The Jewish vote: 5 types

[King of Kensington]

An assessment of the so-called "Jewish vote" in the US, from Professor Steven Windmueller:

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http://www.jewishjournal.com/thewindreport/item/the_great_jewish_divide_competing_voices_and_distinct_voting_patterns_20120

I don't know much about the voting patterns of "Southern and Mid-Western Jews."  Of the remaining four, the first two are solidly Republican and the other two are solidly Democratic.

I'm guessing there is another category that is sort of affluent suburban, Reform or Conservative, not particularly "liberal", strongly pro-Israel but are totally turned off by the religious right and Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin types and vote Democratic not in spite of an alternative, but because of the alternative.  Basically they'd call themselves "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" - may have voted for Reagan but swung heavily Democrat in 1992.  Obviously this group overlaps most with the more "right-wing" elements of the "urban elite" category.

[Horus]

I definitely qualify as a "southern or midwestern" Jew. I find Israel to be more of a nuisance than anything else, and my moderate-Libertarian beliefs fit in quite well with my hometown of Columbus.

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

I've noticed that the more recent immigrant Jews do tend to be more right-wing and pro-Israel probably in response to Soviet anti-semitism. A lot of red diaper Jews ironically at this point com from Upper middle class families and above and rebel against there parents and grandparents more moderate to liberal Pro-Israel/PEP stance in favor of a more left-leaning outlook. I guess hut the first wave of Russian-Jewish immigrants were more left-wing given that they were persecuted by the czars.

[Libertarian Socialist Dem]

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/07/liberal-on-everything-but-israel-theres-a-name-for-that/

[King of Kensington]

I would guess the most liberal Jews live in California and New England.  

Midwestern Jews for instance I would think probably vote more Democratic in presidential elections than New York Jews (given the big Orthodox and immigrant elements).  But New York would likely have more of the "red diaper" types too.

[Indy Texas]

I'd imagine there are plenty who don't fall into any of the above categories.

Most of the Jewish people I know and grew up with were largely indifferent to their religious traditions. There was one guy who was extremely serious about studying Judaism - he spoke Hebrew pretty well, regularly attended services, had been to Israel multiple times - and was totally left-wing on every possible issue, including the Palestinian Question. There was another who actually wasn't Jewish at all - he was a conservative Catholic but considered himself "ethnically Jewish" because his maternal grandparents had been Jewish converts to Christianity. He was basically your standard issue neoconservative Republican and is probably wistfully hoping for a Lindsey Graham/Joe Lieberman 2016 ticket.

[ag]

It is of interest how little electoral success the Republican Jewish groups can boast these days Back in the day when "right-wing" among the Jews in NYC meant "Sociallist" - to distinguish from the proper "left-wing" Communist, you, actually, had elected Republican Jewish politicians.  These days, aside from a lonely freshman Republican congresseman from Long Island, is there anybody there at all?

[King of Kensington]

Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin and their ilk are a major turnoff for Jews.   They won't vote Republican no matter how pro-Israel they are. 

[ag]

Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin and their ilk are a major turnoff for Jews.   They won't vote Republican no matter how pro-Israel they are. 

Well, there are quite a few who do. You can find a Jewish Republican voter. The question is: where are Jewish Republican politicians.

[ag]

Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin and their ilk are a major turnoff for Jews.   They won't vote Republican no matter how pro-Israel they are. 

And, if anything, Sarachkah Palin turns on elderly Russian Jews. They cannot understand what she is saying, anyway.

[King of Kensington]

Well, there are quite a few who do. You can find a Jewish Republican voter. The question is: where are Jewish Republican politicians.

Obviously yes - religious and immigrant Jews. But the religious right and populist demagogues have made the GOP unappealing to moderate Jews from 1992 on.   In 1980 Reagan got about 40% of the Jewish vote.  A conservative Party of the British, Canadian or Australian Liberal type party (particularly not with a Tony Abbott type at the helm) would be more competitive with US Jews (the Southern and Midwestern Jews would probably fit in this category, and suburban voters generally).

I'm Canadian and I don't think we have an equivalent to "Southern and Midwestern Jews" but we certainly have the other four.  My own background is a mix of "red diaper" and "urban elite."

