What % chance would you give Hillary Clinton losing in the Iowa Caucus?

[Eraserhead]

As of now, I'm saying like 40%.

[IceSpear]

Hillary is currently leading her strongest possible challenger (who isn't going to run) by 45 points in Iowa. Considering her only competition is likely to be Sanders, Webb, and O'Malley, I'll give her a roughly ~3% chance of losing Iowa, which is still much higher than her 0% odds of losing the nomination. The only reason it's not a lock is because caucuses have an extra element of unpredictability that primaries do not.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

#warrenwillget100%

But seriously, like 25%. The 15% chance she doesn't even run, and the 10% chance that she runs but loses the iowa caucus.

[The Other Castro]

Losing requires that she runs, since you can't technically lose if you don't run. Given that, probably about 5% is generous to any probable challengers

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I'd say about 10% at this point, barring something unforeseen.

[Badger]

10-15%, probably closer to 10.

[pikachu]

5-10%, but even a decent performance by an opponent (say holding Hillary under 40%) would hurt Hillary's inevitability a lot. I don't really see that happening though.

[Lief 🗽]

1-2%.

[bobloblaw]

1-2%.

I gess that old hag will be everywhere you post.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

10%. She'll only face token opposition. Sanders and O'Malley won't play in Iowa, and Webb won't have the money or support he needs.

[Oak Hills]

0%, barring a major scandal.

[PresidentTRUMP]

25% give or take, still a year out, to put it any lower than that is a mistake IMO, as we get closer will get a better idea.

Still a year away, that's an eternity in politics.

[IceSpear]

25% give or take, still a year out, to put it any lower than that is a mistake IMO, as we get closer will get a better idea.

Still a year away, that's an eternity in politics.

11 months actually.

And 45 points can't be shrugged off with an "anything can happen in politics!" platitude. People rate Senate races which are actually further away as "safe D" or "safe R" (such as NY and OK in 2016), and their current leads are probably smaller than Hillary's.