Future of Greece

[Mehmentum]

I'm not sure myself.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Either 1 or 3, leaning towards 3.

[politicus]

Either 1 or 3, leaning towards 3 1.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Either 1 or 3, leaning towards 3 1.

[Velasco]

Either 1 or 3, leaning towards 3.

[swl]

3

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https://euobserver.com/news/127388

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Either 1 or 3, leaning towards 3 1.

[Ashbringer]

Statu quo

[jaichind]

EU already agreed in November with Greece on pushing back deadline for repayments to 2057, Italy’s newspaper la Repubblica reports, without saying where it got the information.  The deal, which was to remain “secret,” includes first repayments only in 2020.  Under deal, interest on bilateral loans from EU lowered to 3-month interbank rate +50bp, equal to 0.53% currently.

[ag]

I would say, 1 and 3. It will leave Eurozone, stay in the EU and get some aid to help its citizens survive leaving the Eurozone.

[Beezer]

Probably minor concessions. Although I'm less sure about that than I was 48 hours ago. Tsipras has really gotten himself into a position where expected EU concessions (extension of bond maturities and so forth) will be regarded as nothing short of a surrender by his base.

[Mehmentum]

I started out thinking option #3 was most likely, but now I'm leaning toward #1.

[angus]

I voted for the first option a couple of days ago without thinking much about it, but this morning I had a conversation with a Greek colleague about this.  She had spoken with her mother, who lives in Greece, on the telephone yesterday and they talked of this topic at some length.  What I found most striking is that she used the phrased "kicked out of" the eurozone rather than the phrase "exiting" the eurozone.  She also talked quite a bit about the Church, which apparently has enough holdings to pay off the entire national debt.  Anyway, she and her mother favor major concessions over all other alternatives.

[ag]

Anyway, she and her mother favor major concessions over all other alternatives.

Who wouldn´t? Major concessions would be great - for those enjoying them. But in order to get major concessions, they would need to pay with major concessions. What is that going to be? Shipping the remnants of Parthenon to Berlin for 99 years? Selling Eastern Thrace to Turkey? What else do they have?

[Mehmentum]

I voted for the first option a couple of days ago without thinking much about it, but this morning I had a conversation with a Greek colleague about this.  She had spoken with her mother, who lives in Greece, on the telephone yesterday and they talked of this topic at some length.  What I found most striking is that she used the phrased "kicked out of" the eurozone rather than the phrase "exiting" the eurozone.  She also talked quite a bit about the Church, which apparently has enough holdings to pay off the entire national debt.  Anyway, she and her mother favor major concessions over all other alternatives.

The real question is would they rather get minor concessions or leave the Eurozone entirely?

In order for a 'grexit' to happen, the troika has to be unwilling to give major concessions AND Syriza has to be unwilling to accept minor concessions.

Given the large number of people answering 1 or 3 over 2, the sense of people on this board is that the EU won't be willing to give Greece major concessions.  The question then becomes would Syriza rather accept what the EU is willing to give them, or leave the Eurozone.

[angus]

The real question is would they rather get minor concessions or leave the Eurozone entirely?

I agree.  

I wouldn't put too much stock in an unscientific poll of yankees who value political fora over having social lives, and I wouldn't put too much stock in one data point gathered by one obnoxious yankee from a green card-holding permanent US resident from Greece.  

I am a little bit sympathetic toward the greeks given the fact that the interest rates suggested are so high compared to most other rates of return nowadays.  Portugal seems a little on the high side as well, but that's probably best reserved for another thread.

I do think that if I were Greek I'd rather have a drachma that my own government could at least partially control.  Then again, I also think that if I were German I'd rather have a Deutschesmark that my own government could at least partially control, so you may not want to take my opinion too seriously.

[Mehmentum]

Bump.

[ag]

FEROG, as it has been said.