Walker is actually a pretty weak candidate in reality. He looks good on paper because he won in a state that hasn't voted Republican more than 25 years. But....
In 2010, He won with 52% in a GOP wave year.
In 2012, He won with 53% with an electorate that supported Obama overall but thought the recall was overreach.
In 2014, He won with 52% in the GOP wave year.
So, what I'm saying is that these assumptions that Walker would win against Hillary in Wisconsin is probably missing that fact that a) his approvals aren't that strong b) WI's economic performance is sub-par c) has only won because of either GOP wave years or because a Democratic leaning electorate disapproved of the recall. I also think home state advantage only works when you're popular in the state.
Just a run down of how WI voted v the nation.
1996
Nation: D+8.5 WI: D+10.4 (D+1.9)
2000
Nation: D+0.5 WI: D+0.2 (R+0.3)
2004
Nation: R+2.5 WI: D+0.4 (D+2.9)
2008
Nation: D+7.3 WI: D+13.9 (D+6.6)
2012
Nation: D+3.9 WI: D+6.9 (D+3)
So for nearly 20 years and five presidential elections, only once has WI been more Republican than the country, with the average being roughly D+3. So, while it could be close, I would only consider WI for the GOP if they're going to win the election cleanly because they've probably already won IA, OH, NH, CO, FL and VA well before that happens with PA and MI looking shaky.
Permit me to expand that data-set
1980
Nation: R+9.8 WI: R+6.7 (D+3.2)
1984
Nation: R+18.2 WI: R+9.2 (D+9)
1988
Nation: R+7.7 WI: D+3.6 (D+11.3)
1992
Nation: D+5.6 WI: D+4.4 (R+1.2) - note Perot received nearly 22% here.
So that means in 9 presidential elections, only two times has the state been more GOP than the nation. So, if you're expecting a big win in the PV for ANY GOPer, sure... but even in a tied race, history supports the Democrats outpacing their national performance here.
