Clinton vs. Bush 2016 Map

[Devils30]

I think this is more realistic than many Republicans want to admit, people are tired of the Bush's.

Hillary Clinton 54%
Jeb Bush 45%

States:
PA: 56-43 Clinton
OH:53-46 Clinton
NH: 55-44 Clinton
IA: 53-46 Clinton
WI: 55-44 Clinton
MN: 56-43 Clinton
IN: 50-49 Bush
MO: 50-49 Clinton
VA: 55-44 Clinton
NC: 51-48 Clinton
FL: 51-48 Clinton
GA: 51-48 Bush
CO: 53-46 Clinton
NV: 56-43 Clinton
AZ: 50-49 Clinton

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

MO & AZ are not happening. NC is more of a possibility than people seem to think.

[Devils30]

MO and AZ can happen if she wins by 9 points. This scenario is basically if the white vote goes 57-42% Jeb but Hillary keeps a similar percentage of the Hispanic vote to Obama's. I figure against Jeb that white midwesterners will be Hillary's top target and she can do well with them. Hint: There are a few in Arizona too. Under this scenario MO and AZ can go D with like 4% Democratic trend, very possible with Obama being such a bad fit in MO and AZ's GOP white vote closed to maxed. 

[IceSpear]

Hillary wins by a bigger margin in the PV than Obama 2012, but falls slightly in the electoral college due to Jeb's home state advantage in Florida giving him a narrow win there. Third parties get a slightly higher percentage of the vote than they normally do due to "dynasty backlash".

Clinton/Kaine - 319, 51.3%
Bush/Ayotte - 219, 45.7%

Close states (within 5%):

Missouri - 0.3%
New Hampshire - 1.0%
Colorado - 1.1%
North Carolina - 1.3%
Florida - 2.3%
Iowa - 3.2%
Ohio - 4.5%
Indiana - 4.8%

[bobloblaw]

I do love this scenarios, because it would be a huge humiliation for Bush.
1) He'd do worse than Romney
2) He'd not only lose FL, but do worse in FL than Romney
3) He'd do no better with hispanics than Romney.


All three are my dream come true. It would be a giant repudiation of Jeb Bush and the GOPe. They richly deserve it. It would also be a repudiation of Boeher, who would lose his speakership in Jan 2017, even though the GOP would keep the House.

Basically this would be a result where Bush alienated the conservative base and failed to gain any moderates to offset the millions of conservatives sitting at home. This is in fact nearly a 100% likelihood.

Unfortunately, two problems I see with this.
1) Hillary is an awful candidate.
2) Not since 1904, has the party going or its third straight election Presidential victory received an increase in the popular vote pecentage. And in 1904, there was TR and McKinley's assassination. Kind of like a mini 1964.

Dont get me wrong, I love your scenario. As a hardcore conservative, I believe the conservative movement would be destroyed by Jebbie and would actually thrive under Clinton, who after a disasterous first term would essentially destroy the Clinton name and legacy associated with economic prosperity and fiscal prudence that Bill worked hard towards in the 1990s. She'd either not run again in 2020 at age 74 or face a crushing defeat by 2016 runner up Scott Walker.

[bobloblaw]

Hillary wins by a bigger margin in the PV than Obama 2012, but falls slightly in the electoral college due to Jeb's home state advantage in Florida giving him a narrow win there. Third parties get a slightly higher percentage of the vote than they normally do due to "dynasty backlash".

Clinton/Kaine - 319, 51.3%
Bush/Ayotte - 219, 45.7%

Close states (within 5%):

Missouri - 0.3%
New Hampshire - 1.0%
Colorado - 1.1%
North Carolina - 1.3%
Florida - 2.3%
Iowa - 3.2%
Ohio - 4.5%
Indiana - 4.8%

If she wins 51.3% of the national popular vote, she wont carry MO. Given the 2008 and 2012 results in MO relative to the national pv, you must think that MO is full of racist Dems. Maybe it is in St Louis County. Is that enough to move MO from R+7 to R+2 or 3?

[IceSpear]

Hillary wins by a bigger margin in the PV than Obama 2012, but falls slightly in the electoral college due to Jeb's home state advantage in Florida giving him a narrow win there. Third parties get a slightly higher percentage of the vote than they normally do due to "dynasty backlash".

Clinton/Kaine - 319, 51.3%
Bush/Ayotte - 219, 45.7%

Close states (within 5%):

Missouri - 0.3%
New Hampshire - 1.0%
Colorado - 1.1%
North Carolina - 1.3%
Florida - 2.3%
Iowa - 3.2%
Ohio - 4.5%
Indiana - 4.8%

If she wins 51.3% of the national popular vote, she wont carry MO. Given the 2008 and 2012 results in MO relative to the national pv, you must think that MO is full of racist Dems. Maybe it is in St Louis County. Is that enough to move MO from R+7 to R+2 or 3?

