PA-2016/Quinnipiac: Sen. Toomey (R) up 10 vs. Sestak
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  PA-2016/Quinnipiac: Sen. Toomey (R) up 10 vs. Sestak
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Author Topic: PA-2016/Quinnipiac: Sen. Toomey (R) up 10 vs. Sestak  (Read 7955 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: February 10, 2015, 06:56:30 AM »

U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey leads possible Democratic challenger Joe Sestak 45 - 35 percent in an early look at a possible rematch in 2016.

Toomey gets a 43 - 25 percent approval rating from Pennsylvania voters, who say 37 - 29 percent that he deserves reelection. His favorability rating is 37 - 21 percent.

For Sestak, 64 percent of voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

U.S. Sen. Robert Casey Jr. gets a 40 - 24 percent approval rating.

...

From January 22 - February 1 Quinnipiac University surveyed:

881 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2133
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1 on: February 10, 2015, 07:46:15 AM »

LOL @ Pbrower.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: February 10, 2015, 09:00:12 AM »

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: February 10, 2015, 11:32:26 AM »

Titlt GOP for now, but campaigning hasnt started yet. Top tier battleground along with Harry Reid and Mark Kirk.

But good news for Toomey.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #4 on: February 10, 2015, 01:01:58 PM »

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Free Bird
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« Reply #5 on: February 10, 2015, 02:52:15 PM »

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Free Bird
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« Reply #6 on: February 10, 2015, 02:53:09 PM »

What's this about a 20s approval rating and that also spelling doom, Mr. Brower?
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2015, 02:56:25 PM »

Bad news for a Democratic senate
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Maxwell
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« Reply #8 on: February 10, 2015, 02:57:00 PM »

Cue: five page long post about Nate Silver.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: February 10, 2015, 03:37:59 PM »

Definitely way better news for Toomey than the PPP poll, particularly due to the approval and favorability scores being much higher. The head to head numbers are a bit better for him, not necessarily because of the margin, but because he's in the mid 40s as opposed to the low 40s. Tilt R sounds about right this early.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: February 10, 2015, 03:50:41 PM »

Bad news for a Democratic senate


Braley amd Udall were favored too. Dont underestimate Sestak.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2015, 03:54:05 PM »

What was that magic number, again? 42%? If so, the lovely Senator Casey is in some serious trouble especially considering how long he has been around for people to start liking him. Tongue
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #12 on: February 10, 2015, 04:12:04 PM »

What was that magic number, again? 42%? If so, the lovely Senator Casey is in some serious trouble especially considering how long he has been around for people to start liking him. Tongue
The magic number PBrower states is 44%.

The thing that makes his theory really preposterous, is that under it, 44-43 approval, 44-35 approval, and 44-50 approval all mean the same thing. This is because it's based on just the approval number and not the margin between that and the disapproval number. Which is just silly and stupid beyond belief.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: February 10, 2015, 04:14:12 PM »

Toomey gonna lose in a landslide...
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Vega
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« Reply #14 on: February 10, 2015, 04:20:31 PM »

Just going to leave this poll from mid-2014 for the Colorado Senate election here...

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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: February 10, 2015, 04:37:08 PM »

From a look at his thread, it seems PBrower has decided to ignore this poll, as he still has Toomey in the 20% shading. The usual "I only believe polls that I like" practice is present.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: February 10, 2015, 05:04:39 PM »


Not ignoring it.

The 28% approval rating for Pat Toomey from PPP could be an outlier. We are going to see lots of polls.

That said -- Pennsylvania is tilt-D, and Toomey barely won in one of the most Republican-tilting elections in Congressional history. If 2016 is the same sort of political climate, Toomey wins, and Republicans get more seats in the Senate on the way to getting the ability to change the Constitution practically at will in January 2019 as they gain even more Senate seats in  the wake of the 2018 election.

This said, nobody can predict what the political climate of 2016 will be. The Koch family has committed nearly $900 million to the Congressional campaign of 2016. Money shouts in our political order, and it may now rule.

Pat Toomey will not lose in a landslide -- that is certain. Unlike Rick Santorum he has not abused power as a toady of the current President; unlike Pat Corbett he has not soiled himself protecting a corrupt institution. But in a high-turnout election as is the norm for a Presidential year, he will have trouble convincing Democratic-leaning voters to vote for him or (more likely) stay home.   

We can predict some of the features of the 2016 election about as reliably as we can predict the Olympic medal count for China, any winner of the Nobel Prize for medicine, the TV program line-ups of 2016, or the World Series.   

