Rothenberg & Gonzalez initial gubernatorial ratings (2015-2016)

[Xing]

Link.

I'd say that some states, like KY and MT are a bit optimistic for Democrats, but I agree with IN being Likely R instead of Safe R.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It's not clear if the republicans will find a strong challenger in Montana. AG Tim Fox has said No, Zinke will probably run for re-election and then challenge Tester in 2018, and no one prominent seems truly interested in the race. So I can see the reasoning with that rating.

Vermont should be Likely D due to Shumlin's surprising and completely unforeseen weakness in 2014. Washington should be Likely D as the last three gubernatorial races have all been competitive, and Louisiana should be at only Likely R until we get an outright refusal from Mitch Landrieu (Louisiana's filing deadline isn't until September (Jungle is in October, Runoff is in November), so Landrieu can certainly take his time deciding).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Conway
Manchin
Cooper

Vitter
Bryant
Pence