Feb 7th Delhi Assembly elections

[jaichind]

Kudos to AAP.  It seems the new Delhi Assembly will now have no members that have serious criminal cases like rape, kidnapping and murder pending against them.  This is a first for any significant legislative assembly in India in decades. 

[Sbane]

AAP is just fine as long as it doesn't stand in the way of economic reform. In fact, I hope they lead that movement. I am cautiously optimistic. At the very least they won't be corrupt.

[ag]

The main danger, of course, is that BJP reacts to this by provoking communal violence in order to cause Hindu consolidation against the minorities: it may well be their best (politically) bet at this point.

[Sbane]

The main danger, of course, is that BJP reacts to this by provoking communal violence in order to cause Hindu consolidation against the minorities: it may well be their best (politically) bet at this point.

Ag, you seem to understand Indian politics and yet you ignore your own wisdom when making posts about religious riots. It is just irrational behavior on your part. You made the correct point that when the election becomes about the BJP or secular forces vs non-secular forces, the secular side will win every single time. So what incentive does the BJP have to create that paradigm themselves?  The BJP has all the incentive in the world to keep their opposition divided among multiple parties. That will not happen if they start religious riots and try to divide India.

Also, the sort of consolidation of the non-BJP vote you saw in Delhi will likely not occur in rural India where caste politics is still king. So all the BJP has to do is make sure they keep their base (which they can do without riots) and get enough of the secular middle class vote in order to win. Remember, the lower class vote will likely swing against the incumbents.

Furthermore, AAP and Kejriwal are much greater threats to the BJP than Congress. As this election shows, people are still tired of Congress and Kejriwal represents one of the only viable choices to defeat Modi in 2019. The issue for AAP is gaining support in the rest of India, not just Delhi. Divisive riots would only be a catalyst for that.

[ag]

The main danger, of course, is that BJP reacts to this by provoking communal violence in order to cause Hindu consolidation against the minorities: it may well be their best (politically) bet at this point.

Ag, you seem to understand Indian politics and yet you ignore your own wisdom when making posts about religious riots. It is just irrational behavior on your part. You made the correct point that when the election becomes about the BJP or secular forces vs non-secular forces, the secular side will win every single time. So what incentive does the BJP have to create that paradigm themselves?  The BJP has all the incentive in the world to keep their opposition divided among multiple parties. That will not happen if they start religious riots and try to divide India.

Also, the sort of consolidation of the non-BJP vote you saw in Delhi will likely not occur in rural India where caste politics is still king. So all the BJP has to do is make sure they keep their base (which they can do without riots) and get enough of the secular middle class vote in order to win. Remember, the lower class vote will likely swing against the incumbents.

Furthermore, AAP and Kejriwal are much greater threats to the BJP than Congress. As this election shows, people are still tired of Congress and Kejriwal represents one of the only viable choices to defeat Modi in 2019. The issue for AAP is gaining support in the rest of India, not just Delhi. Divisive riots would only be a catalyst for that.

I do understand Indian politics. Lower castes distrust BJP: until, that is, it is Hindu vs. Muslim. There were no riots before this election: and the rural districts of Delhi fell to AAP. As far as good RSS men are concerned, this was preventable.

[Sbane]

The main danger, of course, is that BJP reacts to this by provoking communal violence in order to cause Hindu consolidation against the minorities: it may well be their best (politically) bet at this point.

Ag, you seem to understand Indian politics and yet you ignore your own wisdom when making posts about religious riots. It is just irrational behavior on your part. You made the correct point that when the election becomes about the BJP or secular forces vs non-secular forces, the secular side will win every single time. So what incentive does the BJP have to create that paradigm themselves?  The BJP has all the incentive in the world to keep their opposition divided among multiple parties. That will not happen if they start religious riots and try to divide India.

Also, the sort of consolidation of the non-BJP vote you saw in Delhi will likely not occur in rural India where caste politics is still king. So all the BJP has to do is make sure they keep their base (which they can do without riots) and get enough of the secular middle class vote in order to win. Remember, the lower class vote will likely swing against the incumbents.

Furthermore, AAP and Kejriwal are much greater threats to the BJP than Congress. As this election shows, people are still tired of Congress and Kejriwal represents one of the only viable choices to defeat Modi in 2019. The issue for AAP is gaining support in the rest of India, not just Delhi. Divisive riots would only be a catalyst for that.

I do understand Indian politics. Lower castes distrust BJP: until, that is, it is Hindu vs. Muslim. There were no riots before this election: and the rural districts of Delhi fell to AAP. As far as good RSS men are concerned, this was preventable.

