Feb 7th Delhi Assembly elections

[jaichind]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delhi_Legislative_Assembly_election,_2015

Dec 2013 assembly elections for Delhi resulted in a hung assembly followed by an AAP administration backed by INC from the outside.  That lasted one month and a year has been wasted for the AAP BJP and INC to come up with an government.   By Nov 2014 they pretty much have up and new elections are called.  It will be on Feb 7th and counting of votes Feb 10th.

AAP will still be led by Arvind Kejriwal while BJP recruiting Kiran Bedi, who is an old associate of Kejriwal in the Anna movement of 2011 to be its CM candidate.  The BJP calculation was that they do not want to elevate  Kejriwal  by making the election a  Kejriwal vs Modi battle so they must get face to represent the  faction ridden Delhi BJP.  So far it seems to not have worked as Bedi does not seem to be that effective as a campaigner.

Polls seem to show BJP and AAP neck-to-neck with a slight edge to AAP.  Before Bedi took over the polls seem to indicate a slight edge for BJP.   One way or another Kejriwal seems to be the preferred leader relative to Bedi. 

In 2013 it was
                              seats   vote share
NDA (BJD+SAD)      32       34.2%
AAP                         28       29.7%
INC                           8       24.7%
BSP                           0        5.4%
JD(U)                        1         0.9%

In 2014 LS elections it was
                             seats    vote share
BJP                          7         46.6%
AAP                         0         33.1%
INC                         0         15.2%
BSP                         0           1.2%

This time JD(U) seems to be backing AAP.  BJP and SAD will continue their alliance.   Muslim INC voters, seeing AAP as the main challenger of the BJP will gravitate toward AAP.  Anti-AAP INC voters will most likely migrate toe BJP.  I think INC will end up in the high single digits or low double digits in terms of vote share and win 2-5 seats.  NDA and AAP will each get around 40% of the vote and the side that has a slight advantage will come out the winner.   

ABP-Nielson survey poll has AAP 50% BJP 41% and INC 9%.  Hindustan Times-C  survey has AAP 39% BJP 38% INC 14%.  But India TV-CVoter survey has BJP 45% AAP 40% INC 10%.

[ag]

An AAP victory would be a huge setback for Modi. BJP seem to be pulling all stops - much of the cabinet is campaigning. One problem they have is, Bedi choice is quite some pandering. And, it left a lot of bad taste among the loyal BJP folk, who believe they have not been appreciated for that loyalty.

Will be fun to see.

[jaichind]

In fact, 120 BJP MPs and all BJP CMs will be campaigning in Delhi to ensure a victory for BJP.  By over-investing resources like this Modi will now almost have to win and by a significant margin.  If they do not then the Modi-Amit Shah aura of invincibility will be broken.  To some extent now by taking Kejriwal so seriously, the dynamics of the campaign has changed to Kejriwal's benefit where a low key campaign would have had the BJP base turnout should have given it a solid chance of winning.  BJP has to win now even as their changes of winning is going down.

[ag]

In fact, 120 BJP MPs and all BJP CMs will be campaigning in Delhi to ensure a victory for BJP.  By over-investing resources like this Modi will now almost have to win and by a significant margin.  If they do not then the Modi-Amit Shah aura of invincibility will be broken.  To some extent now by taking Kejriwal so seriously, the dynamics of the campaign has changed to Kejriwal's benefit where a low key campaign would have had the BJP base turnout should have given it a solid chance of winning.  BJP has to win now even as their changes of winning is going down.

Yeah, that seems to be panic mode for Modi. Turning this into a referendum on the BJP government so early in its term... Why?

[jaichind]

Yeah, that seems to be panic mode for Modi. Turning this into a referendum on the BJP government so early in its term... Why?

I think it is more about putting some distance between Modi and this election.  Now that the AAP seem to have some momentum, Amit Shah is coming in to take direct charge of the election and bringing in all these MPs and CMs to campaign.  So if anything what the BJP is trying to do is to make it NOT a referendum on the Modi regime now that victory is not assured.  If the BJP does not do well I am not sure this will work but we will see.

One of the reasons why this election took so long to even get started was the Delhi BJP reluctance to go for election versus some sort of behind-the-scene deal with AAP or INC to cobble a majority.  Modi pretty much made it clear after some haggling that doing that would damage the image of the BJP nationwide and that victory is assured given the BJP performance at the 2014 LS elections in Delhi.  Looking at the situation now it seems the Delhi BJP MLA were right in their reluctance to call elections.  Of course had they call elections back in the summer of 2014 I think nothing would have stopped the BJP from winning.  So the fear of the BJP MLA actually made what they were afraid of more likely with this delay.