Well, she wins the popular vote by 5.6% here, so it would be more like R+5.

[bobloblaw]

Hillary wins by a bigger margin in the PV than Obama 2012, but falls slightly in the electoral college due to Jeb's home state advantage in Florida giving him a narrow win there. Third parties get a slightly higher percentage of the vote than they normally do due to "dynasty backlash".

Clinton/Kaine - 319, 51.3%
Bush/Ayotte - 219, 45.7%

Close states (within 5%):

Missouri - 0.3%
New Hampshire - 1.0%
Colorado - 1.1%
North Carolina - 1.3%
Florida - 2.3%
Iowa - 3.2%
Ohio - 4.5%
Indiana - 4.8%

If she wins 51.3% of the national popular vote, she wont carry MO. Given the 2008 and 2012 results in MO relative to the national pv, you must think that MO is full of racist Dems. Maybe it is in St Louis County. Is that enough to move MO from R+7 to R+2 or 3?

Well, she wins the popular vote by 5.6% here, so it would be more like R+5.

That isnt how PVI works. If MO was R+5, then Bush would be getting 50.7% of the vote(45.7% nationally). He'd win. R+ means how much above the national popular vote, the GOP candidate is getting, not the margin.

That's why FL is still an R+ plus state, despite Obama winning it in 2012. Romney got about 1-2% better in FL than nationally.

[Suburbia]

Clinton/Clark
Bush/Ayotte

[Mr. Illini]

People are tired of Bushes, but they are also tired of Democrats it would seem. Hillary wins with Obama's map, switching NC and FL.

Closest states:
Colorado 0.5%
North Carolina 1.4%
Florida 1.6%
New Hampshire 2.0%
Ohio 3.0%
Iowa 3.2%

[IceSpear]

Hillary wins by a bigger margin in the PV than Obama 2012, but falls slightly in the electoral college due to Jeb's home state advantage in Florida giving him a narrow win there. Third parties get a slightly higher percentage of the vote than they normally do due to "dynasty backlash".

Clinton/Kaine - 319, 51.3%
Bush/Ayotte - 219, 45.7%

Close states (within 5%):

Missouri - 0.3%
New Hampshire - 1.0%
Colorado - 1.1%
North Carolina - 1.3%
Florida - 2.3%
Iowa - 3.2%
Ohio - 4.5%
Indiana - 4.8%

If she wins 51.3% of the national popular vote, she wont carry MO. Given the 2008 and 2012 results in MO relative to the national pv, you must think that MO is full of racist Dems. Maybe it is in St Louis County. Is that enough to move MO from R+7 to R+2 or 3?

Well, she wins the popular vote by 5.6% here, so it would be more like R+5.

That isnt how PVI works. If MO was R+5, then Bush would be getting 50.7% of the vote(45.7% nationally). He'd win. R+ means how much above the national popular vote, the GOP candidate is getting, not the margin.

That's why FL is still an R+ plus state, despite Obama winning it in 2012. Romney got about 1-2% better in FL than nationally.

Oops, my mistake. But yeah, I do think Hillary may be able to move Missouri back to its pre-Obama PVI, or close to it at least. That is, assuming she actually tries to contest the state (which Obama did not in 2012). Bush is weak in the Midwest.

[bobloblaw]

Clinton/Clark
Bush/Ayotte

The Clinton's are done in AR. It is been over 20 years since they lived there. They NEVER EVER went back to visit when they were in the WH and only go back to campaign for candidates who ultimately lose by 20.

[Devils30]

Arkansas is not going to Hillary while New Hampshire goes to Bush

[pbrower2a]

Polls only from after the 2014 election. Only seven states, but some that can say much about the 2016 election should the polls hold as they are. 


Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Clinton and Bush are in a virtual tie in Florida and North Carolina -- but Clinton has a significant lead in Ohio. With what I have I see Clinton winning somewhere between how Obama won in 2008 and how Obama won in 2012.

New York and New Jersey show what I would expect in a Democratic win.

New Hampshire is not going to help the Republican as it did in 2000.

A Republican nominee can win without Pennsylvania, but the state has to be close to indicate that the Republican can win 50% of the popular and electoral vote.

Ohio is an absolute must-win for any Republican nominee. It could have been the difference for Gore in 2000 and for Kerry in 2004.  A Republican is not going to lose Ohio and win Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota. 

