Feb 7th Delhi Assembly elections

[jaichind]

AAP   35   +13
BJP    11   -11   
INC     4     -1
BSP    0     
JD(U)  0     -1

[jaichind]

NDTV projects

AAP 46-50
BJP  13-17
INC  4-8
OTH  1

[ag]

NDTV projects

AAP 46-50
BJP  13-17
INC  4-8
OTH  1

That is a big win

[jaichind]

Kiran Bedi, CM candidate of BJP seems to be behind in Krishna Nagar.  This is a BJP stronghold so I am sure this will reverse itself soon.

[ag]

Kiran Bedi, CM candidate of BJP seems to be behind in Krishna Nagar.  This is a BJP stronghold so I am sure this will reverse itself soon.

Well, she can always go back and tow Kejriwal's car

[jaichind]

AAP   39   +16
BJP    11   -12 
INC     3     -3
BSP    0     
JD(U)  0     -1

Looking like the earlier trends were wrong.  This is turning into AAP landslide.

[ag]

AAP   39   +16
BJP    11   -12 
INC     3     -3
BSP    0     
JD(U)  0     -1

Looking like the earlier trends were wrong.  This is turning into AAP landslide.

yeah, there will be a party in the office tomorrow

[jaichind]

Kiran Bedi, CM candidate of BJP seems to be behind in Krishna Nagar.  This is a BJP stronghold so I am sure this will reverse itself soon.

Well, she can always go back and tow Kejriwal's car

Only about 14% of the vote is in and she is behind by 3%.  Pretty sure she will win once more votes comes in.

[jaichind]

AAP   43   +18
BJP    11   -14
INC     3     -3
BSP    0     
JD(U)  0     -1

In 2014 LS elections, BJP actually won 60 out of 70 assembly segments.  Now they are looking at around 15.  What a massive swing. 

[jaichind]

Indian markets fell yesterday based on exit polls for Delhi on the premise that Modi will lose economic reform momentum if he loses political capital in this election.  Looks like this is confirmed. 

[ag]

Indian markets fell yesterday based on exit polls for Delhi on the premise that Modi will lose economic reform momentum if he loses political capital in this election.  Looks like this is confirmed. 

Good.

And I am all for reform.

[jaichind]

And to think that BJP had a 20%+ lead in opinion polls back in December when the election campaign started.  If they went for elections after LS elections last year they would have won with 40-45 seats for sure if not greater.

[ag]

And to think that BJP had a 20%+ lead in opinion polls back in December when the election campaign started.  If they went for elections after LS elections last year they would have won with 40-45 seats for sure if not greater.

Look up Krishna Nagar again.

[jaichind]

AAP   52   +24
BJP    12   -18
INC     2     -5
BSP    0     
JD(U)  0     -1

[ag]

AAP   52   +24
BJP    12   -18
INC     2     -5
BSP    0     
JD(U)  0     -1

This is a wipeout if it holds.  Ridiculously good.

[jaichind]

Looks like I was wrong about INC.  I figured that INC voters would tactically vote for AAP in seats where BJP is competitive and perhaps BJP voters might vote INC in these districts to help beat back AAP.  Instead it seems the entire INC vote base has gone over to AAP. 

[jaichind]

AAP   55   +27
BJP    11   -19
INC     1     -7
INLD   1    +1
BSP    0     
JD(U)  0     -1

INLD is ahead in Najafgarh where it ran second to BJP in 2013 with AAP third.

[ag]

Looks like I was wrong about INC.  I figured that INC voters would tactically vote for AAP in seats where BJP is competitive and perhaps BJP voters might vote INC in these districts to help beat back AAP.  Instead it seems the entire INC vote base has gone over to AAP. 

BJP has a problem: there are too many people whom they scare, and even more are scared of Modi. They can win over divided opposition, but if people figure out who has no chance, they vote appropriately.

[ag]

Bedi is getting further behind.

[jaichind]

As of right now AAP has 53% of the vote. 

[ag]

The most incredible thing, AAP seems to be getting over 50% of the vote!

[ag]

As of right now AAP has 53% of the vote. 

We think alike

[jaichind]

Vote share so far with 25% of the vote counted seems to be

AAP                          53.4%
BJP+ (BJP+SAD)       33.9%
INC                            9.0%
BSP                            1.4%

BJP+ actually managed to keep their vote share from 2013 which was 34.2%.  But they did gain a bit from BSP so they did lose a bit to AAP.  The rest of it is about INC and Independent vote share going to AAP.  

[jaichind]

AAP   59   +31
BJP    10   -22
INC     0     -8
INLD   1    +1
BSP    0    
JD(U)  0     -1
Ind     0     -1

[jaichind]

AAP   57   +29
BJP    12   -20
INC     0     -8
INLD   1    +1
BSP    0     
JD(U)  0     -1
Ind     0     -1

BJP coming back a bit.