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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #17 on: February 10, 2015, 05:14:18 PM »

Just going to leave this poll from mid-2014 for the Colorado Senate election here...



That would be a great argument...if anyone was saying this was a lock for the GOP. No one is. Our points in this thread was that this reputable poll refutes the insanely asinine point that Toomey is finished. Don't misrepresent our argument, friend.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: February 10, 2015, 05:54:35 PM »

Just going to leave this poll from mid-2014 for the Colorado Senate election here...



Yes. Elections change. But like Udall in the summer of 2014, Toomey is ahead at this point in time. That's what polls are for. Doesn't mean Joe Sestak can't run a round-the-globe campaign and whoop Toomey's behind. Similarily, it doesn't Toomey can't run up the margin and commit genocide on Sestak. It just means, right now, Toomey is up 10, which a healthy number of undecideds meaning this is far from over.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: February 10, 2015, 06:18:14 PM »

Card check was very much an issue in the primary with Specter, concerning the santity of the ballot box.

And ACA was ignored. But, now voters have a good economy to benefit from, this poll may be a lagging indicator. I think Sestak can win on the economy.
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Xing
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« Reply #20 on: February 10, 2015, 09:31:44 PM »

As much as pbrower may be guilty of only believing in the poll numbers he likes, so is everyone here who is acting like this poll completely negates the PPP one. It's a good poll for Toomey, but let's see if other polls show similar results before concluding that Toomey is in good shape.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #21 on: February 10, 2015, 10:25:27 PM »

I agree with what others have said: it's good for Toomey, and he should be considered a favorite.  However, it certainly doesn't spell absolute doom for Democrats.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: February 11, 2015, 12:06:59 AM »

We also need to consider the State in question.

Approval is relevant because that says much about the incumbent politician and his effectiveness. That includes creating a positive image of himself and not losing it --and constituent service (as in bringing home the goodies from pork-barrel politics).

 But so of course are

(1) the quality of the opponent
(2) the campaign itself
(3) the state in question
(4) the political climate at the time of the election, and
(5) fund raising and expenditures on front groups. 

(1) about all that we know is that Pat Toomey will run for re-election.
(2) we have yet to see that
(3) it is Pennsylvania, and a conservative Republican is in a tough state to get re-elected in
(4) midterms and Presidential electorates are very different, and how well Americans perceive the two Parties will shape how the Senate elections go
(5) if the Republican hold on the Senate depends upon Pat Toomey while four other Republican incumbents are crashing and burning and the race for US Senator from Pennsylvania, then count on the Koch fronts to flood Pennsylvania airways with ads demonizing his opponent as those fronts did to every vulnerable incumbent Democratic Senator in 2014. Those ads worked extremely well. Democrats do not do that well unless the Republican practically says something stupid about rape -- Pat Toomey isn't that stupid.

If the political climate of America is again as in 2010 and 2014, then we can reasonably count on the Republicans holding onto the Senate, with Toomey safely re-elected.

In another thread I noticed that the approval rating for Senator Boozman (R-AR) has only a 40% approval rating. But that's Arkansas, a state that has swung quickly and probably forever, to the Right. The 40% approval for Boozman gives me less cause to believe that a Democrat could unseat him than does the 43% approval rating for Toomey.

I see Boozman far from his ceiling and Toomey close to his.

   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: February 11, 2015, 02:15:23 AM »

As much as pbrower may be guilty of only believing in the poll numbers he likes, so is everyone here who is acting like this poll completely negates the PPP one. It's a good poll for Toomey, but let's see if other polls show similar results before concluding that Toomey is in good shape.

I agree with what others have said: it's good for Toomey, and he should be considered a favorite.  However, it certainly doesn't spell absolute doom for Democrats.

PPP and Quinnipiac will get plenty of polling results for the Keystone State.  It's still a long time until November 2016. The public mood can turn on a dime. Heck, nobody knows who the challenger will be.

One thing is certain -- Senator Toomey will be one of the most obvious targets of the Democratic Senatorial campaign until he shows himself out of reach.

(Heck, I see a way in which the Republicans can win the Senate seat from California!)   
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #24 on: February 11, 2015, 02:23:20 AM »
« Edited: February 11, 2015, 02:30:26 AM by OC »

Corey Gardner had 7-10 pt leads as well,  Quinnepiac sampled, and the Dems were well within margin of error as election came around, as we are full aware of.
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