OK 2018: Boren open to running

[Miles]

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[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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Oklahoma+midterm = Boren loses

[IceSpear]

Don't bother Dan, it's Oklahoma. Satan (R) will beat Jesus (D) every time.

[PAK Man]

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Oklahoma+midterm = Boren loses

You do realize Boren won reelection to the House in 2010 with 56% of the vote, right?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

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Oklahoma+midterm = Boren loses

You do realize Boren won reelection to the House in 2010 with 56% of the vote, right?

At that time, I believe it was the most democratic district in the state, although it did still have a republican PVI.

[Miles]

^ It was something like R+13, IIRC. In terms of strictly PVI, CD5 was more D-friendly, but CD2 was (is) obviously far more Democratic by identification/tradition.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Bob Kerrey.

[Türkisblau]

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Oklahoma+midterm = Boren loses

Oklahoma+Mary Fallin's legacy+Family Name= Boren wins

[Maxwell]

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Oklahoma+midterm = Boren loses

You do realize Boren won reelection to the House in 2010 with 56% of the vote, right?

At that time, I believe it was the most democratic district in the state, although it did still have a republican PVI.

Not true. OK-5, the Oklahoma City district, is the least Republican PVI, though that district (Dan Boren's old one) is more historically Democratic.

It all depends on who is President. If Hillary is President, Dan won't run, because no matter what, Oklahoma will elect a Republican. If it's a Republican who is President, then the opportunity is there, especially after 8 years of Mary Fallin. I wouldn't be surprised if Dan won in that scenario, considering the Boren name has a very positive effect on people in this state (though I'm sure he does very poorly in Stillwater ).

[Skill and Chance]

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Oklahoma+midterm = Boren loses

You do realize Boren won reelection to the House in 2010 with 56% of the vote, right?

At that time, I believe it was the most democratic district in the state, although it did still have a republican PVI.

Not true. OK-5, the Oklahoma City district, is the least Republican PVI, though that district is more historically Democratic.

It all depends on who is President. If Hillary is President, Dan won't run, because no matter what, Oklahoma will elect a Republican. If it's a Republican who is President, then the opportunity is there, especially after 8 years of Mary Fallin. I wouldn't be surprised if Dan won in that scenario, considering the Boren name has a very positive effect on people in this state (though I'm sure he does very poorly in Stillwater ).

I think he's the right type to have a reverse Charlie Baker opening with an R president.

[ElectionsGuy]

He missed the perfect opportunity to run in 2014. Republicans will probably get a better candidate in 2018.

[Maxwell]

He missed the perfect opportunity to run in 2014. Republicans will probably get a better candidate in 2018.

Don't be so sure - I mean, yes, there is a bench, but there will also be a crowded primary. And chances are, if it's that crowded, someone could sneak out of it who could lose the general. I mean, generally even the sneaky ones still win the general (Most pundits thought Tom Coburn could very well lose to Brad Carson), but Boren could at least make a race out of it. But Boren is fairly calculating - he will not run if the tide is against him enough. Considering his voting record in Washington and the people he affiliates with, I'm almost (keyword: almost) surprised he won't be running for Governor as a Republican.

[Indy Texas]

He ought to just switch to the GOP if he wants to run. The GOP Establishment would no doubt be happy to have the Boren name in their tent and the Tea Party vote could fragment among multiple candidates in the primary. Then Oklahoma might have a sane Republican governor who isn't preoccupied with defending the state from sharia law and teh gayz.

[Maxwell]

He ought to just switch to the GOP if he wants to run. The GOP Establishment would no doubt be happy to have the Boren name in their tent and the Tea Party vote could fragment among multiple candidates in the primary. Then Oklahoma might have a sane Republican governor who isn't preoccupied with defending the state from sharia law and teh gayz.

Boren would lurch hard to the right if he joined the GOP. Think: Wes Watkins, who voted as a moderate Democrat, but when he switched parties, voted about as right-wing as he could.

Are you also aware Boren is a huge social conservative and is against "teh gayz"?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

He ought to just switch to the GOP if he wants to run. The GOP Establishment would no doubt be happy to have the Boren name in their tent and the Tea Party vote could fragment among multiple candidates in the primary. Then Oklahoma might have a sane Republican governor who isn't preoccupied with defending the state from sharia law and teh gayz.

Boren doesn't exactly have a stellar record on gay-related issues. However, he wouldn't be like Brownback on the issue.

[LeBron]

Oklahoma Republicans probably have a complete list of candidates ready to run in 2018, so even if Boren did change parties, wouldn't it be possible that he would face the same fate that Parker Griffith did in 2010 when he tried that?

