If Electoral Votes Were Cast in Proportion to PVs

[HankW501]

Some have suggested that U.S. presidential elections would be more fair if EVs were cast in proportion to PVs instead of winner-takes-all.  So I calculated the number of votes each state would have given to each ticket in every election from 1864 to 2012 if the electoral appointments of every state in every election as closely as possible matched the state's popular vote assuming no difference in each state's total number of EVs in each election.  What I found in those 38 elections was that the practice did manage to turn the elections of 1876 and 1888 in favor of the winners of the nationwide PV, but it also sent the 2000 election AND TEN OTHER ELECTIONS to be decided by Congress.  That's 29%!

Here are the totals from each election from my calculations, including the minimum numbers of votes required.  Years without an electoral majority are in red.

1864
118 (50.4%) --> minimum required
129 (55.1%) --> Lincoln/Johnson (Republican)
105 (44.9%) --> McClellan/Pendleton (Democratic)

1868
148 (50.3%) --> minimum required
156 (53.1%) --> Grant/Colfax (Republican)
138 (46.9%) --> Seymour/Blair (Democratic)

1872
177 (50.3%) --> minimum required
199 (56.5%) --> Grant/Wilson (Republican)
152 (43.2%) --> Adams/Brown (Democratic) *
1 (0.3%) --> (no candidate)

1876
185 (50.1%) --> minimum required
188 (50.9%) --> Tilden/Hendricks (Democratic)
179 (48.5%) --> Hayes/Wheeler (Republican)
2 (0.5%) --> Cooper/Cary (Greenback)

1880
185 (50.1%) --> minimum required
181 (49.1%) --> Garfield/Arthur (Republican)
181 (49.1%) --> Hancock/English (Democratic)
7 (1.9%) --> Weaver/Chambers (Greenback)

1884
201 (50.1%) --> minimum required
204 (50.9%) --> Cleveland/Hendricks (Democratic)
191 (47.6%) --> Blaine/Logan (Republican)
4 (1.0%) --> Butler/West (Greenback)
2 (0.5%) --> Saint John/Daniel (Prohibition)

1888
201 (50.1%) --> minimum required
204 (50.9%) --> Cleveland/Thurman (Democratic)
189 (47.1%) --> Harrison/Morton (Republican)
5 (1.2%) --> Fisk/Brooks (Prohibition)
3 (0.7%) --> Streeter/Cunningham (Union Labor)

1892
223 (50.2%) --> minimum required
209 (47.1%) --> Cleveland/Stevenson (Democratic)
184 (41.4%) --> Harrison/Reid (Republican)
46 (10.4%) --> Weaver/Field (Populist)
5 (1.1%) --> Bidwell/Cranfill (Prohibition)

1896
224 (50.1%) --> minimum required
226 (50.6%) --> McKinley/Hobart (Republican)
220 (49.2%) --> Bryan/Sewall (Democratic)
1 (0.2%) --> Levering/Johnson (Prohibition)

1900
224 (50.1%) --> minimum required
222 (49.7%) --> McKinley/Roosevelt (Republican)
222 (49.7%) --> Bryan/Stevenson (Democratic)
2 (0.4%) --> Woolley/Metcalf (Prohibition)
1 (0.2%) --> Barker/Donnelly (Populist)

1904
239 (50.2%) --> minimum required
248 (52.1%) --> Roosevelt/Fairbanks (Republican)
211 (44.3%) --> Parker/Davis (Democratic)
8 (1.7%) --> Debs/Hanford (Socialist)
5 (1.1%) --> Watson/Tibbles (Populist)
4 (0.8%) --> Swallow/Carroll (Prohibition)

1908
242 (50.1%) --> minimum required
239 (49.5%) --> Taft/Sherman (Republican)
230 (47.6%) --> Bryan/Kern (Democratic)
7 (1.4%) --> Debs/Hanford (Socialist)
3 (0.6%) --> Chafin/Watkins (Prohibition)
2 (0.4%) --> Hisgen/Graves (Independence)
2 (0.4%) --> Watson/Williams (Populist)