[ag]

Well, there are quite a few who do. You can find a Jewish Republican voter. The question is: where are Jewish Republican politicians.

Obviously yes - religious and immigrant Jews. But the religious right and populist demagogues have made the GOP unappealing to moderate Jews from 1992 on.   In 1980 Reagan got about 40% of the Jewish vote.  A conservative Party of the British, Canadian or Australian Liberal type party (particularly not with a Tony Abbott type at the helm) would be more competitive with US Jews (the Southern and Midwestern Jews would probably fit in this category, and suburban voters generally).

I'm Canadian and I don't think we have an equivalent to "Southern and Midwestern Jews" but we certainly have the other four.  My own background is a mix of "red diaper" and "urban elite."

Well, we´ve had this discussion many times before here. There was a poster some time ago who tried to demonstrate that the religious and the Russians are now in majority, which is, obviously, bullocks. But neither should we forget about them, and they ARE growing as a proportion of the Jewish population in the US.

In any case, Jews have been a majority Dem electorate since times immemorial. There is no puzzle there to resolve. If anything, the roughly 30% of the Jewish vote Romney got is high by historic standards (Bush Jr. was around 20% in 2000) and is not that far below the Reagan number you cite (remember, Reagan won that election, while Romney lost - so, relative to the society at large the difference is even smaller).

The real puzzle is the lack of prominent Republican Jewish politicians. For all its "Israel-friendliness", the Republican party has had real trouble electing Jewish politicians recently (a couple of generations ago, even with much more leftist Jewish mainstream, it seems to have had no such trouble). They did, briefly, have a prominent Jewish congressman (Cantor), but he lost in a primary. If not for the luck of Lee Zeldin winning in NY-1 in November, there would have been exactly zero Jewish Republicans in Congress (there are around 30 Democrats). 30% of the Jews voted Republican in 2012 - and they are represented by a single freshman member of the House. Hell, Jewish (small-s) sociallists are doing better - they have a fairly senior and well-established Sen. Sanders, and he is a lot safer as I-VT than any R-NY, still more R-LI will ever be.

[King of Kensington]

Well, we´ve had this discussion many times before here. There was a poster some time ago who tried to demonstrate that the religious and the Russians are now in majority, which is, obviously, bullocks. But neither should we forget about them, and they ARE growing as a proportion of the Jewish population in the US.

They may be approaching a majority in NYC, but not in the US as a whole.

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So in other words it took 20 years to recover from the collapse in the GOP vote.  But to a large extent this just mirrors a pattern in affluent suburbs of major cities swinging away from the GOP - i.e. why states like CA and NJ used to be competitive but are now Democrat strongholds in presidential elections.

The Orthodox/FSU share of the Jewish population was also considerably smaller in 1980 than it is today.

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That's a very good point.  If the GOP is so "Jewish friendly" why do they attract so few Jewish candidates?  Demographically, most of the "Jewish vote" isn't winnable because too many subsets just won't vote for them.  Though the fact that it's so beholden to the religious right is certainly a big factor.

[Sol]

In local politics, the Orthodox and Hasidim are still willing to vote for Democrats, which may explain why there isn't really much of a base for Jewish GOPers. Borough Park is represented by a ConservaDem, IIRC.

[ag]

In local politics, the Orthodox and Hasidim are still willing to vote for Democrats, which may explain why there isn't really much of a base for Jewish GOPers. Borough Park is represented by a ConservaDem, IIRC.

Interestingly enough, it is not only the Orthodox Jews that are locally represented by the Dems (Dov Hikind, of course, is your guy). The only Russian in NY legislature is Alec Brook Krasny, and he is a Dem as well. One would think that Republicans would find a guy to run from Brighton Beach, for god's sake! But, you know what: the state Senate, which they gerrymandered, they gerrymandered to split the Russian vote. They may have got a senator out of that, but he ain't any immigrant Jew. So, Brighton Beach Russians only get Mr. Brook Krasny: a Dem, and also one originally from Moscow (not at all the origin of most of the Brighton Beach folk).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Poor Odessa, always getting screwed over.

