NH-St. Anselm: Hillary, Jeb leads

[RogueBeaver]

Hillary 56, other Dems scattered. Pubs: Jeb 16, Rand 13, Walker 12, Christie 10, rest scattered.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

This confirms the Big Four original post that I fully agree with. The de facto Iowa SoCon plus Cruz should not even be getting mentioned as potential nominees. There are clear favorites. Even if Christie is a bit of a regional one like a possible emerging Iowa SoCon, I wouldn't be terribly shocked if he made inroads in other states due to fubding. A respectable performance here makes him better than Rudy already. The problem would be that Jebs advantage is happening in upcoming states, but we'll see if he even lasts or his voters peel off in SC to Huck or Carson or someone while Christie keeps the establishment.

Christie is still a frontrunner.

Rubio is unbelievably overrated.

[IceSpear]

Junk poll!

#itrustgravis
#hillaryisdoomed

Anyway...>Including Warren. O'Malley and Webb both at 0...lol. Looks like the Dem primary very well may end up as Hillary vs. Sanders.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Anyway...>Including Warren. O'Malley and Webb both at 0...lol. Looks like the Dem primary very well may end up as Hillary vs. Sanders.

#Sandersmentum

There really hasn't been much media attention on either O'Malley or Webb. I've been hearing a lot about Sanders though. As the race starts in earnest, that may change. At this point though, Bernie is looking like the main challenger.

[IceSpear]

They didn't test any GE matchups, but they did do favorability numbers. Looks pretty rosy overall for the Dems.

[Mr. Morden]

Dems

Clinton 56%
Warren 15%
Biden 8%
Sanders 8%
O'Malley 0%
Webb 0%

GOP

Bush 16%
Paul 13%
Walker 12%
Christie 10%
Carson 6%
Huckabee 6%
Rubio 5%
Cruz 3%
Jindal 3%
Trump 3%
Kasich 2%
Santorum 2%
Fiorina 1%
Perry 1%
Pence 0%

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

#Hillarybelow60
#Warrenwillwin

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Christie is still a frontrunner.

Because he finished 4th in a NH poll?

Because he's is well within striking distance in one of the first two where he can easily build upon his efforts. Bush really has no business winning here - all name recognition among olds. Walker only would if he succeeds in Iowa (which would eliminate a lot from being top 4 candidates). Paul has an obvious base, but Christie could just as easily consolidate the not Paul vote. He's a contender especially if NY remains somewhat early to continue his momentum.

[Suburbia]

Poor O'Malley. He better campaign more in NH.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Christie is still a frontrunner.

Because he finished 4th in a NH poll?

Because he's is well within striking distance in one of the first two where he can easily build upon his efforts. Bush really has no business winning here - all name recognition among olds. Walker only would if he succeeds in Iowa (which would eliminate a lot from being top 4 candidates). Paul has an obvious base, but Christie could just as easily consolidate the not Paul vote. He's a contender especially if NY remains somewhat early to continue his momentum.

NY was in April last time, by which point Romney had essentially locked up the nomination...

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Christie is still a frontrunner.

Because he finished 4th in a NH poll?

Because he's is well within striking distance in one of the first two where he can easily build upon his efforts. Bush really has no business winning here - all name recognition among olds. Walker only would if he succeeds in Iowa (which would eliminate a lot from being top 4 candidates). Paul has an obvious base, but Christie could just as easily consolidate the not Paul vote. He's a contender especially if NY remains somewhat early to continue his momentum.

NY was in April last time, by which point Romney had essentially locked up the nomination...

And it is tentatively scheduled for February 2nd for 2016, right after Iowa and New Hampshire. They will be penalized if they don't move it back behind NV so it is likely to be at the end of February or March AFAIK.

[Mr. Morden]

Paul really isn't doing too well in some of the recent national and non-early state polls.  But looks like he's still doing well in IA and NH.  If he actually finishes in the top two in both states, then he can make some noise later on (perhaps including a win in NV, now that Romney's out of the picture).

But I still don't give him much chance of winning the nomination.

Christie is still a frontrunner.

Because he finished 4th in a NH poll?

Because he's is well within striking distance in one of the first two where he can easily build upon his efforts. Bush really has no business winning here - all name recognition among olds. Walker only would if he succeeds in Iowa (which would eliminate a lot from being top 4 candidates). Paul has an obvious base, but Christie could just as easily consolidate the not Paul vote. He's a contender especially if NY remains somewhat early to continue his momentum.

NY was in April last time, by which point Romney had essentially locked up the nomination...

And it is tentatively scheduled for February 2nd for 2016, right after Iowa and New Hampshire. They will be penalized if they don't move it back behind NV so it is likely to be at the end of February or March AFAIK.

It was moved to the first Tuesday of Feb. in 2007, and that's when it was held for the 2008 cycle.  Then when the legislature moved it back to April for 2008, the law they passed only affected the timing for 2012.  So yes, it now reverts to the first Tuesday of Feb.

But you're right, if they hold it in February, they suffer stiff penalties from both national parties.  So I would assume that they'll move it to March 1 or later.  Maybe back to April, like in 2012.

[Tender Branson]

They didn't test any GE matchups, but they did do favorability numbers. Looks pretty rosy overall for the Dems.

If these numbers are correct, then Hillary probably leads Bush by 10-15% in the general.

[Mr. Morden]

Given the popular conception of Bush as one of the more "moderate" options, he really doesn't do that well among Independents.  Here's the breakdown between Republicans and Indies:



And here's the fraction of voters in each party's primary who identified as Independents, by year:

[Mr. Morden]

Here's a writeup on Bush's lack of support among Independents:

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-02-11/bloomberg-politics-saint-anselm-new-hampshire-poll-independents-uneasy-about-jeb-bush

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And then, oddly, this paragraph makes it sound like the NH Independents who want to vote in the GOP primary are more conservative than the NH Republicans who want to vote in the GOP primary:

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Perhaps the Independents who vote in GOP primaries are disproportionately Paul-style paleocon/libertarian fusionists?