When do you plan on endorsing Hillary Clinton for President?

[Boris]

Eh, the Atlas Forum's most brilliant prognosticators were predicting a Hillary victory about a week prior to Iowa:

besides, hillary clinton will be beating barack obama like he's back on the plantation by the time my primary arrives.

[King]

A more important thing to note is that Hillary did not lose the nomination.  She didn't run a joke campaign and take a non-threat seriously enough.  Obama just beat her.  It would be a lot different if she lost to a joke like John Edwards.

Who can seriously mount an effort like that against her?

[they don't love you like i love you]

I distinctly remember Lewis Trondheim predicting in 2005 or 2006 that John McCain would win the Republican nomination and whoever ended up being the Not Hillary candidate would win the Democratic nomination. Wish I could find that post easily.

[politicallefty]

A more important thing to note is that Hillary did not lose the nomination.  She didn't run a joke campaign and take a non-threat seriously enough.  Obama just beat her.  It would be a lot different if she lost to a joke like John Edwards.

I'm not one that likes to rehash the past too much, but I'm in general agreement with you. However, I think the fatal mistake from Hillary's campaign that Obama's campaign capitalized upon was her failure to contest most of the caucus states. I remember Hillary getting destroyed in the caucus states, thus in the delegate count. If the margins in the caucus states weren't so lopsided or even mirrored most primary results, this would be her seventh year as POTUS.

Ultimately, yes, I do think it was more Obama's victory than Hillary's loss. Hillary's campaign was actually amazingly strong after numerous losses. On the defensive as the underdog, she was awesome. While losing caucuses, she was winning the much higher turnout primaries. Unfortunately for her, the delegates weren't apportioned according to turnout. If she runs, I hope she can channel that underdog spirit without actually being the underdog. If she can, I have no doubt she will be our next President.

[King]

A testament to how strong of a campaign Hillary ran is that she actually won the final contest in South Dakota, even as it was clear Obama had won overall, creating a weird red in a sea of green on the final map:



Of course, people also forget Obama was already the favorite in New Hampshire before he upset her in Iowa and she managed in one week to engineer a campaign to beat him in NH.

AND she beat him in Massachusetts and California, two states where a from the left challenger would have to win.

[politicallefty]

A testament to how strong of a campaign Hillary ran is that she actually won the final contest in South Dakota, even as it was clear Obama had won overall, creating a weird red in a sea of green on the final map:



Of course, people also forget Obama was already the favorite in New Hampshire before he upset her in Iowa and she managed in one week to engineer a campaign to beat him in NH.

I forget the particulars of that campaign, but wasn't South Dakota a primary in a sea of caucus states? (In order words, taking a point from my previous post, Hillary would have been the Democratic nominee if every state had a primary instead of a caucus.)

[Free Bird]

It's so cute that some of you think she'll win the Presidency.

Hilldawg’s strength is overrated, but honestly who’s going to beat her.  Scott Walker?  Adorable

Who'll beat her? Some no name freshman senator? Adorable

I think you mean the guy who gave the 2004 DNC keynote address and was widely speculated as a future presidential contender from that moment on. The myth that Obama was a nobody who emerged out of obscurity is quite pervasive it seems.

BUT. Everyone, even with Obama in, expected Shillary to be the nominee in 2008.

Can you explain this little portmanteau to me Hawk? It looks like you're combining "shrill" and "Hillary," the former historically being a sexist pejorative used against women.

On your actual point: Hillary was never 100% expected to be the nominee in 2008. For most of 2007, Obama was outraising her and iirc she never went above 50% on Intrade.

I was going more for "shill"

[7,052,770]

Regardless of what you feel about her probability of winning the general is, we can all agree that her probability is noticeably higher than any other potential Democratic candidate's is.

Thus, she gets my automatic endorsement. If anything changes to make me think that Biden or another Democrat would have a better shot in the general election, I will revoke the endorsement and give it to that candidate.

(Normal?)

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Never in a million years.  I will probably puke my guts out after she wins.

[Tender Branson]

Who, on 02/07/2007, seriously thought Obama was going to win?

Me ?

Barry Hussein "Burning Spear" Obama

I actually started supporting him back in 2006 and thought he had a good enough chance to win the primaries (when I registered here, I briefly supported Mark Warner - but later changed to a more liberal candidate because first I thought that only a more moderate Dem could win the general in 2008, but then the Dems won the Mid-Terms quite easily and it was obvious that the Dems could also win with a liberal candidate in 2008).

