Canadian provincial leadership elections 2015

[RogueBeaver]

Drainville drops out, endorses PKP. Cloutier will be left to pick up the pieces.

[RogueBeaver]

PCPO: Elliott doesn't seem terribly optimistic. So who will surrender their seat to Brown if he wins?

[Hatman 🍁]

Can a blue tell me how Brown is winning? This doesn't make any sense. I know he's got key endorsements, but how did it all happen? He's a backbencher with no name recognition. Elliott is the widow of a beloved Finance Minister. Do the Tories want to lose another election? I don't think another slick middle aged white guy (a playboy no less) is going to woo over centrist voters.

[DC Al Fine]

Can a blue tell me how Brown is winning? This doesn't make any sense. I know he's got key endorsements, but how did it all happen? He's a backbencher with no name recognition. Elliott is the widow of a beloved Finance Minister. Do the Tories want to lose another election? I don't think another slick middle aged white guy (a playboy no less) is going to woo over centrist voters.

a) Flaherty/Elliott were/are socially liberal red Tories, so Elliott was going to be a non-starter with a large minority of the party.

b)From what I'm hearing from my Ontario relatives, Elliott took a coronation for granted and Brown just out organized her. It's about selling memberships, not convincing the members as of when Hudak resigned.

Finally, I have to point out that "move to the middle to win" is just as much a fallacy as "only true _____'s win"

[Hatman 🍁]

You have to move to the middle to win Ontario. Especially after the Mike Harris years. It's not a fallacy, it's a fact. Hudak's extremism cost his party a sure thing, two elections in a row.

[RogueBeaver]

Seems to me like the party has deeper problems than platform, having lost 7/9 from both sides in 30 years. Also agreed with DC: best logistician wins.

[King of Kensington]

"Progressive" is such a vacuous term.

[adma]

a) Flaherty/Elliott were/are socially liberal red Tories, so Elliott was going to be a non-starter with a large minority of the party.

Actually, Flaherty was more the right-populist standard-bearer in his runs for the leadership vs Eves and Tory--it's only Elliott that's positioned herself as a "mainstream" Davis heir.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, iirc Flaherty was pro-life, or at least was when he ran for leader.

[DC Al Fine]

a) Flaherty/Elliott were/are socially liberal red Tories, so Elliott was going to be a non-starter with a large minority of the party.

Actually, Flaherty was more the right-populist standard-bearer in his runs for the leadership vs Eves and Tory--it's only Elliott that's positioned herself as a "mainstream" Davis heir.

I never heard that before. Interesting. Mea culpa.

[King of Kensington]

I take it both the Liberals and NDP would both rather have Patrick Brown leading the PCs.  That's obviously the case for the Liberals.  From an NDP point of view, I can see how having a more moderate PC leader would be better in terms of saying "the Liberals and Tories are exactly the same"; on the other hand, having a less mainstream PC leader could help the ONDP seem a more palatable alternative to the Liberals (Hudak's shift to the hard right certainly helped the uptick in the NDP vote in southwestern Ontario).  

[DL]

Its not clear to me whether from an NDP point of view, Elliott or Brown is better. On the one hand, Elliott is socially liberal and boring enough that it will be hard for the Liberals to make her into a devil incarnate like they did with Hudak...then again when the PCs had seemingly blah "red Tory" leaders like Ernie Eves and John Tory, the NDP also did really badly and the Liberals won big. The danger with Elliott is that she might be so inoffensive that she could win back some of the votes the PCs lost to the NDP last time. Then  again, i have heard that Elliott is lazy and boring and may just put everyone to sleep.

Brown is sometimes characterized as more rightwing, but the fact is he really hasnt come out with much policy at all and he mostly seems to just be an opportunist who will say anything to win. He has been a social conservative in the past - but I'll bet that if he becomes leader he will quickly "pink wash" himself.

[Linus Van Pelt]

a) Flaherty/Elliott were/are socially liberal red Tories, so Elliott was going to be a non-starter with a large minority of the party.

Actually, Flaherty was more the right-populist standard-bearer in his runs for the leadership vs Eves and Tory--it's only Elliott that's positioned herself as a "mainstream" Davis heir.

I never heard that before. Interesting. Mea culpa.

Also, Flaherty took socially conservative positions on abortion and gay marriage.

Flaherty was raised as a Catholic, and after marriage joined the Anglican church where Elliott went, but he seems to have retained the basic Catholic position on these issues.

[King of Kensington]

Cohn on Patrick Brown:

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/04/29/how-patrick-brown-could-be-ontarios-next-premier-cohn.html

[RogueBeaver]

PCPO: Here's today's TVO debate.

[King of Kensington]

Watched the debate.  So Patrick Brown thinks Hudak ran as "Liberal lite" last time? 

I learned during this debate that former MPP Joe Tascona is Brown's uncle.  Which means Brown would be the first person of Italian descent to lead a major political party in Ontario.

[RogueBeaver]

PQ: Snapshot of Ber... I mean PKP. This is gonna be so fun.

[Boston Bread]

ONPC results are coming in. Elliott's early lead has been lost. GTA seems to be putting Brown narrowly on top.

Edit: Brown is now winning a lot of seats outside the GTA. Seats in Ottawa, Northern Ontario, which I expected to go to Elliott. I think he's going to win.

[Hatman 🍁]

Brown has won

[King of Kensington]

Kathleen Wynne's preferred candidate.  

Where can I get the riding results?

[DL]

Kathleen Wynne's preferred candidate.  

Where can I get the riding results?

Sometimes you have to be careful about wishing for something - it might happen. People scoffed at Mike Harris as being unelectable...the jury is out on Brown, he could be a Stockwell Day style flop or he could catch fire. Christine Elliott would have been a female version of Jim Prentice or John Tory circa 2007 - inoffensive and dull and uninspiring...anyone who the Globe and Mail editors like you know will be a dud among real people!

[Hatman 🍁]

Kathleen Wynne's preferred candidate.  

Where can I get the riding results?

Can't find anything official, but most of the ridings are on Steve Paikin's twitter feed.

[Boston Bread]

Although in Brown's case, head to head polling with the Liberals actually shows him performing as much as 6 points worse than Elliott. One even shows Brown doing worse than Hudak (30%) although the Liberals have likely become less popular since that poll. All while the average Ontarian knows next to nothing about Elliott or Brown.

The next question is: who will resign their seat? Barrie is still held by the Liberals. Hoping the by-election will be as exciting as the Sudbury one was.

[136or142]

Although in Brown's case, head to head polling with the Liberals actually shows him performing as much as 6 points worse than Elliott. One even shows Brown doing worse than Hudak (30%) although the Liberals have likely become less popular since that poll. All while the average Ontarian knows next to nothing about Elliott or Brown.

The next question is: who will resign their seat? Barrie is still held by the Liberals. Hoping the by-election will be as exciting as the Sudbury one was.

At one time, Tim Hudack said he would resign his seat once a new leader was chosen.

[Krago]

Kathleen Wynne's preferred candidate.  

Where can I get the riding results?

Can't find anything official, but most of the ridings are on Steve Paikin's twitter feed.

Found them here: http://rabble.ca/comment/1502105#comment-1502105