Last holdout counties

[Sol]

This is inspired by This Thread. In a massive wave statewide election, what would be the last holdout counties for each party?

NC
GOP: I'm thinking Mitchell? Though it could really also be Avery or Yadkin.
Dems: Probably either Durham or whatever county in the Northeast has the highest African-American population.

Maryland
GOP: Garrett
Dems: PG

[pikachu]

NJ
Dem: Essex
GOP: Sussex? Maybe Ocean or Hunterdon, but they don't strike me to be as conservative as Sussex.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Pennsylvania:

D: Philadelphia
R: Potter

[muon2]

In IL it's pretty clear from the 2014 election that the Dem holdout is Cook, since all other counties voted Rauner over Quinn. For the Pubs Durbin lost only 4 counties in 2008: Johnson, Edwards, Wayne and Woodford. In 2004, Obama lost 10 counties to Alan Keyes, including two on the 2008 list Edwards and Wayne. Keyes won 60-37 in Edwards and Durbin only got 41% there as his worst state. So I'll go with Edwards and Wayne a close second.

[Padfoot]

In Ohio the dem holdout is Athens.  GOP holdout would probably be Holmes or one of the central west counties on the Indiana border.

[SNJ1985]

Michigan:

Democratic: Wayne County
Republican: Ottawa County

[Kevin]

This is inspired by This Thread. In a massive wave statewide election, what would be the last holdout counties for each party?

NC
GOP: I'm thinking Mitchell? Though it could really also be Avery or Yadkin.
Dems: Probably either Durham or whatever county in the Northeast has the highest African-American population.

Maryland
GOP: Garrett
Dems: PG

Not the City of Baltimore for the Dems?

[IceSpear]

Pennsylvania:

D: Philadelphia
R: Potter

Why not Fulton?

[TJ in Oregon]

Ohio:
R: Mercer
D: Athens

Of the trio of uber safe R German religious group counties, Holmes, Mercer, and Putnam, Mercer is the one that best matches the current GOP along all axes of issues. Holmes could change some if the Amish don't vote and Putnam has more of a communitarian streak than Mercer that the Dems would probably have taken advantage of by the time they win the other 87 counties.

On the D side, the choice really comes down to Cuyahoga or Athens (unless you're willing to bet on a random darkhorse like Monroe) and Athens has been headed in the Dems direction more than Cuyahoga. Republicans just can't win liberal college towns. They can occasionally win liberal suburbanites and white union members under the right circumstances.

Wisconsin:
R: Washington
D: Dane

I know Menominee is more heavily D than Dane but it is more conceivably possible the GOP finds some way to appeal to Native Americans in a particular race than it is they win Dane County.

The Republican choice here is the most obvious of the four I picked.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Pennsylvania:

D: Philadelphia
R: Potter

Why not Fulton?

5 or so counties could stand in for Potter.

[Sol]

This is inspired by This Thread. In a massive wave statewide election, what would be the last holdout counties for each party?

NC
GOP: I'm thinking Mitchell? Though it could really also be Avery or Yadkin.
Dems: Probably either Durham or whatever county in the Northeast has the highest African-American population.

Maryland
GOP: Garrett
Dems: PG

Not the City of Baltimore for the Dems?

Obviously neither are really going to go for the GOP, but Baltimore has a few pubbie-ish neighbohoods and a slight bit of the white immigrant socon democrat thing going on, so those voters would probably swing more easily than PG's Black, Latin@, and college student population.

[The Free North]

Not really much diversity in Connecticut but I would say


Republican: Litchfield County
Democrat: Hartford County

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Essex for the Dems.
Sussex for the Pubs.

Not a difficult one. 

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Plymouth for the Republicans; that's easy. Democrats are more difficult to say but it would definitely be either Franklin, Berkshire, or one of the insular counties.

[Mr. Smith]

In California

For GOP: Modoc
For Dems: San Francisco

In Virginia

For GOP: Wythe?
For Dems: Alexandria IC

[The Free North]

In California

For GOP: Modoc
For Dems: San Francisco

In Virginia

For GOP: Wythe?
For Dems: Alexandria IC

Petersburg in VA? If I recall its like 90%+ black..

[ElectionsGuy]

Isn't this just the county with the largest margin most of the time? I think a more interesting proposition would be what margin would the opposing party have to win by to win that holdout county.

In Wisconsin, I would say Republicans have to win at least 71% statewide of the vote to win Dane County, and even then it would be a struggle. About the same for the Dems in Washington County.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

In California

For GOP: Modoc
For Dems: San Francisco

In Virginia

For GOP: Wythe?
For Dems: Alexandria IC

Petersburg in VA? If I recall its like 90%+ black..

It's like 80% black, and the Dems are competitive there with the whites in a way they aren't in the heavily black rural areas nearby. So yes, definitely Petersburg. If you want to stick technically with counties as opposed to independent cities it would probably be Charles City County (I'm guessing Arlington and Alexandria would swing more heavily against a LaRouchite or someone).

The last holdout for Republicans is in VA is Powhatan, esp. judging from the margins on the 2008 Senate map, though Augusta and Rockingham are contenders as they are the one part of the state that has been almost always a GOP stronghold since the 1940s. I'm betting those currently high GOP margin counties in the Southwest could still be won back in a landslide by the right Democrat.

Plymouth for the Republicans; that's easy. Democrats are more difficult to say but it would definitely be either Franklin, Berkshire, or one of the insular counties.

not Suffolk for the Dems?

[Linus Van Pelt]

For what it's worth, this actually did happen in Wisconsin in the 1994 governor's race, and the Dem holdout was Menominee. (This is not to deny, of course, that one can argue that the answer has changed since then.)

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

Not really much diversity in Connecticut but I would say


Republican: Litchfield County
Democrat: Hartford County

Fairfield County more so, they kept electing Christopher Shays even in a Democratic wave election like 2006.

[The Free North]

Not really much diversity in Connecticut but I would say


Republican: Litchfield County
Democrat: Hartford County

Fairfield County more so, they kept electing Christopher Shays even in a Democratic wave election like 2006.

That had more to do with Shays being relatively popular in the district, going strictly by PVI, Litchfield is the winner. Fairfield has the heavily democratic cities of Bridgeport and Stamford in it while Litchfield is entirely rural. It (Litchfield) was also the only county to vote for Bush 43 and against Obama.

[ilikeverin]

In Minnesota, based on previous elections, the D holdout actually seems to be St. Louis, not Ramsay as I had thought.  I wonder if that has changed of late.  The R holdouts are Pipestone and Rock, but Pipestone seems to consistently have a stronger margin.

[VPH]

In Kansas, it'd be Wyandotte county or Douglas county, depending on which type of Republican was running. If it was a libertarian type, Wyandotte. If a social con, Douglas.

[Kevinstat]

Maine:
D: Cumberland (and yes, it was carried by a Republican in the 2002 Governor's race which was won by the Democrats but I think under LePage it has become entrenched as the biggest Democratic stronghold).
R: a bit less certain, as non-Presidential elections in Maine can have their own patterns and different Democrats can have some appeal in different normally-Republican areas, but I'd say Piscataquis would definitely be the most likely last R holdout.  (Although went for the Democrat in the the 2002 Gubernatorial race when Cumberland County went for the Republican!)