[King of Kensington]

It would be interesting to do the "types" of Jewish voter for NYC neighborhoods (and other places).  Obviously the immigrant and religious Jews are in Brooklyn and Queens - (i.e. Brighton Beach for Russian Jews, Borough Park and Williamsburg for Hasidic Jews, etc.)  Manhattan would be dominated by the "urban elite."  Though there's several "red diaper" or socialist Jews as well - probably more on the Upper West Side than anywhere else, though they'd be outnumbered by the "urban elite liberal types.  Others and more modern-day "radical chic" would be found in Lower Manhattan and Brownstone Brooklyn. 

[Sol]

It would be interesting to do the "types" of Jewish voter for NYC neighborhoods (and other places).  Obviously the immigrant and religious Jews are in Brooklyn and Queens - (i.e. Brighton Beach for Russian Jews, Borough Park and Williamsburg for Hasidic Jews, etc.)  Manhattan would be dominated by the "urban elite."  Though there's several "red diaper" or socialist Jews as well - probably more on the Upper West Side than anywhere else, though they'd be outnumbered by the "urban elite liberal types.  Others and more modern-day "radical chic" would be found in Lower Manhattan and Brownstone Brooklyn. 

Doesn't Gravesend have a substantial Sephardic community, or am I misremembering things?

[Brittain33]

It would be interesting to do the "types" of Jewish voter for NYC neighborhoods (and other places).  Obviously the immigrant and religious Jews are in Brooklyn and Queens - (i.e. Brighton Beach for Russian Jews, Borough Park and Williamsburg for Hasidic Jews, etc.)  Manhattan would be dominated by the "urban elite."  Though there's several "red diaper" or socialist Jews as well - probably more on the Upper West Side than anywhere else, though they'd be outnumbered by the "urban elite liberal types.  Others and more modern-day "radical chic" would be found in Lower Manhattan and Brownstone Brooklyn. 

Doesn't Gravesend have a substantial Sephardic community, or am I misremembering things?

Is that where the Syrian Jewish community lives? Highly insular.

[King of Kensington]

Very much so.  I also remember reading that Romney over 90% of the vote in the heavily Syrian Jewish precincts.

[King of Kensington]

Here's my attempt at NYC:

Southern and Midwestern:  N/A

Immigrant:  Brighton Beach, Gravesend, Forest Hills/Rego Park

Religious:  Borough Park, Williamsburg, Flatbush, Rockaway

Red diaper:  Upper West Side, Lower Manhattan, Brownstone Brooklyn

Urban elite:  UES, UWS, Lower Manhattan, Brownstone Brooklyn, Riverdale

[njwes]

I'm guessing there is another category that is sort of affluent suburban, Reform or Conservative, not particularly "liberal", strongly pro-Israel but are totally turned off by the religious right and Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin types and vote Democratic not in spite of an alternative, but because of the alternative.  Basically they'd call themselves "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" - may have voted for Reagan but swung heavily Democrat in 1992.  Obviously this group overlaps most with the more "right-wing" elements of the "urban elite" category.

I think you're right to say that this is a general category, but I'd actually say that this category more or less fits under "Southern and Midwestern Jews" given the description in the article, and that the name "Southern and Midwestern Jews" was just a poor choice.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Here's my attempt at NYC:

Southern and Midwestern:  N/A

Immigrant:  Brighton Beach, Gravesend, Forest Hills/Rego Park

Religious:  Borough Park, Williamsburg, Flatbush, Rockaway

Red diaper:  Upper West Side, Lower Manhattan, Brownstone Brooklyn

Urban elite:  UES, UWS, Lower Manhattan, Brownstone Brooklyn, Riverdale

Pretty accurate, although at this point a lot of the red diaper types are the children of the Urban elite demographic. The original red diaper generation is mostly dying out unfortunately.

[King of Kensington]

I think you're right to say that this is a general category, but I'd actually say that this category more or less fits under "Southern and Midwestern Jews" given the description in the article, and that the name "Southern and Midwestern Jews" was just a poor choice.

What about say, Nassau County?