Fitch Ratings has downgraded Austria
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  Fitch Ratings has downgraded Austria
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solarstorm
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« on: February 14, 2015, 07:34:50 PM »

Five euro countries had previously received the top grade by the rating agency Fitch, the rating of AAA. But this already small circle has continued to shrink: Austria has been downgraded - which , however, has been taken note of in Vienna with serenity. The US rating agency Fitch has divested Austria of the top grade due to its significant increase in debt. The assessment of the creditworthiness of the Alpine republic had been reduced by one notch from AAA to AA +, said the institute.

Fitch referred to the until recently not expected large increase in government debt to 89 percent of the GDP. This is higher than in all other states with a top rating - apart from the US. In addition, Fitch expects that Austria will reduce its debt more slowly than previously expected. However, Austria needn't be apprehensive of further degradations; the outlook is estimated by Fitch to be "stable".

The Vienna Ministry of Finance said that the national debt had risen "due to the recalculation of the debt level according to European system and due to the active processing of the liabilities of variuos bank restructuring projects" and would decline again in the coming years. There aren't any fears the rating would have any negative effect; Austria remains "one of the best places for investors."

Among the three major rating agencies, only Moody's still rates Austria with the highest rating. Standard & Poor's had already downgraded several euro countries - including Austria - in January 2012 and justified it with the disunity of the policy in the debt crisis.

Hence, there are only four euro states left that Fitch rates AAA: Germany, Finland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.
Among all three major agencies only Germany and Luxembourg still receive the top grade.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102425624


(The Fitch map is not up-to-date yet. Sad )
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windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: February 14, 2015, 07:35:39 PM »

Why has it been downgraded???
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solarstorm
solarstorm2012
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« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2015, 07:39:50 PM »


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RFayette
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« Reply #3 on: February 18, 2015, 07:25:11 PM »


Yikes.  That's a good warning to the U.S. not to go on this "spending surge" that both the House GOP (military) and Dems (other sequester stuff) seem intent on going through with.  We need to keep spending frozen.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: February 19, 2015, 08:10:47 AM »


Mostly because the Austrian government finally (and wayyyyy too late) decided to solve the HYPO bank problem, for which they set up a bad bank to wind it down. The bad bank includes ca. 18 Bio. € of more or less toxic assets on the Balkans, that the bad bank will try to sell in the next 10-20 years.

But because the bad bank was set up, the 18 Bio. € in there must be added to the state debt. 18 Bio. € is roughly equivalent of 6% of the GDP.

Fitch estimates that this will increase Austrian debt to 89%, but it will be more like 86-87% at the end of this year.

If the bad bank assets are sold in the next years, debt as a percentage of GDP should go down again.

Similar bad banks have been set up in Germany too, but the German government was much faster in doing so, establishing them already right after the financial crisis hit.

Yikes.  That's a good warning to the U.S. not to go on this "spending surge" that both the House GOP (military) and Dems (other sequester stuff) seem intent on going through with.  We need to keep spending frozen.

The big debt increase here during the past 7 years has mostly to do with other stuff though, not really spending. See my answer above. Mostly bank restructuring payments, because our banks are heavily involved in Eastern and South Eastern Europe. After 2008, their economies went down and the banks got into trouble and now the taxpayers have to pay for cleaning up the mess (which was actually caused by FPÖ-figures in the early 2000s, when they agreed that the HYPO could heavily expand into the Balkans).

The other big chunck or reason why our debt has gone up significantly in recent years was the debt in state-owned companies such as the ÖBB (railway) and ASFINAG (road construction and repair). EUROSTAT has recently demanded that these debts must be included into the official state debt.

...

Nonetheless, even though Fitch has downgraded Austria to AA+ it should be noted that since WW2 we have never had lower interest payments for our state debt.

I think the 10-year bonds are at only 0.38 right now, which is not much higher than Germany's 10-year bond yields.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5 on: March 03, 2015, 02:59:05 AM »

More sh!t on the way (and ironically, the bad news was released just 1 day after the Carinthia elections, where the HYPO-debacle originated):

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If the additional 7.6 Bio. € are deficit-effective (and they most likely will be), Austria will have a budget-deficit of ca. 3.3% for 2014.

This will be a massive pain in the ass for the next years to come ...

Thanks Jörg (Haider) !
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: March 03, 2015, 04:00:45 AM »

The news that the government will not use further taxpayer money for the bad-bank and to bail in creditors does not have any effect on federal government bonds though.

They are still around 0.43 for the 10-year bonds (6th lowest in the world).

http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/government-bond-spreads

Which means that the HYPO/HETA decisions are bad in the long run for the reputation of state guarantees (such as Carinthia's), but not for the Austrian bond market itself.
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