Europeans warn Washington: arming Kiev will backfire

[All Along The Watchtower]

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/06/us-ukraine-crisis-germany-minister-idUSKBN0LA1S420150206

[politicus]

Europeans is overly broad - Germans, Brits and French, so Western European EU countries. There is a sharp East/West divide on this and no consensus within the EU.

[ag]

Munich Security Conference

God, not again!

[ZuWo]

As if the current approach didn't backfire.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Europeans, being shortsighted cowards since 1938.

[MaxQue]

Wrong title. Should read "Merkel is afraid for German investments (Siemens...) in Russia".

[Illuminati Blood Drinker]

Europeans, being shortsighted cowards since 1938.

[H. Ross Peron]

Europeans, being shortsighted cowards since 1938.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Merkel is half-right here.  Arming Kiev will not give the Ukrainians the victory, but what she neglects is that not arming Kiev will give Putin the victory.

[Famous Mortimer]

There's really no good solution here.

I think the least worst thing to do would be to call Putin's bluff. Call for a full Russian pull out and ask for a UN team to monitor new elections, up to Western standards, on whether or not to break up Ukraine. Promise to respect the results as long as the elections are free and fair.

[Cory]

There's really no good solution here.

I think the least worst thing to do would be to call Putin's bluff. Call for a full Russian pull out and ask for a UN team to monitor new elections, up to Western standards, on whether or not to break up Ukraine. Promise to respect the results as long as the elections are free and fair.

But "there are no Russian soldiers in the Ukraine", remember?

[Beezer]

I love the whole "Europeans are cowards" comments coming from people sitting behind their computers. I am personally no fan of Merkel but I think most people can recognize that Ukraine won't win this militarily. Their own army already has huge problems containing a bunch of ragtag Seps and Russian nationalists. If they do get their hands on western weaponry, Russia may just drop the pretense of standing on the sidelines and send in actual troops like they did in Crimea. Before you know it, Kharkiv, Mariupol, heck even Odessa, could then fall.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I love the whole "Europeans are cowards" comments coming from people sitting behind their computers. I am personally no fan of Merkel but I think most people can recognize that Ukraine won't win this militarily. Their own army already has huge problems containing a bunch of ragtag Seps and Russian nationalists. If they do get their hands on western weaponry, Russia may just drop the pretense of standing on the sidelines and send in actual troops like they did in Crimea. Before you know it, Kharkiv, Mariupol, heck even Odessa, could then fall.

The Russians already have troops in eastern Ukraine. What's the point of taking so much precautions not to piss off Russia when Russia is already invading a foreign country?!?

[Beezer]

The # of Russian soldiers appears to be rather minimal though. Any sort of escalation could lead to a "true" intervention with thousands of Russian soldiers going in. I am not supporting Putin's strategy at all of course. He has chosen this course of action nonetheless and we need to find a way to resolve the crisis. And as I stated, I don't think you can bring about an end to the conflict with weapons because Ukraine will be annihilated if a full scale war were to break out between the two parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course isn't part of the problem right now Poroshenko's recent (idiotic) offensive, which I gather has not exactly gone entirely to plan?

[Frodo]

The # of Russian soldiers appears to be rather minimal though. Any sort of escalation could lead to a "true" intervention with thousands of Russian soldiers going in. I am not supporting Putin's strategy at all of course. He has chosen this course of action nonetheless and we need to find a way to resolve the crisis. And as I stated, I don't think you can bring about an end to the conflict with weapons because Ukraine will be annihilated if a full scale war were to break out between the two parties.

To the contrary -the more Russian soldiers that come back home in body bags (or permanently maimed), the less likely Putin will be able to maintain support for this war on the home front as more bereaved Russian families question the wisdom of this conflict.  From the start, this has never been a war of national survival for Russia as it obviously is for Ukraine.   

[Beezer]

I think Putin can continue to play the card that he is rallying to the aid of fellow Russians and that this is a price worth paying. Again, there is no way Ukraine can win this conflict militarily and even with some American hardware they are not going to cause - in my opinion - enough casualties on the Russian side to bring about some sort of surrender. This will continue to be a stalemate w/o negotiations and adding new weaponry to the mix increases the chances of more bloodshed and little else.

[Beet]

Of course isn't part of the problem right now Poroshenko's recent (idiotic) offensive, which I gather has not exactly gone entirely to plan?

What offensive? According to all I've seen, the Ukrainians have been on the defensive since mid-January. And even then, they only engaged in tactical counterattacks. Poroshenko has long since ruled out trying to regain their lost territory by force.

[Frodo]

I think Putin can continue to play the card that he is rallying to the aid of fellow Russians and that this is a price worth paying.

I'd like to see if he can maintain public support after ten years of frustrating guerrilla warfare.  Putin wanted this war -he should be made to feel the full cost of it (and not just economically) in a way he never had to previously.  The greater the cost (especially in Russian blood), the greater the deterrent the next time he casts his eyes on another country to dominate.  

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There was no way the North Vietnamese or the Afghan mujahedeen could win their conflicts either.  Not without outside support.  

[ingemann]

The problem with that is the Chechen Wars, where Russia have shown their willingness to take those losses.

[Frodo]

The problem with that is the Chechen Wars, where Russia have shown their willingness to take those losses.

Right, the only difference being Ukraine is already an independent, sovereign nation.   

[ingemann]

The problem with that is the Chechen Wars, where Russia have shown their willingness to take those losses.

Right, the only difference being Ukraine is already an independent, sovereign nation.   

...and that Russia less likely to just take the losses? Putin are selling this as a defence of the homeland and the Russian people (including "Russians" in Ukraine).

[Frodo]

The problem with that is the Chechen Wars, where Russia have shown their willingness to take those losses.

Right, the only difference being Ukraine is already an independent, sovereign nation.    

...and that Russia less likely to just take the losses? Putin are selling this as a defence of the homeland and the Russian people (including "Russians" in Ukraine).

Russia will be less likely to take those losses over time if they see Europe and the United States remain united against them in defense of Ukraine.  

[ingemann]

The problem with that is the Chechen Wars, where Russia have shown their willingness to take those losses.

Right, the only difference being Ukraine is already an independent, sovereign nation.    

...and that Russia less likely to just take the losses? Putin are selling this as a defence of the homeland and the Russian people (including "Russians" in Ukraine).

Russia will be less likely to take those losses over time if they see Europe and the United States remain united against them in defense of Ukraine.  

Okay the bombers fly at dawn.

[ingemann]

Europeans, being shortsighted cowards since 1938.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

This.

What some of you don't understand is that if we don't stand up to Putin in Ukraine, there is no telling when he will stop.  As much grief as the domino theory has received since Vietnam, it does hold weight here -Putin has a record now. 

You people's problem are that you're so used to USA/the West being able to strong arm weaker countries, that you (as plural, not you specific as a person) in all your bloated rhetoric about Putin being Hitler you forget one little thing. Russia is still very much a great power and it's one with a very big army and a nuclear arsenal big enough to depopulate the Earth.

This is not Iran, Syria or a third world country, this is the remnant of USSR, which while no equal to USA, are not somebody you wish to start a warm war with and very much not a country where a regime change can be forced on them.

It's in everybody's interest that this stay as much a proxy war as possible, and while arming the Ukrainians may be necessary, it's not something, we wish to yell out for all the world to hear.