FL/PA/OH-Quinnipiac: Bush leads in FL and PA while Kasich leads in OH

[Mr. Morden]

Quinnpiac polls of FL, PA, and OH:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2131

Florida

Dems

Clinton 61%
Biden 11%
Warren 9%
Sanders 2%
O'Malley 1%
Webb 1%

GOP

Bush 32%
Rubio 15%
Huckabee 11%
Walker 9%
Carson 8%
Cruz 4%
Christie 3%
Jindal 3%
Paul 3%
Santorum 3%
Perry 1%
Kasich 0%

Ohio

Dems

Clinton 51%
Warren 14%
Biden 7%
Sanders 5%
O'Malley 1%
Webb 0%

GOP

Kasich 14%
Walker 11%
Bush 10%
Paul 10%
Carson 8%
Huckabee 7%
Christie 6%
Cruz 6%
Rubio 4%
Jindal 1%
Perry 1%
Santorum 1%

Pennsylvania

Dems

Clinton 54%
Warren 12%
Biden 10%
O'Malley 2%
Sanders 2%
Webb 1%

GOP

Bush 12%
Christie 11%
Huckabee 10%
Carson 8%
Santorum 8%
Cruz 6%
Walker 6%
Rubio 4%
Kasich 3%
Paul 3%
Jindal 2%
Perry 1%

[Mr. Morden]

The numbers I quote above are those given in the case where you take Romney out of the race and we reallocate his voters to their second choices.  But they did the same poll question with Romney included, and he got 9% in Florida (4th place), 15% in Ohio (leading over Kasich, who got 11%), and 12% in Pennsylvania (leading over Bush and Christie, who are at 10% each).

[IceSpear]

Why is Kasich so low in OH? I'm guessing the base has problems with him?

[IceSpear]

They also did matchups without Hillary.

FL:
Biden 39
Warren 22
Sanders 3
O'Malley 2
Webb 2

OH:
Biden 28
Warren 24
Sanders 7
O'Malley 2
Webb 2

PA:
Biden 34
Warren 21
O'Malley 5
Webb 4
Sanders 3

And of course, more evidence of #DemshateHillary and #2008redux:

[Mr. Morden]

In Florida, Bush's lead is of course large enough that he leads with every demographic group.  In the other two states:

Ohio

Who leads among...?

Tea Party: Walker
white born again Evangelical: Walker
very conservative: Paul
somewhat conservative: Bush
moderate: Kasich
men: Kasich
women: Walker

Pennsylvania

Who leads among...?

Tea Party: Carson
white born again Evangelical: Huckabee
very conservative: Huckabee
somewhat conservative: Bush/Santorum tie
moderate: Christie
men: Bush
women: Huckabee

[retromike22]

Is there an OH result without Kasich?

[Phony Moderate]

They also did matchups without Hillary.

FL:
Biden 39
Warren 22
Sanders 3
O'Malley 2
Webb 2

OH:
Biden 28
Warren 24
Sanders 7
O'Malley 2
Webb 2

PA:
Biden 34
Warren 21
O'Malley 5
Webb 4
Sanders 3

And of course, more evidence of #DemshateHillary and #2008redux:

Fwiw, Hillary was at 80/10 with Dems nationally in May 2007. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=1055