1912
266 (50.1%) --> minimum required
252 (47.5%) --> Wilson/Marshall (Democratic)
136 (25.6%) --> Roosevelt/Johnson (Progressive)
112 (21.1%) --> Taft/Butler (Republican)
29 (5.5%) --> Debs/Seidel (Socialist)
2 (0.4%) --> Chafin/Watkins (Prohibition)

1916
266 (50.1%) --> minimum required
286 (53.9%) --> Wilson/Marshall (Democratic)
230 (43.3%) --> Hughes/Fairbanks (Republican)
10 (1.9%) --> Benson/Kirkpatrick (Socialist)
2 (0.4%) --> Hanly/Landrith (Prohibition)
3 (0.6%) --> (no candidate)

1920
266 (50.1%) --> minimum required
303 (57.1%) --> Harding/Coolidge (Republican)
209 (39.4%) --> Cox/Roosevelt (Democratic)
12 (2.3%) --> Debs/Stedman (Socialist)
3 (0.6%) --> Christensen/Hayes (Farmer-Labor)
2 (0.4%) --> Ferguson/Hough (American)
1 (0.2%) --> Watkins/Colvin (Prohibition)
1 (0.2%) --> (no candidate)

1924
266 (50.1%) --> minimum required
263 (49.5%) --> Coolidge/Dawes (Republican)
192 (36.2%) --> Davis/Bryan (Democratic)
76 (14.3%) --> LaFollette/Wheeler (Progressive)

1928
266 (50.1%) --> minimum required
299 (56.3%) --> Hoover/Curtis (Republican)
231 (43.5%) --> Smith/Robinson (Democratic)
1 (0.2%) --> Thomas/Maurer (Socialist)

1932
266 (50.1%) --> minimum required
328 (61.8%) --> Roosevelt/Garner (Democratic)
196 (36.9%) --> Hoover/Curtis (Republican)
7 (1.3%) --> Thomas/Maurer (Socialist)

1936
266 (50.1%) --> minimum required
347 (65.3%) --> Roosevelt/Garner (Democratic)
175 (33.0%) --> Landon/Knox (Republican)
8 (1.5%) --> Lemke/O'Brian (Union)
1 (0.2%) --> Thomas/Nelson (Socialist)

1940
266 (50.1%) --> minimum required
315 (59.3%) --> Roosevelt/Wallace (Democratic)
216 (40.7%) --> Willkie/McNary (Republican)

1944
266 (50.1%) --> minimum required
299 (56.3%) --> Roosevelt/Truman (Democratic)
228 (42.9%) --> Dewey/Bricker (Republican)
4 (0.8%) --> (no candidate)

1948
266 (50.1%) --> minimum required
259 (48.8%) --> Truman/Barkley (Democratic)
227 (42.7%) --> Dewey/Warren (Republican)
39 (7.3%) --> Thurmond/Wright (State's Rights)
6 (1.1%) --> Wallace/Taylor (Progressive)

1952
266 (50.1%) --> minimum required
291 (54.8%) --> Eisenhower/Nixon (Republican)
240 (45.2%) --> Stevenson/Sparkman (Democratic)

1956
266 (50.1%) --> minimum required
296 (55.7%) --> Eisenhower/Nixon (Republican)
231 (43.5%) --> Stevenson/Kefauver (Democratic)
4 (0.8%) --> (unpledged)

1960
269 (50.1%) --> minimum required
270 (50.3%) --> Kennedy/Johnson (Democratic)
261 (48.6%) --> Nixon/Lodge (Republican)
1 (0.2%) --> Faubus/Crommelin (National State's Rights)
5 (0.9%) --> (unpledged)

1964
270 (50.2%) --> minimum required
320 (59.5%) --> Johnson/Humphrey (Democratic)
215 (40.0%) --> Goldwater/Miller (Republican)
3 (0.6%) --> (unpledged)

1968
270 (50.2%) --> minimum required
236 (43.9%) --> Nixon/Agnew (Republican)
227 (42.2%) --> Humphrey/Muskie (Democratic)
75 (13.9%) --> Wallace/LeMay (American Independent)

