Clinton vs Walker

[Devils30]

Discuss with maps. I think Clinton would win even in Wisconsin and Iowa but a close election could look like this. Florida would be a tough one for Walker since he'd do poorly with minorities and there aren't many more whites for the GOP to flip.

[Xing]

I actually don't think Walker would win Wisconsin in a close race. In a close race, Walker might do well enough among seniors to carry Florida, but I don't think his anti-union crusade would help him in Ohio.

That's assuming a somewhat close race.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Obama approval stay in the 40s

Clinton 275
Walker 263

Obama approval less then 40%

Clinton loses  Iowa from that map and loses election in house

Less then 33 % the map will be a lot worse

Walker 311
Clinton 227


Obama has strong approval

Clinton 343
Walker 195


Comes down to Obama's approval

[BlueSwan]

^^ You see Missouri and Arizona going to Clinton before Wisconsin?? No way. The home state effect is not gonna be *that* large.

[pbrower2a]

^^ You see Missouri and Arizona going to Clinton before Wisconsin?? No way. The home state effect is not gonna be *that* large.

The home-state appeal would have to be well earned with highly-successful and incontrovertibly-desirable reforms. Governor Walker's 'reforms' have better served out-of-state interests than those of Wisconsin.

I am going to wait to see polls of Arizona and Missouri to draw any conclusions about how those states are going in 2016 on Presidential or Senatorial races. OK, John McCain will be re-elected if he runs, but Arizona gets interesting if he should retire.

[IceSpear]

Clinton/Kaine - 307, 50.8%
Walker/Martinez - 231, 47.0%

Close states (within 5%):

Wisconsin - 0.2%
Iowa - 0.8%
New Mexico - 1.2%
Colorado - 1.5%
Ohio - 1.7%
North Carolina - 1.8%
Florida - 3.2%
Virginia - 4.9%

[Mr. Illini]

I tend to think that Walker being from Wisconsin would not put him over the top in that state because of increased minority turnout in Milwaukee and Racine and increase young turnout in Madison (he's thusfar been elected three times in all non-presidential elections). I think that it would instead put him over the edge in Iowa and Ohio for branding reasons as a good Midwesterner.

323 / 215

[henster]

Wisconsin will look like 2004 if Walker is the nom. either side eckes out a narrow victory.

[OSR stands with Israel]

^^ You see Missouri and Arizona going to Clinton before Wisconsin?? No way. The home state effect is not gonna be *that* large.

Walker won Wisconsin in 2012 despite it being a presidential election so I see it going that way. My belief is the magic number for both candidates is 43% which is Obama approval and if it is below that Walker beats Clinton and if it above that Clinton wins

[Xing]

^^ You see Missouri and Arizona going to Clinton before Wisconsin?? No way. The home state effect is not gonna be *that* large.

Walker won Wisconsin in 2012 despite it being a presidential election so I see it going that way. My belief is the magic number for both candidates is 43% which is Obama approval and if it is below that Walker beats Clinton and if it above that Clinton wins

Except that his recall was not at the same time as the presidential election.

[Suburbia]

I could see this map being realistic on November 8, 2016. It could change.

[daveosupremo]

Clinton/Kaine 269
Walker/Rubio 269

House decides the election for Walker

[WVdemocrat]

358 to 180, Clinton crushes that clown.

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

I could see this map being realistic on November 8, 2016. It could change.

Any Republican capable of winning New Hampshire would also win Ohio.

[Ebsy]

358 to 180, Clinton crushes that clown.

Would be worse than that for Walker.

[Nyvin]

^^ You see Missouri and Arizona going to Clinton before Wisconsin?? No way. The home state effect is not gonna be *that* large.

Walker won Wisconsin in 2012 despite it being a presidential election so I see it going that way. My belief is the magic number for both candidates is 43% which is Obama approval and if it is below that Walker beats Clinton and if it above that Clinton wins

The recall election happened in early June, not in the November election.

[Cryptic]

Clinton: 317
Walker: 221

Current guess. Subject to changes.

Wisconsin close, but Clinton wins due to increased minority and youth turnout. Walker narrowly flips Iowa and Colorado.

[Spark]

Should be close. My assumption is that Walker will presumably perform well in Midwestern states such as his home state, WI, IA, and OH. I just don't think he can win VA because of the plentiful voters from the DC suburbs. Since Obama's disapproval rate is up (52%) I think that the people will elect a GOP president.

Walker: 278
Clinton: 260

Popular vote:

Walker - 49.7%
Clinton - 48.3%

Closest races in order: WI (0.7%), OH (1.2%), VA (1.7%), FL (1.9%), CO (2.3%)

Walker ceiling, Clinton floor

343 / 195

Walker - 52.8%
Clinton - 47.2%

Clinton ceiling, Walker floor

347 / 191

Clinton - 53.3%
Walker - 46.7%

Clinton average

286 / 252

Clinton - 50.6%
Walker - 48.4%

Walker above average

273 / 265

Walker - 49.2%
Clinton - 48.8%

[dudeabides]

2012 except Iowa & Ohio go for Walker. Walker is pandering to the base on immigration and same-sex marriage. He's flip-flopping. He's basically Romney 2.0

Hillary Clinton (D) 50% 308 EV
Scott Walker (R) 49% 230 EV

[Fuzzy Says: "Abolish NPR!"]

