgia, not Massachusetts. Besides, it means not enough people know him, not that he's unpopular.

The low name recognition is not going to help him. If he has been a US Senator for five years plus, he needs to have created some cause for recognition. There are Democrats who have recognition from losing campaigns in 2014, and they can build upon promises made in losing campaigns.

I'm not calling it now, by any means. He is not in as poor a position as Senators Kirk (IL) or Johnson (WI), to be sure. It's not hard to see either one of them as nearly-sure losses for the GOP in November. But he can lose even if the state that he represents is Georgia. But 38% approval still bodes ill for his chance of getting re-elected, especially if the money spend on Republican Senatorial campaigns is spread thin.   A strong opponent defeats him in a Presidential year.

[pbrower2a]

A poll of Arizona shows John McCain up by only 1% against his most likely Democratic opponent and weak in the primary challenge. Worse for him, the lead is only 38% to 37% with a huge number of undecided.

Nobody can say this is for a lack of name recognition. I call this one a toss-up, down from "Edge R". 

http://www.brcpolls.com/16/RMP%202016-I-01.pdf

At this time he needs to poll over 40% to have much of a chance of winning re-election, and about 44% to have a 50-50 chance of re-election. Contrast Chuck Grassley in Iowa, whose re-election seems all but assured.   

[pbrower2a]

Toomey, Portman Hurt By Supreme Court Stance
Date: 2-22-16
New Public Policy Polling surveys of Pennsylvania and Ohio find that both Pat Toomey and Rob Portman are suffering from very weak approval numbers as they seek reelection to the Senate. Furthermore voters in their states, by wide margins, want the vacancy on the Supreme Court to be filled this year. Their opposition to even considering a replacement for Antonin Scalia has the strong potential to put them in even worse standing with voters than they are already.
 
Key findings from the survey include:

-Only 29% of voters approve of the job Toomey is doing to 40% who disapprove, and just 30% approve of the job Portman is doing to 39% who disapprove. They’re both very much in the danger zone for reelection based on those low approval numbers. One thing complicating their path to reelection is how  bad the overall brand of Senate Republicans is. Mitch McConnell has a 13/56 approval rating in Pennsylvania, and a 14/57 one in Ohio. His extreme unpopularity is going to be a weight on his party’s incumbents running across the country.
 
-Strong majorities of voters- 58/35 in Ohio and 57/40 in Pennsylvania- think that the vacant seat on the Supreme Court should be filled this year. What’s particularly noteworthy about those numbers- and concerning for Portman and Toomey- is how emphatic the support for approving a replacement is among independent voters. In Ohio they think a new Justice should be named this year 70/24 and in Pennsylvania it’s 60/37. Those independent voters are going to make the difference in these tight Senate races, and they have no tolerance for obstructionism on the vacancy.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/OHPASupremeCourtPolls22216.pdf

My comment: I predict that Republicans are not going to risk electoral defeat to prevent the filling of a vacant US Supreme Court seat.