Granted, Boren does belong in the Oklahoma Republican Party. For the love of God, I think the dude was right of Mike McIntyre on the political spectrum.

It's not like Oklahoma Democrats are going to get much better though. They ran a social conservative for governor and a fiscal conservative for Senate last year in hopes that they could win (or at least win more votes), so if Boren wanted the nomination, OK-Dems would likely be more than happy to give it to him even with views that are completely backwards.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

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Oklahoma+midterm = Boren loses

You do realize Boren won reelection to the House in 2010 with 56% of the vote, right?

It's diffrent than statewide race.

[Vega]

Why is this dude even a Democrat? He's to the right of most Republicans.

[Indy Texas]

Am I the only person who doesn't understand how when the Socialist Party was semi-relevant in the early 20th century, Oklahoma was one of their best states?

[Skill and Chance]

Am I the only person who doesn't understand how when the Socialist Party was semi-relevant in the early 20th century, Oklahoma was one of their best states?

I don't see the contradiction.  Oklahoma has always been socially conservative, but when the vast majority/plurality of the population practiced subsistence agriculture and lived through the Dust Bowl, the left was strong there.  When the majority of the population now has easy access to $50-150K oil-related jobs and can continue to live the 1950's social conservative lifestyle on those incomes due to the low cost of living, the left basically ceases to exist.

If there ever is a new opening for the left in OK, it would come from a decade long oil crash.

[MATTROSE94]

Am I the only person who doesn't understand how when the Socialist Party was semi-relevant in the early 20th century, Oklahoma was one of their best states?

I don't see the contradiction.  Oklahoma has always been socially conservative, but when the vast majority/plurality of the population practiced subsistence agriculture and lived through the Dust Bowl, the left was strong there.  When the majority of the population now has easy access to $50-150K oil-related jobs and can continue to live the 1950's social conservative lifestyle on those incomes due to the low cost of living, the left basically ceases to exist.

If there ever is a new opening for the left in OK, it would come from a decade long oil crash.

So Oklahoma was kind of like a populist state during the early part of the 20th Century, but shifted to a more conservative state beginning in the 1950s.

[Skill and Chance]

Am I the only person who doesn't understand how when the Socialist Party was semi-relevant in the early 20th century, Oklahoma was one of their best states?

I don't see the contradiction.  Oklahoma has always been socially conservative, but when the vast majority/plurality of the population practiced subsistence agriculture and lived through the Dust Bowl, the left was strong there.  When the majority of the population now has easy access to $50-150K oil-related jobs and can continue to live the 1950's social conservative lifestyle on those incomes due to the low cost of living, the left basically ceases to exist.

If there ever is a new opening for the left in OK, it would come from a decade long oil crash.

So Oklahoma was kind of like a populist state during the early part of the 20th Century, but shifted to a more conservative state beginning in the 1950s.

Yes.  Most of the more rural and less diverse Southern states show this behavior.  Some here are very intent on insisting that they are still populist, but the children of the FDR voters used the New Deal to get educated and buy property.  Even though their incomes are pretty average to slightly below, post-1950, they don't feel poor in any meaningful sense of the word.  Ike was the realignment.

[Indy Texas]

If there ever is a new opening for the left in OK, it would come from a decade long oil crash.

Ah yes, a collapse in the state's chief export commodity would surely make them more receptive to the Democratic Party.

That worked out so well in West Virginia and Kentucky...

[Skill and Chance]

If there ever is a new opening for the left in OK, it would come from a decade long oil crash.

Ah yes, a collapse in the state's chief export commodity would surely make them more receptive to the Democratic Party.

That worked out so well in West Virginia and Kentucky...

WV and KY were controlled in ironclad fashion by Democrats during the heyday of said commodity.  OK and TX for that matter are completely dominated by Republicans.  If things go south at the state and local level, who else is there to blame?  Think of the socially conservative Plains states and the 1980's farm crisis.  The Democrats grabbed several House and Senate seats and a couple of legislative chambers in very naturally Republican areas. 

[IceSpear]

If there ever is a new opening for the left in OK, it would come from a decade long oil crash.

Ah yes, a collapse in the state's chief export commodity would surely make them more receptive to the Democratic Party.

That worked out so well in West Virginia and Kentucky...

WV and KY were controlled in ironclad fashion by Democrats during the heyday of said commodity.  OK and TX for that matter are completely dominated by Republicans.  If things go south at the state and local level, who else is there to blame? 

Obama