[ag]

Yeah, that seems to be panic mode for Modi. Turning this into a referendum on the BJP government so early in its term... Why?

I think it is more about putting some distance between Modi and this election.  Now that the AAP seem to have some momentum, Amit Shah is coming in to take direct charge of the election and bringing in all these MPs and CMs to campaign.  So if anything what the BJP is trying to do is to make it NOT a referendum on the Modi regime now that victory is not assured.  If the BJP does not do well I am not sure this will work but we will see.

BJP is Modi today. All those MPs and CMs are clear surrogates. It would do damage to lose here, once all stops have been pulled. And all stops have been pulled. Of course, they might still win - but even then, if AAP comes close, it will have a huge platform. They could argue that they are the proper urban secular alternative to BJP, and, if they play it well, this would be a remarkable recovery after the Lok Sabha disaster.

[jaichind]

Latest polls for sure show the momentum is with AAP although between different polls they are all over the place, especially in terms of vote share.

ABP News-Nielsen poll has AAP 35 BJP 29 INC 6 in terms of seats and AAP 37 BJP 33 INC 18 in terms of vote share.

TNS poll has AAP 38 BJP 30 INC 3 in terms of seats and AAP 49 BJP 43.5 INC 5 in terms of vote share.

Hindustan Times poll has AAP 38 BJP 30 INC 5 in terms of seats and AAP 40 BJP 37 INC 15 in terms of vote share.

I can only say if the AAP does beat BJP in terms of vote share by 4%-5% then AAP will most likely get 50 seats.  Same the other way around, if the BJP wins the vote share by 4%-5% then BJP will get 50 seats.  In that sense these polls are not logical in my view.

Anyway the rule of thumb for Indian elections is that in a competitive election the winning party always gets underestimated in pre-poll surveys due to momentum effects which are not totally captured.  It looks like AAP is more likely to be that party.

[ag]

Modi seems to be desperate. He IS personally and publically involved in the campaign. If they loose, it will be at his feet, not at any aid´s.

[jaichind]

Union Minister M Venkaiah Naidu on Wednesday said the electoral mandate in the national capital cannot be seen as a referendum on the performance of Narendra Modi government at the Centre.  It seems that BJP is sensing defeat.  I have no idea why they deployed Modi when it became clear that even if BJP were to win it would be by a small margin so Modi could only look bad as a result.  Now, if they lose it would look doubly worse.

[jaichind]

Voting in progress.  Some polls has AAP ahead and some others have BJP ahead although the more established ones has AAP ahead.

What AAP needs is a breakdown of the INC vote which would benefit AAP much more than the BJP.  What the BJP needs is for the INC to hold together and take enough of the anti-BJP vote to win. 

INC seems to be focused on only a couple dozen of 70 seats that it could win and hope it can win high single digits seats to be relevant in government formation.  I think INC is wrong.  What INC needs to survive in Delhi politics is for its vote share to be as high as possible and ideally take down the AAP in as many districts as possible and help the BJP win a majority.  This way the AAP might fade as the main opposition to the BJP or AAP might have to join forces with INC next election.  For the INC to support tactical voting for AAP is a mistake and would relegate INC to a small player in Delhi much like it happen to INC in TN in the 1970s, UP and Bihar in the 1990s, and WB in the 2000s.  There is already risk of this taking place in Haryana and Maharashtra based on recent elections.

[ag]

Right now INC most needs BJP to get a bloody nose. AAP, for the moment, is only displacing them in in Delhi. In many more places their rival is BJP. They need to stop Modi roll. If it is done by AAP - so be  it.

Furthermore, if BJP wins because of vote-splitting, a good many people will be pissed with the INC - exactly the sort of people INC needs to win. I have said this last year, an I am saying this now: INC needs to smother AAP in love.

[ag]

Pity ECI does not count on the same day. But will there be exit polls?

[jaichind]

*TIMES NOW-C-VOTER EXIT POLLS SHOW AAP LEAD IN 31-39 DELHI SEATS

[jaichind]

BJP SEEN WINNING 23-29 SEATS IN DELHI POLLS: INDIA TODAY-CICERO
AAP SEEN WINNING 35-43 SEATS IN DELHI POLLS: INDIA TODAY-CICERO

If so this leaves around 3-5 seats for INC.

