CPAC straw poll: Paul 26% Walker 21% Cruz 12% Carson 11% Bush 8% Santorum 4%

[Mr. Morden]

EDIT: Might as well make this the official CPAC thread, and sticky it.  Updates will follow, as they come out.

Second EDIT: Here are the straw poll results:




Original post:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/cpac-changes-2016-audience-114650.html

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Sounds like, with the RNC reducing the number of debates, other organizations are trying to step in and create more unscripted debate-like encounters with candidates that don't actually qualify as "debates".

[Mr. Morden]

The CPAC promotional materials include an "Avengers"-like poster:

[Mr. Morden]

List of CPAC speakers this year will include:

http://cpac.conservative.org/speakers/

Bolton
Bush
Carson
Cruz
Fiorina
Jindal
Palin
Paul
Perry
Rubio
Santorum
Trump
Walker

[Mr. Morden]

The new format might in fact look fairly debate-like:

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/02/08/politics/ip-cpac-walker-cruz--jeb/

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[Mr. Morden]

The straw poll results from last year:

Paul 31%
Cruz 11%
Carson 9%
Christie 8%
Walker 7%
Santorum 7%
Rubio 6%
Ryan 3%
Perry 3%
Jindal 2%
Rice 2%
Huckabee 2%
Palin 2%

We don't yet know who will be on the ballot this year.  Bush asked that his name not be included on the ballot the last two years, but now that he's quasi-running a quasi-presidential campaign, he presumably won't make that request again.

[Mr. Morden]

The straw poll results from last year:

Paul 31%
Cruz 11%
Carson 9%
Christie 8%
Walker 7%
Santorum 7%
Rubio 6%
Ryan 3%
Perry 3%
Jindal 2%
Rice 2%
Huckabee 2%
Palin 2%

We don't yet know who will be on the ballot this year.  Bush asked that his name not be included on the ballot the last two years, but now that he's quasi-running a quasi-presidential campaign, he presumably won't make that request again.

Flip Cruz with Paul and Walker with Christie and i dont think much else changes.

Why would Cruz do that much better than last time?  If anything, he's faded since last year.

[Mr. Morden]

The Log Cabin Republicans will once again be barred from sponsoring any panels at CPAC:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/log-cabin-republicans-cpac-115336.html

[Mr. Morden]

Christie will in fact be attending CPAC again this year:

http://www.northjersey.com/news/chris-christie-invited-to-cpac-1.1275368

Huckabee has declined to attend CPAC this year, as he's busy on his book tour.

More details about the new format:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-02-20/jeb-bush-chooses-to-be-cross-examined-at-cpac

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The full schedule is still being worked on, but it sounds like we tentatively have…

Thursday: Walker, Jindal, Christie, Cruz, Carson, Fiorina
Friday: Bush, Paul, Perry, (maybe) Rubio
Friday night keynote dinner address: Pence

Don't know yet when Bolton, Palin, Santorum, Trump, and others will be speaking.

[Mr. Morden]

Here is the schedule:

http://cpac.conservative.org/agenda/

Some 2016ers on the schedule:

Thursday:
8:40am: Carson
1:00pm: Christie
1:20pm: Fiorina
1:40pm: Cruz
5:00pm: Walker
5:20pm: Jindal
5:40pm: Palin

Friday:
8:40am: Rubio
9:00am: Perry
10:20am: Paul
12:00pm: Trump
12:20pm: Santorum
1:40pm: Bush
4:20pm: Bolton
7:15pm: conference dinner w/ keynote address by Mike Pence

Saturday:
5:10pm: straw poll results announced

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/414324/sean-hannity-interview-jeb-bush-cpac-eliana-johnson

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[Mr. Morden]

Any guesses as to who will be included on the straw poll ballot?  I guess last year, they had over 20 names.

[Mr. Morden]

The straw poll will include these 17 names:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/feb/25/cpacwashington-times-straw-poll-tests-17-gop-presi/

Bolton
Bush
Carson
Christie
Cruz
Fiorina
Graham
Huckabee
Jindal
Palin
Pataki
Paul
Perry
Rubio
Santorum
Trump
Walker

No Kasich, Pence, Ehrlich, or Gilmore.

[Mr. Morden]

Why would they include Bolton or Palin and not include Pence or Kasich?

This article suggests that Pence was excluded because he isn't making any "meaningful moves" towards a run:

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/233746-pence-out-of-running

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Of course, what has Palin done in terms of "meaningful moves"?  One trip to Iowa?  Kasich made one trip to South Carolina, so I don't see the difference.

[Mr. Morden]

According to this page, there will be a live stream of CPAC here.

[Mr. Morden]

This news is a couple of days old, but the head of the Log Cabin Republicans is being invited to CPAC after all:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/02/cpac-log-cabin-republicans-115422.html

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[Mr. Morden]

It's now streaming on C-SPAN:

http://www.c-span.org/video/?324557-1/2015-conservative-political-action-conference&live

Carson's speaking now.

[Mr. Morden]

Can't wait for Palin's speech!

Does anyone know the specific time she's on?

Read the schedule I gave on the last page.  She's on at 5:40pm today….although Carson actually started a bit early, so those times are approximate.

[Mr. Morden]

New stream is here:

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2015/02/26/watch-live-stream-of-cpac-2015/

[Mr. Morden]

Pics from CPAC:

[Mr. Morden]

Of anyone speaking on either day, I'm most curious to see how Bush performs in his Hannity Q&A.  I feel like Bush has a real shot at the nomination *if* he panders to the GOP primary electorate a la Romney 2012.  If not…it's hard to see how he makes it.  So is he desperate enough for the job to start pandering?  Because he hasn't done as much of it so far as one might expect from someone who really wants the job.  And this venue would be a good place to do it.

[Mr. Morden]

Day 2 live stream:

http://www.c-span.org/video/?324558-2/2015-conservative-political-action-conference&live=

[Mr. Morden]

A reminder that the straw poll results are due to be announced today at 5:10pm.  (Though based on previous years' experience, they often run late.)

That's early in the morning here in Perth, so there's a good chance I won't be awake yet.  So feel free to post the results here in this thread.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush actually made a strong push to get supporters there:

link

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[Mr. Morden]

Mark Halperin grades the performances of each of the 2016ers:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-02-26/mark-halperin-s-cpac-report-cards

Complete with gifs: