Canadian provincial leadership elections 2015

[MaxQue]

Well, personally, I wouldn't be member of NDP in Manitoba. Can't be a member of a party with "union vote" or representation of anything else than members.

[136or142]

1.The Manitoba NDP managed to win 12 seats with just 23% of the vote in 1988.

2.Gary Doer won an almost equally narrow victory for the NDP leadership in 1988 although that was more of an urban/rural split.

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, personally, I wouldn't be member of NDP in Manitoba. Can't be a member of a party with "union vote" or representation of anything else than members.

So you wouldn't be a member of the NDP in Alberta? They had a one member, one vote convention, but union members were weighted up. I don't know if any other provincial parties are still doing this though.

The Manitoba NDP is definitely the most pro-establishment provincial NDP. I guess that's what happens when you've been in power for so long.

[DL]

1.The Manitoba NDP managed to win 12 seats with just 23% of the vote in 1988.

2.Gary Doer won an almost equally narrow victory for the NDP leadership in 1988 although that was more of an urban/rural split.

Thee is no comparison, Doer was running to become leader for the first time after Pawley quit...Selinger is the sitting premier who is HATED by 99% of the province who who was the choice of only 34% of his own party on the first ballot. He is literally Dead Man Walking

[Hatman 🍁]

Aren't leaders supposed to resign if they can't get 70% support in their party.  Clearly Selinger does not even have a majority (remember a plurality of Ashton delegates did not even vote in the 2nd round). Plus, Selinger's win did not even come from the constituency delegates, but likely from union support.

[DL]

Aren't leaders supposed to resign if they can't get 70% support in their party.  Clearly Selinger does not even have a majority (remember a plurality of Ashton delegates did not even vote in the 2nd round). Plus, Selinger's win did not even come from the constituency delegates, but likely from union support.

Well...no. First of all every party has its own internal rules. But in almost every case when parties have a "leadership review" the incumbent leader only needs 50+1 to keep their job. In practice many leaders have quit after getting votes of confidence at conventions that were above 50% but below some imaginary line in the 65% to 75% range that pundits have decided is what a leader REALLY needs. I believe John Tory got a very anemic vote in his favour from Ontario PCs after losing in 2007 and yet he stayed on as leader and only quit after losing a byelection. Ralph Klein tried to hang around after getting just 55% in an Alberta PC leadership review - but was convinced to quit.

The situation in Manitoba is quite unique in that the Premier/leader decided to run in an actual leadership contest after having had his leadership challenged. The only comparison i can think of is what happened to Joe Clark in 1983. Clark got only 67% vote of confidence and he totally arbitrarily decided that this was not enough and so he resigned and ran to succeed himself. In retrospect many people say that he should have just stayed on as leader since he only needed 50%+1 and he got 67%. Clark lost the leadership to Brian Mulroney on the final ballot 54% to 46% - but at the time it was generaly accepted that if Clark had won by even the slightest margin - a win would have been a win.

[Hatman 🍁]

Obviously it's 50% plus+1, but I was referring to that imaginary line. I assume if they had a leadership review, Selinger would not have even got to 50%, let alone 70%. 

[136or142]

Well, personally, I wouldn't be member of NDP in Manitoba. Can't be a member of a party with "union vote" or representation of anything else than members.

So you wouldn't be a member of the NDP in Alberta? They had a one member, one vote convention, but union members were weighted up. I don't know if any other provincial parties are still doing this though.

The Manitoba NDP is definitely the most pro-establishment provincial NDP. I guess that's what happens when you've been in power for so long.

My understanding is that the NDP in Manitoba went to a one member one vote some time after Gary Doer was elected leader in 1988 but that they went back to a delegated convention some time before he left in 2009.

[136or142]

1.The Manitoba NDP managed to win 12 seats with just 23% of the vote in 1988.

2.Gary Doer won an almost equally narrow victory for the NDP leadership in 1988 although that was more of an urban/rural split.

Thee is no comparison, Doer was running to become leader for the first time after Pawley quit...Selinger is the sitting premier who is HATED by 99% of the province who who was the choice of only 34% of his own party on the first ballot. He is literally Dead Man Walking

Prior to the 'gang of five' the Manitoba NDP had managed to get back to 30-32% of the vote and was only 10-15% behind the P.Cs (and more importantly tied in Winnipeg).  I doubt the NDP can win the next election, but I would hesitate to count out Selinger entirely.

[RogueBeaver]

First PQ official debate tonight: PKP under heavy fire on all issues.

[RogueBeaver]

McNaughton is despicable.

[MaxQue]

McNaughton is despicable.

Yet, PC doesn't condemn his moves.

[RogueBeaver]

Star profiles Brown.

[DL]

Star profiles Brown.

I don't know about you, but i read that very lengthy profile and i learned absolutely NOTHING about what Brown believes in or where he would take the province if he ever became Premier. Its all just superficial stuff about him as a personality and that he has a lot of drive and plays hockey - but seriously who cares? what does he actually stand for other than a beliefe that he should be premier?

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, that struck me too. In his interview with Ivison he said his priorities would be energy, infrastructure, deregulation. Or "making Ontario the easiest place in North America to invest and create jobs."

[MaxQue]

Yeah, that struck me too. In his interview with Ivison he said his priorities would be energy, infrastructure, deregulation. Or "making Ontario the easiest place in North America to invest and create jobs."

Oh, "deregulation". Hudak offered that to people last time and they clearly said no.

[RogueBeaver]

In the sense of clearing bureaucratic red tape, not privatization.

[RogueBeaver]

Brown gets a big $ bump.

[RogueBeaver]

PKP apes Parizeau, but avoids blaming money. Wished he'd save this for the campaign.

[DC Al Fine]

PKP apes Parizeau, but avoids blaming money. Wished he'd save this for the campaign.

Would love to see the PQ vanquished, if only to see Anglos occasionally vote for someone besides the PLQ

[RogueBeaver]

They did before the '30s. Rural Anglos voted Unionist in the Duplessis era, but they were 20% of the total.

[DC Al Fine]

They did before the '30s. Rural Anglos voted Unionist in the Duplessis era, but they were 20% of the total.

I was looking at old elections to see when the change occurred and noticed something odd. Jack Layton's grandfather was a Union Nationale MNA

[RogueBeaver]

Yep - Minister without Portfolio. Postwar, Duplessis' only Anglo minister was Jonathan Robinson, and he didn't handle the Anglo file - Sauvé did.

[RogueBeaver]

PQ: I completely agree with Hébert.

[RogueBeaver]

PCPO: 76,376 members. Brown ahead - he claims 40,414 - but Elliott insists he only leads in 20 ridings.