Canadian provincial leadership elections 2015

[King of Kensington]

At one time, Tim Hudack said he would resign his seat once a new leader was chosen.

He said what Bay Street wanted to hear and should do very well in the private sector.

[Hatman 🍁]

Kathleen Wynne's preferred candidate.  

Where can I get the riding results?

Can't find anything official, but most of the ridings are on Steve Paikin's twitter feed.

Found them here: http://rabble.ca/comment/1502105#comment-1502105

Thanks, here is the map:

[Boston Bread]

I'll have to say, it's an impressive come from behind win. Albeit one that will hurt more than help the PC's.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some of the more "odd" Elliott wins are due to MPP endorsements (Prince Edward-Hastings, Parry Sound-Muskoka, Elgin-Middlesex-London, Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock, Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, Oxford, Nipissing & Leeds-Grenville). She did not win every riding where she got an endorsement from its MPP though.

[DC Al Fine]

I'll have to say, it's an impressive come from behind win. Albeit one that will hurt more than help the PC's.

I echo what DL said. Jeffery Simpson is not good at picking winners.

[Boston Bread]

Interesting that PCs in more conservative seats voted for the less conservative Elliott. Must be the MPP endorsements since no PC MPPs were elected in places like Toronto, Ottawa  and the North.

[RogueBeaver]

So who will surrender their seat? Hudak? Someone a bit closer to Barrie?

[Hatman 🍁]

So who will surrender their seat? Hudak? Someone a bit closer to Barrie?

Elliott herself would be a possibility. Not sure if her riding would like that idea though.

[Boston Bread]

Elliott surrendering her seat would risk a repeat of John Tory's 2009 run. Her personal popularity was the only thing that stopped the riding from falling in 2014, and Brown is evidently not the most popular there. One of the Simcoe seats would be the safest option since Brown could claim to have some connection with the people there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Brown was planning to run federally in Barrie-Innisfil, so York-Simcoe would make the most sense if he wants a local riding.

[DC Al Fine]

So who will surrender their seat? Hudak? Someone a bit closer to Barrie?

How many Tory MPP's have safe seats and have been around long enough to get a decent pension?There's your list. Hudak fits the bill. Ted Arnott is another.

Personally, I think he should just take Hudak's seat and run in Barrie in 2018.

[adma]

How many Tory MPP's have safe seats and have been around long enough to get a decent pension?There's your list. Hudak fits the bill. Ted Arnott is another.

Closer to Barrie, York-Simcoe's Julia Munro also counts--as does, for that matter, York-Simcoe's Jim Wilson, if his acting leadership presages retirement...

[RogueBeaver]

Brown will resign his seat Wednesday.

[lilTommy]

Brown as PC leader has benefited... the NDP

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/05/13/patrick-browns-leadership-win-boosts-ndp-numbers-poll-shows.html

NDP - 36% (+12!)
PC - 33% (-3)
OLP - 24% (-5)
Greens - 5% (-4)

BUT ... "Bozinoff extrapolated this week’s results to project that the Tories would win 49 seats in the 107-seat legislature, the NDP 40, and the Liberals 18." even though the next provincial election I believe will be using the new Federal 121 (likely keeping the North as is)

[Boston Bread]

OLP at 24%... that's the lowest I've seen for Liberals in Ontario. Worse than Ignatieff even!
I see Brown is giving his party a negative leader bump. It's worse than I thought.

[Hatman 🍁]

Brown as PC leader has benefited... the NDP

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/05/13/patrick-browns-leadership-win-boosts-ndp-numbers-poll-shows.html

NDP - 36% (+12!)
PC - 33% (-3)
OLP - 24% (-5)
Greens - 5% (-4)

BUT ... "Bozinoff extrapolated this week’s results to project that the Tories would win 49 seats in the 107-seat legislature, the NDP 40, and the Liberals 18." even though the next provincial election I believe will be using the new Federal 121 (likely keeping the North as is)

They're citing Brown being elected as helping the NDP, but it is most definitely the Alberta election influencing the polls. No one knows anything about Brown to have an opinion of him. He's not polarizing enough to boost the NDP 12 points.

[lilTommy]

Brown as PC leader has benefited... the NDP

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/05/13/patrick-browns-leadership-win-boosts-ndp-numbers-poll-shows.html

NDP - 36% (+12!)
PC - 33% (-3)
OLP - 24% (-5)
Greens - 5% (-4)

BUT ... "Bozinoff extrapolated this week’s results to project that the Tories would win 49 seats in the 107-seat legislature, the NDP 40, and the Liberals 18." even though the next provincial election I believe will be using the new Federal 121 (likely keeping the North as is)

They're citing Brown being elected as helping the NDP, but it is most definitely the Alberta election influencing the polls. No one knows anything about Brown to have an opinion of him. He's not polarizing enough to boost the NDP 12 points.

Also the budget I'd wager as well, the Privatization plan is not going over well, that has been the bulk of the media coverage and its been mostly all negative.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, the teacher's strike.

Look at the regional tabs. NDP leading in Eastern Ontario and the 905? But not Toronto or the Southwest?

[Hatman 🍁]

More evidence that this isn't a Patrick Brown effect: PC vote is steady, while Liberal vote is bleeding into the NDP.

[lilTommy]

More evidence that this isn't a Patrick Brown effect: PC vote is steady, while Liberal vote is bleeding into the NDP.

Me thinks TheStar is pushing an Anti-Brown agenda over the fact that this is really looking more like the Liberals bleeding to the NDP

[Boston Bread]

More evidence that this isn't a Patrick Brown effect: PC vote is steady, while Liberal vote is bleeding into the NDP.

Yes, but Brown is part of the reason why Liberals are bleeding NDP rather than to the PC. I think if Elliott won, then the PC's would look more appealing/less scary than the NDP to moderate Liberals.

It also seems to confirm our notion that Horwath's base is less socially liberal than Wynne's.

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There are a lot of don't knows but that is a non-insignificant number of Dippers who are creationists and anti-sex ed (although it might be just reflexively opposing whatever Wynne does).

[adma]

It also seems to confirm our notion that Horwath's base is less socially liberal than Wynne's.

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There are a lot of don't knows but that is a non-insignificant number of Dippers who are creationists and anti-sex ed (although it might be just reflexively opposing whatever Wynne does).

It probably has a bit to do with the heavy poor/multiethnic contingent anong the anti-sex-ed set (y'know, 9/10 of Thorncliffe Park students staying home, etc)

[Lief 🗽]

That's crazy that an election result in another province across the country would cause such a swing in Ontario. Canadian politics are really bizarre sometimes.

[136or142]

That's crazy that an election result in another province across the country would cause such a swing in Ontario. Canadian politics are really bizarre sometimes.

It's all the more unusual given that by the time of the Federal Election, if you were to ask people outside of Alberta which party held the provincial government there, I'd bet that most people would either say "no idea", "Conservative" or at best "I forget, but I believe the party that had been in power there for a long time was finally defeated."

[Boston Bread]

That's crazy that an election result in another province across the country would cause such a swing in Ontario. Canadian politics are really bizarre sometimes.

It's the bandwagon effect. FPTP punishes vote-splitting, so when one progressive party appears to rise, strategic progressive voters rush to that party.