IA-Selzer: Walker leads

[RogueBeaver]

16% to 15% for Rand, 13% Huck, Carson 10% everyone else in single digits.

[Miles]

No Jindal in the top ten. #irrelevance

[Suburbia]

No Jindal in the top ten. #irrelevance

He may be the VP choice. He brings Southern appeal if the GOP nominate a Midwesterner/Northeasterner

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the full release:

http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2015-01-31/sat-93763-.pdf

The numbers given are a bit different from what you say in your post.  Though maybe you're trying to reallocate support from Romney?  I don't see an explicit "not Romney" scenario being tested here.

Dems

Clinton 56%
Warren 16%
Biden 9%
Sanders 5%
Webb 3%
O'Malley 1%

GOP

Walker 15%
Paul 14%
Romney 13%
Huckabee 10%
Carson 9%
Bush 8%
Cruz 5%
Christie 4%
Santorum 4%
Rubio 3%
Jindal 2%
Fiorina 1%
Kasich 1%
Trump 1%
Pence 0%

[RogueBeaver]

Morden: reallocated # are in this article.

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav among Dem. voters:

Obama 86/13% for +73%
Clinton 84/15% for +69%
Biden 78/20% for +58%
Warren 58/11% for +47%
Sanders 37/12% for +25%
Webb 21/11% for +10%
O'Malley 13/9% for +4%

fav/unfav among GOP voters:

Walker 60/12% for +48%
Paul 64/25% for +39%
Huckabee 66/28% for +38%
Perry 64/26% for +38%
Carson 50/12% for +38%
Cruz 58/21% for +37%
Rubio 57/20% for +37%
Santorum 57/30% for +27%
Jindal 39/20% for +19%
Romney 57/40% for +17%
Kasich 22/14% for +8%
Bush 46/43% for +3%
Pence 13/14% for -1%
Fiorina 15/19% for -4%
Christie 36/54% for -18%
Trump 26/68% for -42%

Biggest movers on the GOP side since their October poll: Walker gains 11 points to his favorable number and Bush gains 15 points to his unfavorable number.

[IceSpear]

I expected Walker to surge eventually, but not this soon...

[porky88]

Walker winning Iowa seems right. He agrees with the grassroots on all the social issues, and he's govern as a conservative in a Midwestern state. He'll play real well there. I'm curious as to how he'll play in South Carolina, though. That will be his big test. If he's able to appeal to southern conservatives, he'll be tough to beat in the primaries. If he struggles because of the regional differences, then I suspect there's an opening for someone.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

+3 approval for Bush is very telling.

[Bull Moose Base]

I expected Walker to surge eventually, but not this soon...

Yep. Still a year and all the debates to go. Looks like we'll find out quickly the answer asked by Keystone Phil as to what will his rivals  attack him on.

I wonder if the Iowa winner will break 20%.

Also, Christie -18 favorables among Republicans!

[Mr. Morden]

I wonder if the Iowa winner will break 20%.

Almost certainly yes.  We're not going to have more than 10 candidates a year from now, and once caucus time approaches, there'll be more consolidation around candidates expected to actually perform well.  (Maybe calling it "tactical voting" would be too strong, but at the very least we'll have a few candidates consistently topping the polls, and those candidates will get more media attention and strip away some of the soft support from the also-rans.)

[retromike22]

Walker 15%
Paul 14%
Romney 13%
Huckabee 10%
Carson 9%
Bush 8%
Cruz 5%
Christie 4%
Santorum 4%
Rubio 3%
Jindal 2%
Fiorina 1%
Kasich 1%
Trump 1%
Pence 0%

That's over 25% that can be allocated. I agree that Walker's rising but it's still really, really early.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Yes, yes. It begins.

Walker wins Iowa, Christie or Paul wins New Hampshire and eliminates the other. Then comes the battle for SC.

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, yes. It begins.

Walker wins Iowa, Christie or Paul wins New Hampshire and eliminates the other. Then comes the battle for SC.

What does Nevada have to do to get some respect? 

[IceSpear]

Yes, yes. It begins.

Walker wins Iowa, Christie or Paul wins New Hampshire and eliminates the other. Then comes the battle for SC.

What about Jeb? I'd imagine he'd be gunning for NH as well...

[Mr. Morden]

OK, here's the full list once you reallocate support from Romney:



Also of interest from the writeup about Walker:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Flake]

The person who gains the most from Romney leaving is Huckabee apparently.

[Tender Branson]

I expected Walker to surge eventually, but not this soon...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I expected Walker to surge eventually, but not this soon...

I expect a Huckabee comeback in Iowa, but who stands to lose is Jeb Bush, hopefully he doesn't win.

[Mehmentum]

Wow, Jeb is weaker than I thought.  A Walker v. Paul v. Huckabee fight for Iowa would be interesting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good, the media focus off of Mitt Romney, have contributed to Jeb's demise, which was suppose to be a
Romney-Jeb race, has opened the primary up, to new players.

[Maxwell]

Walker-mentum! And Paul's not doing bad either

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Yes, yes. It begins.

Walker wins Iowa, Christie or Paul wins New Hampshire and eliminates the other. Then comes the battle for SC.

What about Jeb? I'd imagine he'd be gunning for NH as well...

I'd say he'd be more competitive in Iowa.

NH tends to favor either moderates like Christie or renegades like Paul. I imagine if Bush wins Iowa, the money could shift his way quickly and the race would be over almost immediately after a win for him in NH as well. But I don't see that happening. I think he'll lose the first two a-list primaries and be a slim favorite in SC.

[Bull Moose Base]

Yes, yes. It begins.

Walker wins Iowa, Christie or Paul wins New Hampshire and eliminates the other. Then comes the battle for SC.

What about Jeb? I'd imagine he'd be gunning for NH as well...

I'd say he'd be more competitive in Iowa.

NH tends to favor either moderates like Christie or renegades like Paul. I imagine if Bush wins Iowa, the money could shift his way quickly and the race would be over almost immediately after a win for him in NH as well. But I don't see that happening. I think he'll lose the first two a-list primaries and be a slim favorite in SC.

You don't think Bush can win New Hampshire because they favor moderates? New Hampshire usually offers up a different winner than Iowa, whether they're trying to do that specifically or not. Last cycle was a little different because Romney was still believed to be the Iowa winner when he won New Hampshire. But I could see Bush winning NH after not finishing top 3 in IA.

Also, Iowa could easily be won by someone besides Walker or Paul. They're barely ahead of the rest, are only polling in the mid-teens, and there's a year to go. As I've said on another thread, last time, Santorum was tied with Perry and Bachmann for last place in Iowa with less than a week to go before Caucus Day.

[Bull Moose Base]

Also of interest from the writeup about Walker:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It also says with Romney out, Huckabee is no. 2 after Walker for people who want an establishment candidate.