^^ You see Missouri and Arizona going to Clinton before Wisconsin?? No way. The home state effect is not gonna be *that* large.
The home-state appeal would have to be well earned with highly-successful and incontrovertibly-desirable reforms. Governor Walker's 'reforms' have better served out-of-state interests than those of Wisconsin.
I am going to wait to see polls of Arizona and Missouri to draw any conclusions about how those states are going in 2016 on Presidential or Senatorial races. OK, John McCain will be re-elected if he runs, but Arizona gets interesting if he should retire.