1972
270 (50.2%) --> minimum required
336 (62.5%) --> Nixon/Agnew (Republican)
201 (37.4%) --> McGovern/Shriver (Democratic)
1 (0.2%) --> Schmitz/Anderson (American)

1976
270 (50.2%) --> minimum required
273 (50.7%) --> Carter/Mondale (Democratic)
265 (49.3%) --> Ford/Dole (Republican)

1980
270 (50.2%) --> minimum required
277 (51.5%) --> Reagan/Bush (Republican)
225 (41.8%) --> Carter/Mondale (Democratic)
35 (6.5%) --> Anderson/Lucey (Independent)
1 (0.2%) --> Clark/Koch (Libertarian)

1984
270 (50.2%) --> minimum required
320 (59.5%) --> Reagan/Bush (Republican)
218 (40.5%) --> Mondale/Ferraro (Democratic)

1988
270 (50.2%) --> minimum required
291 (54.1%) --> Bush/Quayle (Republican)
247 (45.9%) --> Dukakis/Bentsen (Democratic)

1992
270 (50.2%) --> minimum required
237 (44.1%) --> Clinton/Gore (Democratic)
197 (36.6%) --> Bush/Quayle (Republican)
104 (19.3%) --> Perot/Stockdale (Independent)

1996
270 (50.2%) --> minimum required
267 (49.6%) --> Clinton/Gore (Democratic)
225 (41.8%) --> Dole/Kemp (Republican)
45 (8.4%) --> Perot/Choate (Reform)
1 (0.2%) --> Nader/LaDuke (Green)

2000
270 (50.2%) --> minimum required
266 (49.4%) --> Gore/Lieberman (Democratic)
265 (49.3%) --> Bush/Cheney (Republican)
7 (1.3%) --> Nader/LaDuke (Green)

2004
270 (50.2%) --> minimum required
280 (52.0%) --> Bush/Cheney (Republican)
258 (48.0%) --> Kerry/Edwards (Democratic)

2008
270 (50.2%) --> minimum required
289 (53.7%) --> Obama/Biden (Democratic)
249 (46.3%) --> McCain/Palin (Republican)

2012
270 (50.2%) --> minimum required
275 (51.1%) --> Obama/Biden (Democratic)
262 (48.7%) --> Romney/Ryan (Republican)
1 (0.2%) --> Johnson/Gray (Libertarian)

* Charles F. Adams (son of John Quincy Adams) seemed to me to be the logical recipient of the Democratic votes after the death of Horace Greeley five days before the casting of the electoral votes in 1872 since he finished 1st on the 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th ballots and 2nd on the 2nd and 6th (final) ballots at the Democratic National Convention.

[HankW501]

For the eleven elections that would have gone to Congress I figured out the likely winners based on the makeup of the House and Senate in each case and assuming that every Republican would vote for the Republican and every Democrat would vote for the Democrat:

1880 --> (inconclusive)/English
1892 --> Cleveland/Reid
1900 --> McKinley/Roosevelt
1908 --> Taft/Sherman
1912 --> (inconclusive)/Butler
1924 --> (inconclusive)/Dawes
1948 --> Truman/Barkley
1968 --> Humphrey/Muskie
1992 --> Clinton/Gore
1996 --> Dole/Kemp
2000 --> Bush/(inconclusive)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

What does the "minimum required" mean?

[Goldwater]

What does the "minimum required" mean?

I'm pretty sure it's the number of electoral votes needed to win.

[Skill and Chance]

Very interesting, thanks for putting this together!

It's always the new congress that gets to implement the 12th Amendment in January, but it looks like you accounted for that because you have 2000 VP inconclusive due to the 50/50 senate.  I am surprised at how often this would send elections to congress.  The skew of statewide allocation is nothing compared to Wyoming and Vermont directly canceling out California and Texas in the House vote, so perhaps this method is not really any more Democratic over the long term.  Especially when you consider that a House vote basically ensured a Democratic president for 10 consecutive elections and will ensure a Republican president for the indefinite future.