[King]

I will probably puke my guts out after she wins.

Endorsed.

[Tender Branson]

Of course, people also forget Obama was already the favorite in New Hampshire before he upset her in Iowa and she managed in one week to engineer a campaign to beat him in NH.

Yes, by playing cry-baby ...

[IceSpear]

Who, on 02/07/2007, seriously thought Obama was going to win?

Me ?

Barry Hussein "Burning Spear" Obama

I actually started supporting him back in 2006 and thought he had a good enough chance to win the primaries (when I registered here, I briefly supported Mark Warner - but later changed to a more liberal candidate because first I thought that only a more moderate Dem could win the general in 2008, but then the Dems won the Mid-Terms quite easily and it was obvious that the Dems could also win with a liberal candidate in 2008).

Well to be fair, that poll says "who do you support?", not "who do you think will win?"

But LOL at Hillary having 0 votes in that poll. Even Sharpton, Clark, Kucinich, etc. had at least 1 vote. This just proves that the people who constantly bitch about "the Hillary hack infestation" are just nostalgic for the days when Hillary supporters were nonexistent on Atlas rather than merely a significant minority.

[IceSpear]

Of course, people also forget Obama was already the favorite in New Hampshire before he upset her in Iowa and she managed in one week to engineer a campaign to beat him in NH.

Yes, by playing cry-baby ...

Yeah, as we all know, the only way women can ever accomplish anything is by playing the sympathy card and crying.

And by the way, even if that was true, all she'd have to do to recover from danger (hypothetical of course, since she's already the nominee) is to cry again.

[Lief 🗽]

I'm pretty sure there were literally only like 3 Clinton supporters on Atlas in 2008. Most people were Obama supporters, but there was a strong Edwards contingent (including yours truly). And then of course the Chris Dodd banner was waived proudly by Walter Mitty.

[Mr. Smith]

Of course, people also forget Obama was already the favorite in New Hampshire before he upset her in Iowa and she managed in one week to engineer a campaign to beat him in NH.

Yes, by playing cry-baby ...

Yeah, as we all know, the only way women can ever accomplish anything is by playing the sympathy card and crying.

And by the way, even if that was true, all she'd have to do to recover from danger (hypothetical of course, since she's already the nominee) is to cry again.

So it works for Hillary, but heaven help Ed Muskie for doing the same thing.

[LeBron]

I'll support/endorse Hillary if Biden opts out of a run. Otherwise, if a Clinton vs. Biden match-up does happen, while I like them both, I would have to back Biden.

Sorry Icey.

[Mr. Morden]

Who, on 02/07/2007, seriously thought Obama was going to win?

While I don't think Tweed did this poll in February 2007, he did have "Who do you believe will win the Democratic nomination?" polls in both November 2006 and March 2007:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=48770.5

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=54410.20

Obama got over 20% in both cases, and Clinton got under 50% in both cases.

Some Obama predictions from that era:

Obama will win. Clinton scares too many people and none of the other candidates are very exciting.

I think Hillary will be the front-runner at first, but will eventually be overtaken by Obama, who'll get the nomination.

I think it will be Obama

Obama will win the nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

In any case, there's a hierarchy of competitiveness in presidential primary contests.  E.g…..

GOP 2016 = extremely wide open, not even much agreement on who the frontrunner is
Dems 2008 = a clear frontrunner, but a relatively weak one…she had some obvious vulnerabilities
Dems 2000 & GOP 2000 = a pretty dominant frontrunner in each case; both Bush and Gore *could* have lost their nominations, but it would have taken the perfect storm
Dems 2016 = as dominant a non-incumbent frontrunner as we've seen in the modern era; enough so that all "establishment friendly" rivals look set to bow out, leaving only people on the fringes of the party, like Sanders and Webb as her token opposition

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

The Dem 2016 primary is a more extreme version of the Dem 2000 primary: a clear frontrunner years out, who receives mild or less opposition.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever

[King]

It's been two months. Bump

[Sumner 1868]

She will not receive my endorsement.

[Deus Naturae]

When I'm required to by law, so probably 2020 or 2024.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I wont I don't think.  I still remember the night Obama accepted the nomination back in June of 2008.  The roar of the crowd and the hope everyone had.  Now everyone is mad, sad, or apathetic again.  Same as it ever was.