AZ-Sen: Salmon, Schweikert considering

[windjammer]

Sabato moves it to Lean R.

Really dumb. McCain hasnt any great primary challenger yet and he has really great political skills.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Sabato moves it to Lean R.

Really dumb. McCain hasnt any great primary challenger yet and he has really great political skills.

Kirkpatrick is by far the strongest GE opponent he has ever received. And while Ward can't win, she can still give McCain an embarrassing margin of victory in the primary (say, less than 15 points) and send him into the general significantly damaged. And Schweikert outright saying McCain can't win the general (whether he actually believes it or is just saying it to swing donors) is definitely a good sign for those who want him (Schweikert) to run.

[windjammer]

Sabato moves it to Lean R.

Really dumb. McCain hasnt any great primary challenger yet and he has really great political skills.

Kirkpatrick is by far the strongest GE opponent he has ever received. And while Ward can't win, she can still give McCain an embarrassing margin of victory in the primary (say, less than 15 points) and send him into the general significantly damaged. And Schweikert outright saying McCain can't win the general (whether he actually believes it or is just saying it to swing donors) is definitely a good sign for those who want him (Schweikert) to run.

Oh just to be clear,
I really would love to see him go down. But he has politically skills. And I do believe he will survive.  I don't see a primary challenge beating him. I mean, we're not even sure Schweikert is running.

And even if Kirkpatrick is indeed a very good candidate, Mccain will quite overperform among the latino voters allowing him to be reelected easily.

[MT Treasurer]

Sabato moves it to Lean R.

Really dumb. McCain hasnt any great primary challenger yet and he has really great political skills.

Kirkpatrick is by far the strongest GE opponent he has ever received. And while Ward can't win, she can still give McCain an embarrassing margin of victory in the primary (say, less than 15 points) and send him into the general significantly damaged. And Schweikert outright saying McCain can't win the general (whether he actually believes it or is just saying it to swing donors) is definitely a good sign for those who want him (Schweikert) to run.

Oh just to be clear,
I really would love to see him go down. But he has politically skills. And I do believe he will survive.  I don't see a primary challenge beating him. I mean, we're not even sure Schweikert is running.

And even if Kirkpatrick is indeed a very good candidate, Mccain will quite overperform among the latino voters allowing him to be reelected easily.

Basically this. Just because an incumbent Republican Senator has low approval ratings, that doesn't mean that a primary challenger would be a better candidate for the GE (cough *Indiana 2012* cough). A lot of Republicans are dissatisfied with McCain, but they will probably hold their nose and vote for him over a liberal Democrat. And even if many Republicans vote Libertarian or skip the race (I can assure that they won't vote for Kirkpatrick), McCain still has the advantage due to his crossover appeal among Hispanics and some Democrats. I'm sorry Atlas, but a McCain-Kirkpatrick race would be extremely predictable. Likely R with McCain, Toss-up with Schweikert and Leans D with Ward.

[windjammer]

Sabato moves it to Lean R.

Really dumb. McCain hasnt any great primary challenger yet and he has really great political skills.

Kirkpatrick is by far the strongest GE opponent he has ever received. And while Ward can't win, she can still give McCain an embarrassing margin of victory in the primary (say, less than 15 points) and send him into the general significantly damaged. And Schweikert outright saying McCain can't win the general (whether he actually believes it or is just saying it to swing donors) is definitely a good sign for those who want him (Schweikert) to run.

Oh just to be clear,
I really would love to see him go down. But he has politically skills. And I do believe he will survive.  I don't see a primary challenge beating him. I mean, we're not even sure Schweikert is running.

And even if Kirkpatrick is indeed a very good candidate, Mccain will quite overperform among the latino voters allowing him to be reelected easily.

Basically this. Just because an incumbent Republican Senator has low approval ratings, that doesn't mean that a primary challenger would be a better candidate for the GE (cough *Indiana 2012* cough). A lot of Republicans are dissatisfied with McCain, but they will probably hold their nose and vote for him over a liberal Democrat. And even if many Republicans vote Libertarian or skip the race (I can assure that they won't vote for Kirkpatrick), McCain still has the advantage due to his crossover appeal among Hispanics and some Democrats. I'm sorry Atlas, but a McCain-Kirkpatrick race would be extremely predictable. Likely R with McCain, Toss-up with Schweikert and Leans D with Ward.

Just curious,
How awful would Schweikert be as a candidate???

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Sabato moves it to Lean R.