North Carolina was Barack Obama's weakest win in 2008; Florida was his weakest win in 2012. If either state is close in 2016, then the Democrat wins nationwide.   

Sure, there are other possible swing states than Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio; we will see polls for Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and Wisconsin -- maybe even Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri -- because there will be or can be hot Senate races.

Based on these seven states alone I can show you how a likely Bush victory looks at any stage:

Hillary Clinton vs. Jeb Bush

30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Florida is typically either close in a close election or has swung far away for the Democrat. That is how Florida has been in every election except 1964. North Carolina is no contest, and Ohio is only on the fringe of contest.  Hillary could be making desperate efforts to win the state -- and failing. Florida Republicans get to spend money on a Senate campaign instead of on the Presidency.

If North Carolina is out of contention, then Virginia is likely gone. If Ohio is on the fringe of contention, then Iowa and Wisconsin are iffy. This is at best (for Clinton) a Kerry 2004 scenario.

[Free Bird]

What everyone on the forum wants to happen

[Free Bird]

What is likely to happen

[IceSpear]

What is likely to happen

Jeb trails in Ohio by double digits in nearly every poll taken. He's routinely put up very weak numbers in the Midwest, so I don't really see how him winning it is "likely".

[Panda Express]

Hillary wins by a bigger margin in the PV than Obama 2012, but falls slightly in the electoral college due to Jeb's home state advantage in Florida giving him a narrow win there. Third parties get a slightly higher percentage of the vote than they normally do due to "dynasty backlash".

Clinton/Kaine - 319, 51.3%
Bush/Ayotte - 219, 45.7%

Close states (within 5%):

Missouri - 0.3%
New Hampshire - 1.0%
Colorado - 1.1%
North Carolina - 1.3%
Florida - 2.3%
Iowa - 3.2%
Ohio - 4.5%
Indiana - 4.8%

Hillary is bad in Colorado but so is Bush. Jeb did worse than Huckabee in the last Colorado poll against Clinton. She'd win Colorado before MO and NC at the very least.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

What is likely to happen

Bush wouldn't be "likely" to win VA.

[IceSpear]

Hillary wins by a bigger margin in the PV than Obama 2012, but falls slightly in the electoral college due to Jeb's home state advantage in Florida giving him a narrow win there. Third parties get a slightly higher percentage of the vote than they normally do due to "dynasty backlash".

Clinton/Kaine - 319, 51.3%
Bush/Ayotte - 219, 45.7%

Close states (within 5%):

Missouri - 0.3%
New Hampshire - 1.0%
Colorado - 1.1%
North Carolina - 1.3%
Florida - 2.3%
Iowa - 3.2%
Ohio - 4.5%
Indiana - 4.8%

Hillary is bad in Colorado but so is Bush. Jeb did worse than Huckabee in the last Colorado poll against Clinton. She'd win Colorado before MO and NC at the very least.

Ah, good point. I actually forgot that Jeb polls even worse than Hillary in CO.

[Mr. Morden]

I thought the last Colorado poll was this PPP poll from July of last year, which had Bush losing to Clinton by 1 point there:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/COMiscResults.pdf

That was *not* worse than Huckabee did, and in fact, it showed Bush not doing any worse than any of the other Republicans there except for Paul.

[IceSpear]

I thought the last Colorado poll was this PPP poll from July of last year, which had Bush losing to Clinton by 1 point there:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/COMiscResults.pdf

That was *not* worse than Huckabee did, and in fact, it showed Bush not doing any worse than any of the other Republicans there except for Paul.

Interestingly, for whatever reason, this one isn't listed on RCP. The last poll they show is a Quinnipiac one taken around the same time, which did in fact show Jeb performing the worst (and Rand performing extremely well).

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2060

[bobloblaw]

For some reason Hillary is much less popular in CO than Obama.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

For some reason Hillary is much less popular in CO than Obama.

She does poorly among the Latte/hipster demographics. They like catchy slogans but aren't interested in substance.

[Mr. Morden]

I thought the last Colorado poll was this PPP poll from July of last year, which had Bush losing to Clinton by 1 point there:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/COMiscResults.pdf

That was *not* worse than Huckabee did, and in fact, it showed Bush not doing any worse than any of the other Republicans there except for Paul.

Interestingly, for whatever reason, this one isn't listed on RCP. The last poll they show is a Quinnipiac one taken around the same time, which did in fact show Jeb performing the worst (and Rand performing extremely well).

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2060

Wikipedia > RCP

RCP is rather inconsistent about which polls they choose to include.