FL/PA/OH-Quinnipiac: Clinton leads all Republicans in all three states

[Mr. Morden]

FL/PA/OH-Quinnipiac: Clinton leads all Republicans in all three states

Quinnipiac polls FL, OH, and PA:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2130

Florida

Clinton 51%
Christie 33%

Clinton 44%
Bush 43%

Clinton 50%
Paul 38%

Clinton 51%
Huckabee 34%

Clinton 50%
Romney 37%

Clinton 49%
Rubio 39%

Ohio

Clinton 47%
Christie 33%

Clinton 47%
Bush 36%

Clinton 48%
Paul 36%

Clinton 49%
Huckabee 34%

Clinton 49%
Romney 37%

Clinton 44%
Kasich 43%

Pennsylvania

Clinton 50%
Christie 39%

Clinton 50%
Bush 35%

Clinton 53%
Paul 34%

Clinton 54%
Huckabee 34%

Clinton 53%
Romney 36%

Clinton 54%
Santorum 34%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton momentum especially against jeb in Ohio.

[Knives]

Jesus christ. Slay Hillary.

[Tender Branson]

There are positive and negative points to make about Hillary in this poll:

* She leads in at least 2 out of the 3 important, big battleground states. If she wins 2 of them, it's almost guaranteed that she also wins the Presidency.

* But: she only manages a tie against Bush in FL and Kasich in OH, politicians who have virtually the same (or lower) favorable ratings in those states than Hillary. This indicates that when matched against a well known moderate GOPer, she only manages a tie and has no advantage anymore that she enjoys against not so well known/unpopular candidates right now. That could indicate that further towards election day, some moderate GOPer could have an opening in states such as OH, WI, IA etc. when this candidate gets better known.

[pbrower2a]

The simple math:

If she loses all three states, she has lost. One of the three? She has a chance at a close election in both the popular vote and electoral vote (but she would have to win some combination of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and Virginia). Two of the three? Most likely Obama 2012 without Florida. All three? Brink of a landslide.

Because Hillary Clinton is above 50% in Pennsylvania with more than a 10% margin, any Republican nominee for President has little reasonable chance of winning Pennsylvania.  He would need a collapse by Hillary Clinton to win Pennsylvania.

The Republican nominee really needs to win both Florida and Ohio because if he is losing Pennsylvania by 7% or so, then the Blue Firewall is rock-solid.  So if some Republican nominee can win Florida by 1% and lose Ohio by 4%, or vice-versa  -- then that is worthless.   

[dmmidmi]

Clinton will come back down to earth once she is exposed for the radical liberal leftist Marxist feminist centrist that she really is.

Just wait until people get to know Hillary Clinton.

[King]

The Kasich number shows Ohio is a pretty soft lead but Florida looks lost for the GOP.

[Phony Moderate]

I remember Quinnipiac showing absurdly high Obama leads in those states in September 2012.

[Tender Branson]

I remember Quinnipiac showing absurdly high Obama leads in those states in September 2012.

That's not surprising, because the DNC took place in early September, which means the polls that were done after it showed a significant bounce.

The final polls from Quinnipiac in FL, OH and PA were pretty good though:

FL: Obama+1 (actual: Obama+1)
OH: Obama+5 (actual: Obama+3)
PA: Obama+4 (actual: Obama+5)

[BlueSwan]

I have to say that those are surprisingly big leads in the top 3 battleground states. Pennsylvania was always a long shot for the GOP and really it doesn't even look in contention here. What is more surprising is that only the "favourite sons" make Ohio (Kasich) and Florida (Bush) competitive. Everybody else is left in the dust. Sure those numbers are gonna become closer, everybody is aware of that, but these are not good numbers for the GOP at this time.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I want to believe these numbers but Quinnipiac always has Clinton way inflated compared to PPP in FL and to some extent OH.

[Brittain33]

Skeptical these numbers hold up in the long run but >50% in PA is very encouraging.

[Lief 🗽]

Dominating!

[Beet]

If only the election was on February 4th, 2015.

[IceSpear]

* But: she only manages a tie against Bush in FL and Kasich in OH, politicians who have virtually the same (or lower) favorable ratings in those states than Hillary. This indicates that when matched against a well known moderate GOPer, she only manages a tie and has no advantage anymore that she enjoys against not so well known/unpopular candidates right now. That could indicate that further towards election day, some moderate GOPer could have an opening in states such as OH, WI, IA etc. when this candidate gets better known.

