Kennedy v Rockefeller 1964

[Gustaf]

Ben,

You make a map with one of the electoral calculators on this site, then you right-click somewhere near the map, I usually try between Alaska and mainland, go to propeties, copy the entire adress including all the nubmers and stuff and put them between img and /img in brackets. You can quote my post and look at how it looks.



And you're 9 EVs off, from what I can tell:

Kennedy: 398

Rockefeller: 123

Southern: 17

[Gustaf]

Ben,

Though your analyses seems sound on the whole, I thought the reason for JFK picking LBJ was to quell the Southern revolition against him? He was a Catholic, remember...

And you should try and post a map now, I know you got it in you.

[Gustaf]

Iowa was Republican territory in the 1960's.

 True but that said so was Kentucky when Clinton won it in 1996 or MA when Reagan won it in 1984 or even Kennedy when he won NJ which was solidly republican and is these days just as solidly democrat...

I think that as i have said Kennedy in 1964 would be a lot like Clinton in 1996 just with even more going for him than Clinton on defence and in terms of legislation passed... so while i don’t think that something along the lines of LBJ's win would happen JFK would have a solid win imho... that said I think even in such a situation where JFK was so very likely to win, states like MT, SD, ND, IA, OR, WA would have been close but with a larger urban population WA would probably have swung to JFK ditto MN (also strong Dem party there)... but overall a solid win for JFK in the popular vote over a well liked and respected GOP candidate (aka Dole) but just no real reason to change presidents at the time (in the end a similar sentiment will probably carry Bush to a slim win in Nov... but i didn’t say that...LOL)... in the electoral college its a near landslide but not quite...

Gustaf I think LBJ much like Cheney provided political credibility in the south, that said LBJ's style antagonised many democrats and while Kennedy was charming and likable LBJ was not, in 1960 LBJ reassured voters in the south and nationally however within the democratic party and particularly the southern part of the party he was disliked by 1964 for his apparent turn to the left on becoming president...so in 1964 i doubt there would have been as much distrust towards JFK as LBJ as JFK would probably have been more cautious on Civil Rights but that’s not the real issue, the real issue is the dixiecrat and republican vote would never have been combined in the south without Goldwater to deliver wins across the deep south and states like GA, LA and SC would have been much closer and probably gone to JFK while a states rights candidate would probably have run and won AL and MS and possibly LA and SC...  
       

OK.

[Gustaf]

You go to election info instead of 2004 and retrieve the 1964 calculator.

[Gustaf]

Thanks Gustaf

You're welcome.