No strong third party candiate in the 1968 , 1980, 1992 election
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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  No strong third party candiate in the 1968 , 1980, 1992 election
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Author Topic: No strong third party candiate in the 1968 , 1980, 1992 election  (Read 3746 times)
OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« on: February 10, 2015, 12:42:38 AM »

1968:



Nixon 356
Humphrey: 182


1980:



Reagan 434
Carter 104


1992:



Ok made mistake in Vermont so lets give that to Clinton

Clinton 274
Bush 264
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Clarko95 📚💰📈
Clarko95
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2015, 12:19:27 AM »

1992:



Ok made mistake in Vermont so lets give that to Clinton

Clinton 274
Bush 264

No.
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OSR stands with Israel
Computer89
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« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2015, 12:32:07 AM »

1992:



Ok made mistake in Vermont so lets give that to Clinton

Clinton 274
Bush 264

No.


With Perot gone Bush increases his margin in the popular vote by 12 % while Clinton increases it by 6.9% .

That causes Bush to win every state which was decided by 5 points or less
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"'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"
DarthNader
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« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2015, 11:05:54 AM »

1992:



Ok made mistake in Vermont so lets give that to Clinton

Clinton 274
Bush 264

No.


With Perot gone Bush increases his margin in the popular vote by 12 % while Clinton increases it by 6.9% .

That causes Bush to win every state which was decided by 5 points or less

Yeah, that wouldn't have happened. No one with 30%-35% approval is going to increase his popular vote that much.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2015, 12:51:40 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2015, 07:00:56 PM by shua »

1968

Nixon picks a majority of the leftovers in the West, and in the Border States, picking up Maryland. Nixon and Humphrey fight a more even match for Wallace-would-be voters in the Midwest and Northeast, and the South is in the throes of it's awkward and uneven transitional phase.



Richard M. Nixon / Spiro Agnew                        51.5%   328
Hubert H. Humphrey / Edmund Muskie              46.9%   203
Jim "Crow" Hasbeen / Dale Random Peashooter    1.1%      7
Benjamin Spock / Pigasus                                     .4%


1980



Ronald Reagan / George H.W. Bush   53.1%  465
Jimmy Carter / Walter Mondale         44.5%    73
Ed Clark / David Koch                        1.4%
Barry Commoner / LaDonna Harris        .6%
other                                                  .4%
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shua
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« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2015, 10:53:13 PM »
« Edited: February 15, 2015, 01:04:14 PM by shua »

1992



Bill Clinton / Al Gore          51.2    346 
GHW Bush / Dan Quayle    47.7    192
others                                1.1

and while we are at it...
1996



Bill Clinton / Al Gore                51.6   367
Bob Dole / Jack Kemp              45.7   171
Ralph Nader / Winona LaDuke    1.3
Harry Browne / Jo Jorgensen      0.9

I give the GOP a greater majority of the Perot vote this time than in 92, but Clinton has a greater lead in the popular vote and increases his EV by picking up FL.
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SteveRogers
duncan298
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« Reply #6 on: February 19, 2015, 01:16:23 PM »

1992:



Ok made mistake in Vermont so lets give that to Clinton

Clinton 274
Bush 264

No.


With Perot gone Bush increases his margin in the popular vote by 12 % while Clinton increases it by 6.9% .

That causes Bush to win every state which was decided by 5 points or less

Nope.
1. Perot actually drew support pretty close to evenly from both candidates, not overwhelmingly from Bush.
2. A substantial chunk of Perot voters simply wouldn't have turned out to vote had Perot not run.
3. Perot ran up a lot of his vote in noncompetitive states (For instance, Perot came in second in Utah and Maine).
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2015, 06:41:15 PM »

No Nader, No Buchanan in 2000 means... We all have cars powered on trash, and the U.S. has a 16 Trillion Dollar surplus. Sad Times indeed.
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Emperor Charles V
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« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2015, 08:14:59 AM »


The deep south would be much much closer than you have it because Yellow Dogs were still very much a thing. I would even say that a majority of Wallace voters would go for Humphrey if they had to chose between him and Nixon. There was still an "anyone but a Republican" mentality which really didn't go away until the eighties (just look at the next election where the Democrats did not nominate a far-left loon like McGovern). Goldwater was an anomaly because he voted against the Civil Rights Act for libertarian reasons (but any vote against the CRA was good enough for the racist deep south).
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SteveRogers
duncan298
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« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2015, 05:28:01 PM »

1992:



Ok made mistake in Vermont so lets give that to Clinton

Clinton 274
Bush 264

No.


With Perot gone Bush increases his margin in the popular vote by 12 % while Clinton increases it by 6.9% .

That causes Bush to win every state which was decided by 5 points or less

Yeah, that wouldn't have happened. No one with 30%-35% approval is going to increase his popular vote that much.

Wrong. Bush had a 25% approval rating on election night 2008 and McCain still received 46% of the vote.

Bush and McCain were two different people...
Huh
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2015, 08:42:17 PM »



Nixon (R)  366 EV
Humphrey (D)  172 EV

If there had been no Wallace, it is possible that HHH would have selected a moderate Southerner, which may have enabled the Democrats to carry TN, NC, and POSSIBLY VA and FL.
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