Could Clinton toy with the GOP primary?

[Likely Voter]

Team Clinton is more focused on the general than the dem primary and they have time and money, so why not try and mess with the GOP primary. They could covertly feed damaging oppo research to the media on candidate(s) they fear in the general. They could even get some shadow 3rd party group to run ads against candidates they don't want to face.

We have seen this kind of thing before, notably how Claire McCaskill helped Todd Akin win his primary (and we all know how that worked out for her)

Do people think Team Clinton will do it? And if so how and who will they go after/who do they want to help?

[bedstuy]

Yeah, just like she "toyed" with Vince Foster.

[Mr. Smith]

Too Nixonian.

[136or142]

She may try to run up her score in the Republican Primary in New Hampshire.

[NewYorkExpress]

That would fall under the category of "be careful what you wish for".

[Intell]

Horrible Idea, Clinton should focus on the Democratic Primaries now, not  the general election, let alone the Republican Primaries.

[Mr. Morden]

"Operation Chaos" in reverse:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=75520.msg1550833#msg1550833

[Mister Mets]

It's easier with smaller elections that don't have a lot of scrutiny.

A national primary is many elections with a lot of scrutiny.

It could also be damaging if it were to leak that the Clintons are helping a far-righter.

[Landslide Lyndon]

If Clinton carries Iowa and NH then obviously the Dem primary is over.
After that, I'm pretty sure that Democratic voters and groups will try to cause mischief in the Republican primary even if Hillary actively tried to dissuade them.

[CountryClassSF]

I'd say no, because the Republican establishment (largely pro-Akin, whether you want to believe it or not) sat quiet as McCaskil played that dirty game. They would not this time.

[Blair]

I hope you're not suggesting the Clinton family would engage in dirty tricks.

Plus you don't need to do anything to let the republicans elect a right wing bible bashing fanatic

[136or142]

If Clinton carries Iowa and NH then obviously the Dem primary is over.
After that, I'm pretty sure that Democratic voters and groups will try to cause mischief in the Republican primary even if Hillary actively tried to dissuade them.

In most states, wouldn't  Democratic party supporters had to have reregistered as a Republican long before the New Hampshire primary in order to vote in the Republican presidential primary?

[Likely Voter]

I wasn't really talking about the 'operation chaos' type of getting Dems to vote in the GOP primary, this is simply Hillary going after whoever she sees as her biggest threat in the general during the GOP primary. THis has been done before via advertising, not just McCaskill and Akin, but in CA Grey Davis ran ads against Richard Riordan in 2002 to help the more conservative nominee
http://content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,216170,00.html

These days with outside dark money groups it could even be done without her campaign's fingerprints. The Koch Bros are probably going to spend a ton going after Hillary and they aren't going to wait until the General Election started, just like they didn't wait in 2012 to go after Obama. Why should Hillary wait in 2016? At worst she could just drive up the negatives on the nominee, and at best she can knock off a stronger opponent.

And then there is the even more covert way of leaking oppo research to the media. That kind of thing happens all the time.  Her team will have large amounts of stuff on all the possible GOPers by the fall, if they don't already. Why not feed bad stories to the NYT or WaPo if it will hurt who they see as the strongest GE guy.

[Mr. Morden]

If Clinton carries Iowa and NH then obviously the Dem primary is over.
After that, I'm pretty sure that Democratic voters and groups will try to cause mischief in the Republican primary even if Hillary actively tried to dissuade them.

In most states, wouldn't  Democratic party supporters had to have reregistered as a Republican long before the New Hampshire primary in order to vote in the Republican presidential primary?

I don't think there are many states in which this would be the case, no.  Sure, there are some states like that, but I don't think it's that many.  There are quite a number of states that don't even have party registration.

As I alluded to in my earlier post, there was "Operation Chaos" in 2008, where, after Obama had a decent lead in the delegate count, but before Clinton had conceded the nomination to him, Rush Limbaugh was urging his listeners to vote for Clinton in the primaries, in order to drag out the Democratic nomination process.  There is in fact some evidence in the voting patterns of the later primaries that there was an excess of Republicans crossing over to vote for Clinton, and at least some of the exit poll info suggested that these were people who might stick with McCain in the general election.  Unclear if many of these folks were actually responding to Limbaugh though, or if they were just acting on their own:

I don't know.  I do think there are Republicans who are "mischief making" in the Democratic primary, who wouldn't have been doing so back when the GOP primary was competitive.  We discussed this back during the MS primary, when there was exit poll data like this.

