Sabato moves it to Lean R.
Kirkpatrick is by far the strongest GE opponent he has ever received. And while Ward can't win, she can still give McCain an embarrassing margin of victory in the primary (say, less than 15 points) and send him into the general significantly damaged. And Schweikert outright saying McCain can't win the general (whether he actually believes it or is just saying it to swing donors) is definitely a good sign for those who want him (Schweikert) to run.
I really would love to see him go down. But he has politically skills. And I do believe he will survive. I don't see a primary challenge beating him. I mean, we're not even sure Schweikert is running.
And even if Kirkpatrick is indeed a very good candidate, Mccain will quite overperform among the latino voters allowing him to be reelected easily.
Basically this. Just because an incumbent Republican Senator has low approval ratings, that doesn't mean that a primary challenger would be a better candidate for the GE (cough *Indiana 2012* cough). A lot of Republicans are dissatisfied with McCain, but they will probably hold their nose and vote for him over a liberal Democrat. And even if many Republicans vote Libertarian or skip the race (I can assure that they won't vote for Kirkpatrick), McCain still has the advantage due to his crossover appeal among Hispanics and some Democrats. I'm sorry Atlas, but a McCain-Kirkpatrick race would be extremely predictable. Likely R with McCain, Toss-up with Schweikert and Leans D with Ward.