[HankW501]

Based on the fact that in June of '01 Jim Jeffords of Vermont switched from the Republican Party to independent and started caucusing with the Democratic Party, I believe the odds favor the winners in a Congress-decided 2000 election being Bush/Lieberman, almost a flashback to 1796 except that since in 1796 opposing presidential candidates became President and Vice President, a true 1796 "flashback" would be if Gore became Bush's VP or vice versa (impossible since the House's choices are limited to the top three presidential electoral vote recipients, and the Senate is limited to choosing between the top two recipients of vice presidential electoral votes).

[Skill and Chance]

It would generally result in at least 1 swing vote in each state with >5 EV and 5-10 swing votes in CA and TX, right?  Of course with campaigns being free to journey outside the swing states, you just might see an attempt to get 85% in WY or VT if it looked viable. 

[HankW501]

If every state cast its electoral votes in proportion to their popular votes, here's how each state would have voted in the 2012 presidential & vice-presidential elections:

State	Dem.	Rep.	Lib.
Alabama	3	6
Alaska	1	2
Arizona	5	6
Arkansas	2	4
California	33	21	1
Colorado	5	4
Connecticut	4	3
Delaware	2	1
District of Columbia	3
Florida	15	14
Georgia	7	9
Hawaii	3	1
Idaho	1	3
Illinois	12	8
Indiana	5	6
Iowa	3	3
Kansas	2	4
Kentucky	3	5
Louisiana	3	5
Maine	2	2
Maryland	6	4
Massachusetts	7	4
Michigan	9	7
Minnesota	5	5
Mississippi	3	3
Missouri	5	5
Montana	1	2
Nebraska	2	3
Nevada	3	3
New Hampshire	2	2
New Jersey	8	6
New Mexico	3	2
New York	19	10
North Carolina	7	8
North Dakota	1	2
Ohio	9	9
Oklahoma	2	5
Oregon	4	3
Pennsylvania	11	9
Rhode Island	3	1
South Carolina	4	5
South Dakota	1	2
Tennessee	4	7
Texas	16	22
Utah	2	4
Vermont	2	1
Virginia	7	6
Washington	7	5
West Virginia	2	3
Wisconsin	5	5
Wyoming	1	2
Totals	275	262	1

[HankW501]

If every state cast its electoral votes in proportion to their popular votes, here's how each state would have voted in the 2008 presidential & vice-presidential elections:

State	Obama/Biden	McCain/Palin
Alabama	4	5
Alaska	1	2
Arizona	5	5
Arkansas	2	4
California	34	21
Colorado	5	4
Connecticut	4	3
Delaware	2	1
District of Columbia	3
Florida	14	13
Georgia	7	8
Hawaii	3	1
Idaho	1	3
Illinois	13	8
Indiana	6	5
Iowa	4	3
Kansas	3	3
Kentucky	3	5
Louisiana	4	5
Maine	2	2
Maryland	6	4
Massachusetts	8	4
Michigan	10	7
Minnesota	6	4
Mississippi	3	3
Missouri	5	6
Montana	1	2
Nebraska	2	3
Nevada	3	2
New Hampshire	2	2
New Jersey	9	6
New Mexico	3	2
New York	20	11
North Carolina	8	7
North Dakota	1	2
Ohio	10	10
Oklahoma	2	5
Oregon	4	3
Pennsylvania	12	9
Rhode Island	3	1
South Carolina	4	4
South Dakota	1	2
Tennessee	5	6
Texas	15	19
Utah	2	3
Vermont	2	1
Virginia	7	6
Washington	6	5
West Virginia	2	3
Wisconsin	6	4
Wyoming	1	2
Totals	289	249

[Stan]

Very interesting. I think can be interesting the role of Nader in 2000 with this system...

[bagelman]

Very interesting. I think can be interesting the role of Nader in 2000 with this system...

My guess is he would prevent a majority, and the house elects Bush.