A post of mine from 2008:



And this:

http://news.nationaljournal.com/articles/mysterypollster/2008/031208.htm

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The bolded one is hilarious.  They're voting for Clinton, but they would be dissatisfied if she's the nominee?

[Landslide Lyndon]

The only state in 2008 where Operation Chaos made a difference is Indiana, where mischief-making Republicans almost certainly gave Clinton her slim winning margin.

[Türkisblau]

I hope you're not suggesting the Clinton family would engage in dirty tricks.

Plus you don't need to do anything to let the republicans elect a right wing bible bashing fanatic

If anyone is going to elect a bible bashing fanatic, it's the democrats.

I think the word you're looking for is "thumping".

[Blair]

I hope you're not suggesting the Clinton family would engage in dirty tricks.

Plus you don't need to do anything to let the republicans elect a right wing bible bashing fanatic

If anyone is going to elect a bible bashing fanatic, it's the democrats.

I think the word you're looking for is "thumping".

Not really,

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Türkisblau]

I hope you're not suggesting the Clinton family would engage in dirty tricks.

Plus you don't need to do anything to let the republicans elect a right wing bible bashing fanatic

If anyone is going to elect a bible bashing fanatic, it's the democrats.

I think the word you're looking for is "thumping".

Not really,

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Huh, I've actually never heard that one before. Thanks!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She wants to run against Christie and should Walker come out of Iowa, she will do everything possible for Christie to win NH.

[bobloblaw]

Too Nixonian.

Well, then she'll do it.


Yeah, she might. But more likely Jeb Bush is counting on Hillary to have no competition in the Dem primary, thus creating more voters for the GOP primary and votes for him.

[bobloblaw]

Team Clinton is more focused on the general than the dem primary and they have time and money, so why not try and mess with the GOP primary. They could covertly feed damaging oppo research to the media on candidate(s) they fear in the general. They could even get some shadow 3rd party group to run ads against candidates they don't want to face.

We have seen this kind of thing before, notably how Claire McCaskill helped Todd Akin win his primary (and we all know how that worked out for her)

Do people think Team Clinton will do it? And if so how and who will they go after/who do they want to help?

The Claire McCaskill trick worked once. I didnt work in 2014. It was tried and failed badly.

[bobloblaw]

She wants to run against Christie and should Walker come out of Iowa, she will do everything possible for Christie to win NH.

She need s to concentrate on NH herself. NH is the place where a Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren would score an upset.

[The_Doctor]

Problem with the tactic: like the GOP swapping polls on twitter, it can only be done once before the national parties ramp up to prevent a repeat.

[Badger]

If Clinton carries Iowa and NH then obviously the Dem primary is over.
After that, I'm pretty sure that Democratic voters and groups will try to cause mischief in the Republican primary even if Hillary actively tried to dissuade them.

This. Though because Team Hillary fully understands the potential risks of backlash, such interference will be limited and (at least attempted) behind the scenes, like getting a friendly columnist to write an op-ed how Hillary's preferred opponent is 'underrated' or the like.

Anyone with visions of the Clinton campaign steering millions to Cruz's PAC are dreaming.

[Mister Mets]

Team Clinton is more focused on the general than the dem primary and they have time and money, so why not try and mess with the GOP primary. They could covertly feed damaging oppo research to the media on candidate(s) they fear in the general. They could even get some shadow 3rd party group to run ads against candidates they don't want to face.

We have seen this kind of thing before, notably how Claire McCaskill helped Todd Akin win his primary (and we all know how that worked out for her)

Do people think Team Clinton will do it? And if so how and who will they go after/who do they want to help?

The Claire McCaskill trick worked once. I didnt work in 2014. It was tried and failed badly.

The McCaskill trick was a repeat of something that worked for Harry Reid, when Republicans nominated Sharron Angle over blander opponents.

But it is hard to pull off, especially in a presidential cycle.

Operation Chaos sorta worked because there was a clear rationale for conservatives to vote in Democratic primaries. The point was to prolong the primary, rather than to change the inevitable winner.