Really dumb. McCain hasnt any great primary challenger yet and he has really great political skills.

Kirkpatrick is by far the strongest GE opponent he has ever received. And while Ward can't win, she can still give McCain an embarrassing margin of victory in the primary (say, less than 15 points) and send him into the general significantly damaged. And Schweikert outright saying McCain can't win the general (whether he actually believes it or is just saying it to swing donors) is definitely a good sign for those who want him (Schweikert) to run.

Oh just to be clear,
I really would love to see him go down. But he has politically skills. And I do believe he will survive.  I don't see a primary challenge beating him. I mean, we're not even sure Schweikert is running.

And even if Kirkpatrick is indeed a very good candidate, Mccain will quite overperform among the latino voters allowing him to be reelected easily.

Actually McCain is extremely unpopular in Arizona, including among Latinos (IIRC).  Not Jeff Flake-level unpopularity, but in that ballpark.  Kirkpatrick could definitely win this race.

[sg0508]

You all don't think that similar to Uncle Barry in 1980 (a very strong GOP tidal wave year), that Mac wouldn't win again out of principle?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

You all don't think that similar to Uncle Barry in 1980 (a very strong GOP tidal wave year), that Mac wouldn't win again out of principle?

No, not really  I don't expect 2016 to be a Republican tidal wave, even if they win the Presidency.  At this point a Democratic tidal wave is far more likely (although I'm not expecting that either).  I'd also Goldwater was a much stronger incumbent in 1980 than McCain is today.

[ElectionsGuy]

Sabato moves it to Lean R.

Really dumb. McCain hasnt any great primary challenger yet and he has really great political skills.

Kirkpatrick is by far the strongest GE opponent he has ever received. And while Ward can't win, she can still give McCain an embarrassing margin of victory in the primary (say, less than 15 points) and send him into the general significantly damaged. And Schweikert outright saying McCain can't win the general (whether he actually believes it or is just saying it to swing donors) is definitely a good sign for those who want him (Schweikert) to run.

Oh just to be clear,
I really would love to see him go down. But he has politically skills. And I do believe he will survive.  I don't see a primary challenge beating him. I mean, we're not even sure Schweikert is running.

And even if Kirkpatrick is indeed a very good candidate, Mccain will quite overperform among the latino voters allowing him to be reelected easily.

Actually McCain is extremely unpopular in Arizona, including among Latinos (IIRC).  Not Jeff Flake-level unpopularity, but in that ballpark.  Kirkpatrick could definitely win this race.

Any candidate COULD win any race in any state at any time. I just fail to realize how she WILL win. AZ is always supposed to flip to the Democrats until it doesn't. I will say this, though: Kirkpatrick is a fool for giving up her safe House seat. Not to mention that she's no Joe Manchin or Joe Donnelly either.

Her house seat was won by Mitt Romney.

[windjammer]

Sabato moves it to Lean R.

Really dumb. McCain hasnt any great primary challenger yet and he has really great political skills.

Kirkpatrick is by far the strongest GE opponent he has ever received. And while Ward can't win, she can still give McCain an embarrassing margin of victory in the primary (say, less than 15 points) and send him into the general significantly damaged. And Schweikert outright saying McCain can't win the general (whether he actually believes it or is just saying it to swing donors) is definitely a good sign for those who want him (Schweikert) to run.

Oh just to be clear,
I really would love to see him go down. But he has politically skills. And I do believe he will survive.  I don't see a primary challenge beating him. I mean, we're not even sure Schweikert is running.

And even if Kirkpatrick is indeed a very good candidate, Mccain will quite overperform among the latino voters allowing him to be reelected easily.

Actually McCain is extremely unpopular in Arizona, including among Latinos (IIRC).  Not Jeff Flake-level unpopularity, but in that ballpark.  Kirkpatrick could definitely win this race.

Trust me, I would love you to be right, but I really don't see Mccain losing.

^Yeah, but I think she would have been reelected pretty easily in 2016.

Of course, she's a strong candidate. But not enough for winning Arizona statewide (according to me).

[Miles]

McCain gets another primary challenge in 74 year-old businessman Dave Pizer.

[/]

McCain gets another primary challenge in 74 year-old businessman future United States Senator Dave Pizer.

[Miles]

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[Brewer]

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I cracked up at this for a good five minutes.

[Ebsy]

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Haters gonna hate.

Shills gonna shill.

Junk candidates gonna lose.