Split states for President and Senate

[ElectionsGuy]

How many states are we going to see with split party results between Senate and President? In 2012, we saw 6 (IN, MO, MT, NV, ND, and WV), in 2008 we saw 7 (AK, AR, LA, ME, MT, SD, and WV). In 2016, it could be as many as 8 or as low as 1 or 0. I think New Hampshire is the most likely to be split, then after that probably Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Nevada. The senatorial map likely being more Republican than the presidential map, just because of all the Republican incumbents from 2010.

[Miles]

In general order from most likely to least likely to split:

IA
NH
OH
PA
WI
FL
NC
IL
AZ
CO
GA

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Obviously we'd all expect the trend to see less ticket splitting continue, but there will be a few states that should split.

It should be worth noting that in the 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012 elections, Democrats have won 22 Senate seats in states the Republican nominee carried, to the Republicans' 7 Senate seats won in states the Democratic nominee carried.

Iowa, New Hampshire, and Florida are the three I could see most likely going Democratic for the Presidential and Republican for Senate (although it would be great if Rubio and Ayotte lost...)

[ElectionsGuy]

Jeez, forgot about Iowa with Grassely. That would probably be the most likely.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

I would love for a Hillary victory scenario where Colorado splits, voting for Bennet and the Republican Presidential nominee. Then all the "muh Hillary sucks in Colorado muh" posters in the Presidential board will be vindicated.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Adding in Nevada, and correcting this most-to-least likely split list:

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