Feb 7th Delhi Assembly elections

[jaichind]

The NDTV exit poll said the AAP could win 38 seats and the BJP 29.

[jaichind]

Today's Chanakya exit poll did not give the party break up but said in terms of who would be the best chief minister, Kejriwal scored a high mark of 53 percent.  Today's Chanakya was the most accurate exit pollster in the 2014 LS elections.  Their exit poll results in 2014 which had a massive majority for NDA was roundly mocked when it came out, especially by myself, but ended being the most accurate of all projections in 2014.

[jaichind]

As I mentioned before these exit polls are based on data up to 3PM so these pollsters will updates their numbers later with data from 3PM-6PM.

[jaichind]

Today's Chanakya came out with AAP 48 BJP 22 INC 0

[jaichind]

Datamineria has predicted 35 seats for the BJP, 31 for AAP and 4 with Congress.  I never heard of this pollster and it is the first to give the edge to BJP.

[Insula Dei]

So, when do we get to see real results?

[jaichind]

Turnout is around 67%, a percentage or two higher than 2013.  Results will come out morning of 2/10, so it is around night of 2/9 9pm EST.

[jaichind]

Final exit poll numbers after adding in 3pm-6pm data.

India Today - Cicero - Vote share: 42 percent for AAP, 36 percent for BJP and a mere 15 percent for Congress.  In terms of seatshare, this is showing 38 - 46 seats for AAP,  19 - 27 for the BJP and 3 - 5 seats for the Congress.

C-Voter poll  - 35 - 43 for AAP, 25-33 for BJP and 0-2 for Congress.

ABP News-Nielsen - AAP 43 seats. The BJP is likely to get 26 seats and the Congress 1 seat.

Like I predicted, the 3pm-6pm data should add to the AAP winning margin which it seems to have.

This is looking pretty bad for BJP.

[ag]

If this holds, this is a pretty bloody nose for Modi. Good!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fingers firmly crossed...

[jaichind]

INC seems to be focused on only a couple dozen of 70 seats that it could win and hope it can win high single digits seats to be relevant in government formation.  I think INC is wrong.  What INC needs to survive in Delhi politics is for its vote share to be as high as possible and ideally take down the AAP in as many districts as possible and help the BJP win a majority.  This way the AAP might fade as the main opposition to the BJP or AAP might have to join forces with INC next election.  For the INC to support tactical voting for AAP is a mistake and would relegate INC to a small player in Delhi much like it happen to INC in TN in the 1970s, UP and Bihar in the 1990s, and WB in the 2000s.  There is already risk of this taking place in Haryana and Maharashtra based on recent elections.

Counting to start soon.  Article below pretty much sums my point of view above.  INC should be rooting for BJP to win, which is unlikely.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/delhi-elections-2015-why-congress-is-rooting-for-the-victory-of-arch-rival-bjp/articleshow/46181236.cms

[jaichind]

Just postal votes but so far it is

BJP  5   +1
AAP 4   -2
INC  2  +1

Which is a surprise.

[jaichind]

AAP    9   -2
BJP    6    
INC    2  +1
BSP    1  +1

The seat BSP is ahead in was won by the AAP by a large margin last time with BJP second while BSP got almost nothing in 2013.  So these results are still too early.

[jaichind]

AAP   10   -2
BJP     8   +1   
INC    2   
BSP    1  +1

[jaichind]

Enough votes has come in to indicate it is not an AAP landslide.  But based on exit polls I would still say that AAP still have the edge.

[jaichind]

I am still confused how BSP can be ahead in  Greater Kailash.  In 2013 it was AAP 45.6 BJP 31.7 INC 20.8 BSP 1. 

[jaichind]

AAP   12   -1
BJP     9   
INC    2   
BSP    1  +1

[jaichind]

AAP   16   +3
BJP     8    -4    
INC    3    +1
BSP    1   +1
JD(U) 0    -1

The JD(U) winner in 2013 switched to INC and is now ahead as INC candidate.

[jaichind]

AAP   17   +2
BJP     9    -4   
INC    4    +2
BSP    1   +1
JD(U) 0    -1

[jaichind]

AAP   21   +5
BJP    11    -5   
INC    5    +1
BSP    0     
JD(U) 0    -1

BSP is finally behind in Greater Kailash.

[jaichind]

AAP   23   +7
BJP    11    -7   
INC    5    +1
BSP    0     
JD(U) 0    -1

[jaichind]

Its pretty obvious we are looking at a significant but not massive AAP majority.

[jaichind]

AAP   29   +8
BJP    11    -8   
INC    5    +1
BSP    0     
JD(U) 0    -1

[jaichind]

AAP   29   +7
BJP    13    -7   
INC    5    +1
BSP    0     
JD(U) 0    -1

BJP closing the gap a bit.

[jaichind]

AAP   33   +11
BJP    12     -8   
INC     4     -1
BSP    0     
JD(U)  0     -1

INC lost some ground.