And yet you yourself mentioned that when it is secular vs non-secular, the secular side always wins. Most people who would support a party instigating a religious riot against Muslims are already supporting the BJP. Sure, the BJP might be able to hold on to some lower caste votes they might have lost otherwise if it is Hindu vs Muslim at the polls. On the other hand, they will consolidate the rest of the electorate against them.

The BJP did about as well as it could in 2014 and the NDA coalition still only got 39% of the vote. If the 61% of Indians who didn't vote for the NDA consolidate, they will lose the next election. I can't speak for the RSS, who probably think under any circumstance killing muslims is fine, but looking at it from purely a political strategy standpoint, it would be incredibly stupid for the BJP to incite religious riots. And whether you like it or not, the last election proved how savvy the BJP campaign was. There weren't a bunch of hicks from the middle of nowhere running the BJP campaign, it was a modern campaign the likes of which India had never seen before. I doubt they would make such a grave miscalculation.

[Vosem]

Whoa! So all the polls were showing the AAP and the BJP in a close race, and even if at the end it maybe seemed AAP was pulling away, no one expected a 67-3 blowout. So what happened?

[Sbane]

Whoa! So all the polls were showing the AAP and the BJP in a close race, and even if at the end it maybe seemed AAP was pulling away, no one expected a 67-3 blowout. So what happened?

Non-BJP vote consolidated behind AAP. BJP vote share stayed about the same as last time.

[jaichind]

Whoa! So all the polls were showing the AAP and the BJP in a close race, and even if at the end it maybe seemed AAP was pulling away, no one expected a 67-3 blowout. So what happened?

Non-BJP vote consolidated behind AAP. BJP vote share stayed about the same as last time.

Pretty much as NDA went from 34.2% in 2013 to 32.8% in 2015 which is a slight drop.  Of course in 5-6 seats or so the BJP could have won if they held their vote share from 2013.  This has to counter by 2 seats the BJP won as a result of an expected strong INC showing relative to what the INC did in the rest of Delhi in one district while in another the BJP gained votes via AAP infighting.  So of the NDA just held their vote share in 2013 without making these 2 surprise gains it would most have been something like 63-7.  So given the surprising scale of the anti-NDA consolidation the BJP was doomed to a landslide loss no matter what.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

How doomed is the INC?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In Delhi or nationally? Nationally it isn't doomed at all.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In Delhi or nationally? Nationally it isn't doomed at all.

I mean more in an ultimate sense. How many states is it now where the INC was once in top and now play third banana? UP? Bihar? West Bengal? Telangana? The party seem to be playing a disappearing game, and it seems like its voters are nostalgic and greying.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ultimately we are all doomed.

[jaichind]

In terms of total span (I define span as number seats where a party was first or second place), the INC of 2014 still has a greater span than the BJP of 2009.  In fact the span of the INC and BJP were similar in 2014.  If the NDA government were to stumble, the INC still would be the main party to benefit. 

Although I agree that the trend where the number of states where the INC vote base is below 10% has been rising over time.  It was TN in the 1980s, UP and Bihar in the 1990s, WB in the 2000s, and now Delhi.  In places like TN, UP, Bihar and WB it became more about INC being a junior partner of a larger regional party to being able to swing the election toward this larger regional party.  In Delhi I can foresee a BJP revival in the future forcing AAP and INC to form an alliance.  In TN it seems that INC cannot even play the role of a kingmaker.  It is dangerously close to being such a state in Bihar and UP. 

Overall, even if there will be an expected revival of INC over the next couple election cycles, it will not be able to replicate the INC of 2004 and 2009.  Just like the INC of the 1990s and 2000s could not replicate the INC of the 1950s-1980s.  INC will be a shadow of itself and become just another medium-large national party with pockets of strengths and pockets of irrelevance in others.

[jaichind]

Just to show the extent of the how anti-BJP tactical voting with higher turnout.  One of the main Indian media narratives is how the BJP totally botched this election after their crushing victory in the Delhi LS in 2014 where they will on 7 seats and won 60 out of 70 assembly segments.  But lets just assume that the BJP-SAD total vote in the 2015 assembly equaled that of 2014 LS BJP votes.  For that to take place it will mean that 10.1% of the vote in the 2015 assembly election would have to move from AAP to BJP-SAD which would put the BJP-SAD vote share to be 42.9% and the AAP vote share to be 44.4%.  In such a situation the BJP-SAD would still lose toe AAP 37 to 33 in terms of seats.  So the BJP-SAD defeat is more of a function of anti-BJP consolidation the the scale of defeat a function of 2014 LS BJP votes going over to AAP.