IA-Loras College: Hillary drops below 50% for first time

[Tender Branson]

Field Dates: January 21-26, 2015
Completed Surveys: 1200
Margin of Error (for full sample): +/- 2.82%

48.3% Hillary Clinton
16.5% Elizabeth Warren
12.6% Joe Biden
  3.8% Bernie Sanders
  2.3% Jim Webb
  0.4% Martin O'Malley
16.1% Undecided

Methodology: The Loras College Poll surveyed 1,200 registered voters. Statewide results with full sample have a +/- 2.82 percent margin of error. The subsample of likely Republican caucus participants is 316, with a +/- 5.5 percent margin of error. The subsample of likely Democratic caucus participants is 261, with a +/- 6.06 percent margin of error. All results calculated at a 95 percent confidence interval. Both subsamples of party caucus-goers include no-party registrants who self-indicate likely participation in the 2016 party caucuses.

http://loras.edu/LorasCollege/files/d6/d69775e6-870f-465d-98fa-370cba8097b6.pdf

[Mehmentum]

Decimals.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

Decimals.

Still somewhat new around here; why are decimals bad?

[SPC]

Decimals.

Still somewhat new around here; why are decimals bad?

It's silly to report a statistic to a higher degree of precision than the margin of error.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The inevitability is fading....if Warren changes her mind.

[IceSpear]

The inevitability is fading....if Warren changes her mind.

31 points is still quite inevitable. Call me when her lead drops into the teens or lower, then we'll talk.

Besides, Selzer just showed her up 40.

[retromike22]

Decimals.

[Maxwell]

Warren and Biden surge. I think Biden's surge can be credited to the tumblr community:

[King]

The Clintons should definitely encourage Biden to run. He'd be the perfect practice for candidate for Hillary. He knows how to throw GOP-style punches to strengthen and principle her up without actually beating her.

[Eraserhead]

Of course she'll lose in Iowa if she gets a credible oppenent there. Big if.

[Mr. Illini]

The inevitability is fading....if Warren changes her mind.

31 points is still quite inevitable. Call me when her lead drops into the teens or lower, then we'll talk.

Besides, Selzer just showed her up 40.

We're also just under a year out from the Iowa caucus.

[IceSpear]

The inevitability is fading....if Warren changes her mind.

31 points is still quite inevitable. Call me when her lead drops into the teens or lower, then we'll talk.

Besides, Selzer just showed her up 40.

We're also just under a year out from the Iowa caucus.

Is there any precedent at all in recent history for a candidate who led by ~40 points 11 months in advance to lose? At this point in 2007, Hillary's lead in Iowa was a massive -1 point. The biggest lead any Republican ever had in Iowa in 2007 was 18 points. 2011? 13 points. Dems in 2003? 10 points. The only comparable examples are Gore and Bush in 2000, who had massive leads similar to Hillary's, and both easily won Iowa (and their respective nominations).

You also have to consider the strong possibility that Hillary's only competition will be a trio of weak underfunded candidates. Which actually lowers the probability of an upset even more due to the anti-Hillary vote not being consolidated.

[Mr. Morden]

The inevitability is fading....if Warren changes her mind.

31 points is still quite inevitable. Call me when her lead drops into the teens or lower, then we'll talk.

Besides, Selzer just showed her up 40.

We're also just under a year out from the Iowa caucus.

Is there any precedent at all in recent history for a candidate who led by ~40 points 11 months in advance to lose? At this point in 2007, Hillary's lead in Iowa was a massive -1 point. The biggest lead any Republican ever had in Iowa in 2007 was 18 points. 2011? 13 points. Dems in 2003? 10 points. The only comparable examples are Gore and Bush in 2000, who had massive leads similar to Hillary's, and both easily won Iowa (and their respective nominations).

True enough for Iowa.  Though there is precedent for such a massive lead collapsing in other states.  In New Hampshire as late as September 1999, the polling showed:

http://www.unh.edu/news/news_releases/1999/september/cd_19990914gop.html

Bush 45%
Dole 15%
McCain 12%

And McCain ended up winning by 18 points.