But if we had this system beforehand there might be some other system created after 1992.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Bush in 2004 would have done better then Reagan in 1980 lol

[HankW501]

Bush in 2004 would have done better then Reagan in 1980 lol

Correct, Bush/Cheney in 2004 would have had 3 more votes than Reagan/Bush in 1980.  Here are the details (the 1980 details are in a separate post due to the maximum post size limit):

2004

State	Bush/Cheney	Kerry/Edwards
Alabama	6	3
Alaska	2	1
Arizona	6	4
Arkansas	3	3
California	25	30
Colorado	5	4
Connecticut	3	4
Delaware	1	2
District of Columbia		3
Florida	14	13
Georgia	9	6
Hawaii	2	2
Idaho	3	1
Illinois	9	12
Indiana	7	4
Iowa	4	3
Kansas	4	2
Kentucky	5	3
Louisiana	5	4
Maine	2	2
Maryland	4	6
Massachusetts	4	8
Michigan	8	9
Minnesota	5	5
Mississippi	4	2
Missouri	6	5
Montana	2	1
Nebraska	3	2
Nevada	3	2
New Hampshire	2	2
New Jersey	7	8
New Mexico	3	2
New York	13	18
North Carolina	8	7
North Dakota	2	1
Ohio	10	10
Oklahoma	5	2
Oregon	3	4
Pennsylvania	10	11
Rhode Island	2	2
South Carolina	5	3
South Dakota	2	1
Tennessee	6	5
Texas	21	13
Utah	4	1
Vermont	1	2
Virginia	7	6
Washington	5	6
West Virginia	3	2
Wisconsin	5	5
Wyoming	2	1
Totals	280	258

[HankW501]

Bush in 2004 would have done better then Reagan in 1980 lol

Here is how each state would have voted in 1980 if its electoral votes were proportional to its popular votes (as close as possible):

State	Reagan/Bush	Carter/Mondale	Anderson/Lucey	Clark/Koch
Alabama	5	4
Alaska	2	1
Arizona	3	2	1
Arkansas	3	3
California	24	16	4	1
Colorado	4	2	1
Connecticut	4	3	1
Delaware	2	1
District of Columbia		3
Florida	9	7	1
Georgia	5	7
Hawaii	2	2
Idaho	3	1
Illinois	13	11	2
Indiana	7	5	1
Iowa	4	3	1
Kansas	4	2	1
Kentucky	5	4
Louisiana	5	5
Maine	2	2
Maryland	4	5	1
Massachusetts	6	6	2
Michigan	10	9	2
Minnesota	4	5	1
Mississippi	4	3
Missouri	6	6
Montana	3	1
Nebraska	4	1
Nevada	2	1
New Hampshire	2	1	1
New Jersey	9	7	1
New Mexico	2	2
New York	20	18	3
North Carolina	7	6
North Dakota	2	1
Ohio	13	10	2
Oklahoma	5	3
Oregon	3	2	1
Pennsylvania	13	12	2
Rhode Island	1	2	1
South Carolina	4	4
South Dakota	3	1
Tennessee	5	5
Texas	14	11	1
Utah	3	1
Vermont	1	1	1
Virginia	6	5	1
Washington	5	3	1
West Virginia	3	3
Wisconsin	5	5	1
Wyoming	2	1
Totals	277	225	35	1

[HankW501]

What happens with the elections without anyone reaching a majority? The election still goes down to the House floor?

Yes, in the case where nobody receives an absolute majority of electoral votes (at least 270 votes since 1964), the U.S. House of Representatives still elects the President and the U.S. Senate still elects the Vice President.  Despite the outcry the last time the House chose the President, in 1824, the Constitution remains unchanged on that subject to this day.  (The only time that the Senate elected the Vice President was in 1836.  The Senate elected Martin Van Buren's running mate, Richard M. Johnson, who finished one electoral vote short of the minimum.)

[HankW501]

Here are the top ten electoral vote landslides from my list:

#1 - 65.3% - Roosevelt/Garner in 1936
#2 - 62.5% - Nixon/Agnew in 1972
#3 - 61.8% - Roosevelt/Garner in 1933
#4 (tie) - 59.5% - Johnson/Humphrey in 1964
#4 (tie) - 59.5% - Reagan/Bush in 1984
#6 - 59.3% - Roosevelt/Wallace in 1940
#7 - 57.1% - Harding/Coolidge in 1921
#8 - 56.5% - Grant/Wilson in 1872
#9 (tie) - 56.3% - Hoover/Curtis in 1929
#9 (tie) - 56.3% - Roosevelt/Truman in 1944