Clinton would win all of the Obama 2012 states against Walker.

I am not sure that Walker would lose any Romney states.  I could see Walker losing NE-2 (1 EV) and having to fight to win in Indiana and Missouri, which still have large numbers of union members.  I could see Walker POSSIBLY narrow the gap in CO and make it competitive. 

Walker's "fresh face" qualities will fade when he comes to be seen as a stooge for the Koch Brothers.  He's not that bright, and the fact that he's not a college graduate will be used against him.  He's a guy who's a hero to the Club For Growth anti-public employee types, but I don't see him as having any grass roots support.  He's an establishment alternative to Jeb, and not the strongest one.  I predict that, over time, Kasich will become what Walker was supposed to be in this race.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Walker is actually a pretty weak candidate in reality. He looks good on paper because he won in a state that hasn't voted Republican more than 25 years. But....

In 2010, He won with 52% in a GOP wave year.
In 2012, He won with 53% with an electorate that supported Obama overall but thought the recall was overreach.
In 2014, He won with 52% in the GOP wave year.

So, what I'm saying is that these assumptions that Walker would win against Hillary in Wisconsin is probably missing that fact that a) his approvals aren't that strong b) WI's economic performance is sub-par c) has only won because of either GOP wave years or because a Democratic leaning electorate disapproved of the recall. I also think home state advantage only works when you're popular in the state.

Just a run down of how WI voted v the nation.

1996
Nation: D+8.5 WI: D+10.4 (D+1.9)

2000
Nation: D+0.5 WI: D+0.2 (R+0.3)

2004
Nation: R+2.5 WI: D+0.4 (D+2.9)

2008
Nation: D+7.3 WI: D+13.9 (D+6.6)

2012
Nation: D+3.9 WI: D+6.9 (D+3)

So for nearly 20 years and five presidential elections, only once has WI been more Republican than the country, with the average being roughly D+3. So, while it could be close, I would only consider WI for the GOP  if they're going to win the election cleanly because they've probably already won IA, OH, NH, CO, FL and VA well before that happens with PA and MI looking shaky.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia is very close to the national average. If I am predicting any state to be the tipping-point state in any election even nearly close, it is Virginia -- following Florida in 2000, Ohio in 2004, Iowa in 2008, and Colorado in 2012.

If the Democrat gets over 350 electoral votes, then Pennsylvania might be. 

[Kingpoleon]

263 - 222 - 53

Scott Walker(R-WI)/Tim Scott(R-SC) - 45.0%

Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Martin Heinrich(D-NM) - 48.0%

Posted absolute floors.

90%=SAFE
40%=Likely
30%=Tilt

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Walker is actually a pretty weak candidate in reality. He looks good on paper because he won in a state that hasn't voted Republican more than 25 years. But....

In 2010, He won with 52% in a GOP wave year.
In 2012, He won with 53% with an electorate that supported Obama overall but thought the recall was overreach.
In 2014, He won with 52% in the GOP wave year.

So, what I'm saying is that these assumptions that Walker would win against Hillary in Wisconsin is probably missing that fact that a) his approvals aren't that strong b) WI's economic performance is sub-par c) has only won because of either GOP wave years or because a Democratic leaning electorate disapproved of the recall. I also think home state advantage only works when you're popular in the state.

Just a run down of how WI voted v the nation.

1996
Nation: D+8.5 WI: D+10.4 (D+1.9)

2000
Nation: D+0.5 WI: D+0.2 (R+0.3)

2004
Nation: R+2.5 WI: D+0.4 (D+2.9)

2008
Nation: D+7.3 WI: D+13.9 (D+6.6)

2012
Nation: D+3.9 WI: D+6.9 (D+3)

So for nearly 20 years and five presidential elections, only once has WI been more Republican than the country, with the average being roughly D+3. So, while it could be close, I would only consider WI for the GOP  if they're going to win the election cleanly because they've probably already won IA, OH, NH, CO, FL and VA well before that happens with PA and MI looking shaky.

Permit me to expand that data-set

1980
Nation: R+9.8 WI: R+6.7 (D+3.2)

1984
Nation: R+18.2 WI: R+9.2 (D+9)

1988
Nation: R+7.7 WI: D+3.6 (D+11.3)

1992
Nation: D+5.6 WI: D+4.4 (R+1.2) - note Perot received nearly 22% here.

So that means in 9 presidential elections, only two times has the state been more GOP than the nation. So, if you're expecting a big win in the PV for ANY GOPer, sure... but even in a tied race, history supports the Democrats outpacing their national performance here.

[President Johnson]

I tend to think that Walker being from Wisconsin would not put him over the top in that state because of increased minority turnout in Milwaukee and Racine and increase young turnout in Madison (he's thusfar been elected three times in all non-presidential elections). I think that it would instead put him over the edge in Iowa and Ohio for branding reasons as a good Midwesterner.

323 / 215

This would be likely.