MN-07: Peterson planning to run in 2016

[Miles]

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He'd keep the seat safe, but Democrats should be hoping that 2016 and 2018 are a package deal with him. It would be better for Peterson to hand off the seat in a Presidential year.

[socaldem]

If Peterson stays until 2020, his seat can be sacrificed in redistricting.

I imagine they can create a unified Democratic North Country seat. Combine the central MN exurbs of district 6,7, and 8 into a super GOP district and allow the Twin City districts to swallow up the inner ring suburbs from District 6.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Peterson stays until 2020, his seat can be sacrificed in redistricting.

I imagine they can create a unified Democratic North Country seat. Combine the central MN exurbs of district 6,7, and 8 into a super GOP district and allow the Twin City districts to swallow up the inner ring suburbs from District 6.

Keep in mind the dems ability to gerrymander like that would depend on them having control of the MN house during the redistricting time period. It's a pretty swingy chamber, so no guarantees. (Republican Controlled after 2004/2010/2014, Democratic Controlled after 2006/2008/2012)

[ElectionsGuy]

If Peterson stays until 2020, his seat can be sacrificed in redistricting.

I imagine they can create a unified Democratic North Country seat. Combine the central MN exurbs of district 6,7, and 8 into a super GOP district and allow the Twin City districts to swallow up the inner ring suburbs from District 6.

Keep in mind the dems ability to gerrymander like that would depend on them having control of the MN house during the redistricting time period. It's a pretty swingy chamber, so no guarantees. (Republican Controlled after 2004/2010/2014, Democratic Controlled after 2006/2008/2012)

Having a governor would obviously be important too, though the Republicans ability to win statewide elections in Minnesota is pretty pathetic, so it probably won't happen.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If Peterson stays until 2020, his seat can be sacrificed in redistricting.

I imagine they can create a unified Democratic North Country seat. Combine the central MN exurbs of district 6,7, and 8 into a super GOP district and allow the Twin City districts to swallow up the inner ring suburbs from District 6.

Keep in mind the dems ability to gerrymander like that would depend on them having control of the MN house during the redistricting time period. It's a pretty swingy chamber, so no guarantees. (Republican Controlled after 2004/2010/2014, Democratic Controlled after 2006/2008/2012)

Having a governor would obviously be important too, though the Republicans ability to win statewide elections in Minnesota is pretty pathetic, so it probably won't happen.

Dayton got a mediocre challenger last year, and his margin was only about half of what Franken's was. If Republicans can get Paulsen/Coleman/maybe Kline or Seifert to run in 2018, they'd have a credible shot, especially if there's a third partier getting 8-10%, which happens fairly often. (And considering Pawlenty won in the neutral year of 2002 and then in a democratic wave in 2006, it doesn't even necessarily have to be a 2014-style climate.)

[Brewer]

If Peterson stays until 2020, his seat can be sacrificed in redistricting.

I imagine they can create a unified Democratic North Country seat. Combine the central MN exurbs of district 6,7, and 8 into a super GOP district and allow the Twin City districts to swallow up the inner ring suburbs from District 6.

Keep in mind the dems ability to gerrymander like that would depend on them having control of the MN house during the redistricting time period. It's a pretty swingy chamber, so no guarantees. (Republican Controlled after 2004/2010/2014, Democratic Controlled after 2006/2008/2012)

Having a governor would obviously be important too, though the Republicans ability to win statewide elections in Minnesota is pretty pathetic, so it probably won't happen.

Dayton got a mediocre challenger last year, and his margin was only about half of what Franken's was. If Republicans can get Paulsen/Coleman/maybe Kline or Seifert to run in 2018, they'd have a credible shot, especially if there's a third partier getting 8-10%, which happens fairly often. (And considering Pawlenty won in the neutral year of 2002 and then in a democratic wave in 2006, it doesn't even necessarily have to be a 2014-style climate.)

Eh, Paulsen running seems improbable, and I doubt the others you named would have any shot. The only other potential candidate with significant name recognition that I could think of would be Kurt Daudt, depending on how he handles the House in the next couple (hopefully only two) years, but I also doubt his ability to win with the ultraconservative record he's racked up. The MN GOP has a pretty pathetic bench unless a real rising star pops up in between now and 2017.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Peterson stays until 2020, his seat can be sacrificed in redistricting.

I imagine they can create a unified Democratic North Country seat. Combine the central MN exurbs of district 6,7, and 8 into a super GOP district and allow the Twin City districts to swallow up the inner ring suburbs from District 6.

Keep in mind the dems ability to gerrymander like that would depend on them having control of the MN house during the redistricting time period. It's a pretty swingy chamber, so no guarantees. (Republican Controlled after 2004/2010/2014, Democratic Controlled after 2006/2008/2012)

Having a governor would obviously be important too, though the Republicans ability to win statewide elections in Minnesota is pretty pathetic, so it probably won't happen.

Dayton got a mediocre challenger last year, and his margin was only about half of what Franken's was. If Republicans can get Paulsen/Coleman/maybe Kline or Seifert to run in 2018, they'd have a credible shot, especially if there's a third partier getting 8-10%, which happens fairly often. (And considering Pawlenty won in the neutral year of 2002 and then in a democratic wave in 2006, it doesn't even necessarily have to be a 2014-style climate.)

Coleman, Seifert, and Kline probably aren't electable statewide at this point.  I doubt Paulsen runs, and even if he does, he'd probably start as no more than a credible underdog/wave insurance.

[henster]

Lori Swanson would be very formidable she fits the state perfectly.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lori Swanson would be very formidable she fits the state perfectly.

You're right about her formidability (she was re-elected by 14 points in 2014), but I'd be surprised if she actually ran. Attorney General -- Congresswoman is a significant step down.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

She also lives in Eagan.

[Brewer]

Lori Swanson would be very formidable she fits the state perfectly.

You're right about her formidability (she was re-elected by 14 points in 2014), but I'd be surprised if she actually ran. Attorney General -- Congresswoman is a significant step down.

[socaldem]

Lori Swanson would be very formidable she fits the state perfectly.

You're right about her formidability (she was re-elected by 14 points in 2014), but I'd be surprised if she actually ran. Attorney General -- Congresswoman is a significant step down.

I think the implication is that Lori Swanson is the Governor in-waiting, not that she will succeed Peterson. The governor's race discussion resulted from comment on the redistricting implications of Peterson's reelection plans.

[Vosem]

Peterson was held to his lowest margin since the 1990s in 2014 (54-46), and 2016 will be a more nationalized race. I doubt he'll lose, but if we keep up the pressure on him (Westrom ran a very good campaign, I'd like to see us get him again) we can hopefully defeat him outright in 2018 or 2020, prior to the next redistricting.