AZ-Sen: Salmon, Schweikert considering

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John McCain = Thad Cochran

Hmmmm, Mccain is in a much more unfavorable than Cochran was. However, he's a savier politician so he can survive in the end.

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Mccain will be reelected. Synema should run against Flake if republicans win the white house.

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Kirkpatrick is running.

RIP FF.

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The problem with congressmen is that they never have the balls to challenge an incumbent.
For example, Lamar Alexander would have likely lost if a representative had tried to challenge him.

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_AZ_50515.pdf
Mccain would lead her 45-33.

Not particularly great considering 75% of Arizona republicans don't know her.

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Sabato moves it to Lean R.

Really dumb. McCain hasnt any great primary challenger yet and he has really great political skills.

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Sabato moves it to Lean R.

Really dumb. McCain hasnt any great primary challenger yet and he has really great political skills.

Kirkpatrick is by far the strongest GE opponent he has ever received. And while Ward can't win, she can still give McCain an embarrassing margin of victory in the primary (say, less than 15 points) and send him into the general significantly damaged. And Schweikert outright saying McCain can't win the general (whether he actually believes it or is just saying it to swing donors) is definitely a good sign for those who want him (Schweikert) to run.

Oh just to be clear,
I really would love to see him go down. But he has politically skills. And I do believe he will survive.  I don't see a primary challenge beating him. I mean, we're not even sure Schweikert is running.

And even if Kirkpatrick is indeed a very good candidate, Mccain will quite overperform among the latino voters allowing him to be reelected easily.

[windjammer]

Sabato moves it to Lean R.

Really dumb. McCain hasnt any great primary challenger yet and he has really great political skills.

Kirkpatrick is by far the strongest GE opponent he has ever received. And while Ward can't win, she can still give McCain an embarrassing margin of victory in the primary (say, less than 15 points) and send him into the general significantly damaged. And Schweikert outright saying McCain can't win the general (whether he actually believes it or is just saying it to swing donors) is definitely a good sign for those who want him (Schweikert) to run.

Oh just to be clear,
I really would love to see him go down. But he has politically skills. And I do believe he will survive.  I don't see a primary challenge beating him. I mean, we're not even sure Schweikert is running.

And even if Kirkpatrick is indeed a very good candidate, Mccain will quite overperform among the latino voters allowing him to be reelected easily.

Basically this. Just because an incumbent Republican Senator has low approval ratings, that doesn't mean that a primary challenger would be a better candidate for the GE (cough *Indiana 2012* cough). A lot of Republicans are dissatisfied with McCain, but they will probably hold their nose and vote for him over a liberal Democrat. And even if many Republicans vote Libertarian or skip the race (I can assure that they won't vote for Kirkpatrick), McCain still has the advantage due to his crossover appeal among Hispanics and some Democrats. I'm sorry Atlas, but a McCain-Kirkpatrick race would be extremely predictable. Likely R with McCain, Toss-up with Schweikert and Leans D with Ward.

Just curious,
How awful would Schweikert be as a candidate???

[windjammer]

Sabato moves it to Lean R.

Really dumb. McCain hasnt any great primary challenger yet and he has really great political skills.

Kirkpatrick is by far the strongest GE opponent he has ever received. And while Ward can't win, she can still give McCain an embarrassing margin of victory in the primary (say, less than 15 points) and send him into the general significantly damaged. And Schweikert outright saying McCain can't win the general (whether he actually believes it or is just saying it to swing donors) is definitely a good sign for those who want him (Schweikert) to run.

Oh just to be clear,
I really would love to see him go down. But he has politically skills. And I do believe he will survive.  I don't see a primary challenge beating him. I mean, we're not even sure Schweikert is running.

And even if Kirkpatrick is indeed a very good candidate, Mccain will quite overperform among the latino voters allowing him to be reelected easily.

Actually McCain is extremely unpopular in Arizona, including among Latinos (IIRC).  Not Jeff Flake-level unpopularity, but in that ballpark.  Kirkpatrick could definitely win this race.

Trust me, I would love you to be right, but I really don't see Mccain losing.

^Yeah, but I think she would have been reelected pretty easily in 2016.

Of course, she's a strong candidate. But not enough for winning Arizona statewide (according to me).