[jaichind]

ABP-NIELSEN EXIT POLLS SHOW AAP WINNING 39 SEATS IN DELHI
ABP-NIELSEN EXIT POLLS SHOW BJP WINNING 28 SEATS IN DELHI

[jaichind]

These exit polls seems to have AAP somewhat larger lead than pre-poll surveys.  If so the rule of thumb in Indian elections are that if a winning party does better in an exit poll than in pre-election surveys then the margin of victory will be bigger than exit polls UNLESS the winning party is the incumbent party then the winning party will mostly match exit polls.  Using this rule of thumb one should expect AAP to win around 40-45 seats.

[jaichind]

In terms of vote share Headlines Today - Cicero Exit poll as of 3pm has seen AAP with 41 percent of the voteshare, BJP witn 37 percent, and 15 percent for the Congress.   INC at 15% would imply that the AAP margin of victory would be somewhat smaller and it will be a close run for AAP to win a majority. 

[jaichind]

In terms of seats, ABP-Nielsen has predicted 39 seats for AAP, 28 seats for the BJP and 3 for Congress. Like I pointed out above.

The ABP poll has shown a much more comfortable victory for AAP. Its own numbers as of 3pm show that AAP has a voteshare percentage of 37 percent to the 32 percent of the BJP. The Congress is down to 19 percent.

[jaichind]

So these exit polls seems to be based on 3PM data.  In which case I suspect the scale of BJP's defeat might be even greater since the the lower income votes which are the base of AAP tends to vote later in the day.  It seems INC has projected vote share of 15 and 19 so far which is actually impressive given how this race turned into a AAP-BJP fight.  If the AAP managed to win with INC vote shares like these numbers than we can say the BJP most likely have lost support to AAP relative to 2013 even as it picked up support from BSP so its vote share overall mostly stayed flat.

[jaichind]

The C-voter exit poll as of 3pm shows that this election is literally getting too close to call. AAP is in the lead with an estimated 42 percent of the vote share, but the BJP is snapping at its heels with 40 percent of the voteshare.  The Congress is a distant third with a projected 11 percent of the voteshare.
C-Voter seems to have AAP slightly ahead 31-39 seats.

This is interesting, the exit poll with the smallest INC vote share has the AAP lead over BJP being the smallest when CW is that the lower the INC vote share the greater the scale of AAP victory.

[jaichind]

If you take the average of these 3 exit polls which is as of 3PM in terms of vote share it would come out to around AAP 40% BJP 36% INC 15%.  This would imply that BJP got a slight swing from BSP which I am sure will not win 5.4% like it did in 2013, while INC lost 1/3 of its 2013 vote to AAP.  If this were the vote share result then I think AAP is looking at around 40-45 seats as I think the exit polls underestimate AAP seat share translated from vote share as the most likely INC voters to swing to AAP are to defeat BJP where BJP has a chance of winning so the distribution of the swing would work to the advantage of AAP.

[jaichind]

News Nation exit poll should send AAP over the edge in delirious happiness. The exit polling as of 3pm has given AAP a massive 39-43 seats, to the BJP's 25 - 29 seats. The Congress, which really has become the 'also ran' of this election is predicted to win just 1 to 3 seats.

[jaichind]

The Axis exit poll seems to be a massive outlier here. it has predicted a massive 53 seats for AAP, to the 17 by the BJP. The Congress, will only manage 0-2 seats.

[jaichind]

The India TV's exit poll put AAP in the top with 31 to 39 seats. BJP 27 to 35 and Congress 2 to 4

[jaichind]

I tend not to believe these exit polls claims that INC will win 0-2 or even 2-4 seats.  I am pretty sure INC will win at least 4-5 seats.  I am certain it will still carry Seelampur, Okhla, Badli, and Gandhi Nagar while perhaps retain Chandni Chowk.  I can see INC winning Rajouri Garden (JD(U) winner of 2013 joined INC) and Mundka (Independent winner of 2013 joined INC) as well although that depends on the flow of votes.  I do agree that winning any other seats beyond these 4-5 is unlikely for INC.  I guess it is a mega wave where AAP sweeps all and wins 53 seats like Axis exit poll claims then perhaps some of that 4-5 seats could fall.  I am just thinking that this scenario is unlikely.