No, it indicates that when matched up against a very popular current or former governor in their own state, they have a big home state advantage. Which isn't exactly surprising. Not everybody is going to be Rubio or Santorum, it was always obvious that OH/FL wouldn't exactly be easily pickings against Kasich/Jeb.

[IceSpear]

I want to believe these numbers but Quinnipiac always has Clinton way inflated compared to PPP in FL and to some extent OH.

PPP is usually the outlier with regards to showing Hillary doing worse than everybody else. For instance, these were Clinton vs. Christie polls from last year taken in a similar time frame:

[Tender Branson]

* But: she only manages a tie against Bush in FL and Kasich in OH, politicians who have virtually the same (or lower) favorable ratings in those states than Hillary. This indicates that when matched against a well known moderate GOPer, she only manages a tie and has no advantage anymore that she enjoys against not so well known/unpopular candidates right now. That could indicate that further towards election day, some moderate GOPer could have an opening in states such as OH, WI, IA etc. when this candidate gets better known.

No, it indicates that when matched up against a very popular current or former governor in their own state, they have a big home state advantage. Which isn't exactly surprising. Not everybody is going to be Rubio or Santorum, it was always obvious that OH/FL wouldn't exactly be easily pickings against Kasich/Jeb.

Nope, it exactly indicates that. See Christie, when he was popular before his bridge-scandal.

He was able to be tied with/ahead of Hillary in other states too, not just NJ.

[IceSpear]

* But: she only manages a tie against Bush in FL and Kasich in OH, politicians who have virtually the same (or lower) favorable ratings in those states than Hillary. This indicates that when matched against a well known moderate GOPer, she only manages a tie and has no advantage anymore that she enjoys against not so well known/unpopular candidates right now. That could indicate that further towards election day, some moderate GOPer could have an opening in states such as OH, WI, IA etc. when this candidate gets better known.

No, it indicates that when matched up against a very popular current or former governor in their own state, they have a big home state advantage. Which isn't exactly surprising. Not everybody is going to be Rubio or Santorum, it was always obvious that OH/FL wouldn't exactly be easily pickings against Kasich/Jeb.

Nope, it exactly indicates that. See Christie, when he was popular before his bridge-scandal.

He was able to be tied with/ahead of Hillary in other states too, not just NJ.

Christie isn't really an apples to apples comparison. He used to be beloved across the political spectrum back in late 2013, even routinely sporting positive approval/favorability among Democrats. That will never be the case for someone like Jeb, who not so coincidentally is getting curbstomped across the Midwest. He has a real weakness there, and the continually decreasing name recognition gap isn't going to solve it.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Weird how long it is taking pollsters to cotton on to the existence of Scott Walker.

[Devils30]

Hillary is very strong in Florida and could win it. It just won't be part of her first 270. Jeb and Kasich get the home state effect, it's just that the GOP needs both FL and OH to even have a chance.

[IceSpear]

Hillary is very strong in Florida and could win it. It just won't be part of her first 270. Jeb and Kasich get the home state effect, it's just that the GOP needs both FL and OH to even have a chance.

It could be part of her 270 against a non-Jeb candidate.

[Skill and Chance]

Hillary is very strong in Florida and could win it. It just won't be part of her first 270. Jeb and Kasich get the home state effect, it's just that the GOP needs both FL and OH to even have a chance.

It could be part of her 270 against a non-Jeb candidate.

I can believe that.  Most polling thus far has CO and VA weaker for Hillary than FL and usually OH.

[Devils30]

Oh yeah, Florida could be the tipping point vs Walker. Jeb isn't terribly strong in Colorado either though. If Hillary wins PA, FL she wins the election period.

[JRP1994]

Oh yeah, Florida could be the tipping point vs Walker. Jeb isn't terribly strong in Colorado either though. If Hillary wins PA, FL she wins the election period.

Loses 272-266

[JRP1994]

Oh yeah, Florida could be the tipping point vs Walker. Jeb isn't terribly strong in Colorado either though. If Hillary wins PA, FL she wins the election period.

Loses 272-266 to Kasich/Paul