National Journal: The Emerging Republican Advantage

[hopper]

Problem for Democrats running for Congress but might not impact the presidential race just yet. A lot depends on what happens in Florida as it has a lot of poor minorities and second/third generation immigrants. If the GOP can moderate on social issues they have a chance to win more of these middle class voters. Of course if this happens then our politics will get less ugly anyway.

Well the Same Sex Marriage issue is a big loser for the GOP now. Of course the party is spilt on immigration reform(this will hurt the party in the long term) the longer the issue is in limbo in reference to an immigration reform bill getting done. The marijuana issue the GOP hasn't take a hard-line issue on like Same-Sex Marriage or be fighting over like immigration reform.)

[hopper]

The Republican Party has the House of Representatives locked up due to gerrymandering until some core constituency departs.

Well mostly no and a little yes on your comment.

No, its not all because of gerrymandering that the R's have a majority in the US House. Its that the R's have a natural advantage in the race for the US House majority. Their voters are more spread out geographically than the Dems votes are. 16 out of the last 20 years the R's have head the US House Majority and 4 of them when the Dem had he US House Majority were because Bush W. was hated in 2006 and he GOP had a bad year electorally in 2008.

Yes, the Dems would have more seats in the US House because of GOP gerrymandering but not enough for a Dem US House Majority if the map was neutral(no gerrymandering.)

[hopper]

Who ever wins in 2016 will be a one term president

The last 4 term multiple same party rule, presidencies were McKinley, Roosevelt and Taft, and 3 term multiple presidencies were 1981-1992.

I think it is time for Dems with Clinton to do same with hispanic growth.

At least until the legacy of SCOTUS changes with times and become like rest of country, and become liberal leaning.

Well more socially liberal I think. I don't think the electorate is economically liberal. I think the electorate is "Moderate" on economic issues rather than "liberal" or "conservative".

[hopper]

The Republican Party has the House of Representatives locked up due to gerrymandering until some core constituency departs.

Well mostly no and a little yes on your comment.

No, its not all because of gerrymandering that the R's have a majority in the US House. Its that the R's have a natural advantage in the race for the US House majority. Their voters are more spread out geographically than the Dems votes are. 16 out of the last 20 years the R's have head the US House Majority and 4 of them when the Dem had he US House Majority were because Bush W. was hated in 2006 and he GOP had a bad year electorally in 2008.

Yes, the Dems would have more seats in the US House because of GOP gerrymandering but not enough for a Dem US House Majority if the map was neutral(no gerrymandering.)

This is absolutely true, and why there ought to be multi-member districts. The fact of single member districts helps Republicans right now, but in general it provides a structural advantage in the House to whichever party has its support base more spread out geographically.

Well the "Electoral College Map" helps the Dems right now though too, that's another way of looking at it.