The 10 counties that have ALWAYS voted Republican

[ElectionsGuy]

Always voted for the Republican candidate, no Roosevelt in 1912 or anything, from 1856 (with exceptions) to 2012. So the rules were that they couldn't be defunct counties, they had to exist now. It can be a county formed after 1856. For southern states, I started it at 1868 (or 1864) since the Republicans weren't on the ballot before then.

Doniphan, KS
Clay, KY
Leslie, KY
Owsley, KY
Gasconade, MO
Yadkin, NC 
Cocke, TN
Hancock, TN
Poquson (IC), VA
Morgan, WV

If Colonial Heights Virginia voted for Dewey in '48 or didn't exist then it would also be on the list, though I don't know if it was even an independent city then or how it voted.

[Mr. Illini]

Two things:

1) I have been to the Leslie/Clay, KY area before. Why have these counties always voted Republican while Appalachia has seen massive shifts? I have been to areas of Appalachia before that have been part of the shifts and cannot identify what has caused these differences.

2) How does Waukesha County, WI fit into this picture? I can't imagine a time that it would have been voting Democratic.

[Skill and Chance]

Two things:

1) I have been to the Leslie/Clay, KY area before. Why have these counties always voted Republican while Appalachia has seen massive shifts? I have been to areas of Appalachia before that have been part of the shifts and cannot identify what has caused these differences.

2) How does Waukesha County, WI fit into this picture? I can't imagine a time that it would have been voting Democratic.

Waukesha (and Washington and Ozaukee) all went for LBJ in 1964.  My sense is that 1964 took care of any remaining all time R streaks in the rural North.

[ElectionsGuy]

Two things:

1) I have been to the Leslie/Clay, KY area before. Why have these counties always voted Republican while Appalachia has seen massive shifts? I have been to areas of Appalachia before that have been part of the shifts and cannot identify what has caused these differences.

2) How does Waukesha County, WI fit into this picture? I can't imagine a time that it would have been voting Democratic.

1) I think I can address this with a DRA shot:



The area (generally) in blue has been historically very Republican since the Civil War. The area (generally) in red is the area that Democrats have done really well in historically and is trending heavily Republican now. The two areas are similar demographically and culturally, but pretty different politically. As for what's causing the red to shift, its probably a combination of energy policy, not being culturally liberal, and other stuff like that.

2) Waukesha County only got its Republican strength starting in the 50's and 60's. Unlike the Chicago suburbs, it has gotten more Republican over the past 20 years. If you can find the 'how has your county voted' thread (or something along those words), you can see that Waukesha actually was about 50/50 in who won in presidential races before '52.

[Türkisblau]

You explained that the two areas are different politically but didn't explain why.

[buritobr]

In the counties in Utah where Goldwater won, the Republicans won every presidential election from 1960 to 2012.
There is no data from previous elections in this site.

[Gass3268]

2) How does Waukesha County, WI fit into this picture? I can't imagine a time that it would have been voting Democratic.

Before the the mid part of the 20th century, Waukesha County actually leaned more Democratic than Republican. It wasn't until the major suburbanization of the 60's and 70's (Should be noted that Milwaukee suburbanized relatively late compared to other Northeast and Midwest cities) that it became really Republican.

[Indy Texas]

Two things:

1) I have been to the Leslie/Clay, KY area before. Why have these counties always voted Republican while Appalachia has seen massive shifts? I have been to areas of Appalachia before that have been part of the shifts and cannot identify what has caused these differences.

2) How does Waukesha County, WI fit into this picture? I can't imagine a time that it would have been voting Democratic.

1) I think I can address this with a DRA shot:



The area (generally) in blue has been historically very Republican since the Civil War. The area (generally) in red is the area that Democrats have done really well in historically and is trending heavily Republican now. The two areas are similar demographically and culturally, but pretty different politically. As for what's causing the red to shift, its probably a combination of energy policy, not being culturally liberal, and other stuff like that.

2) Waukesha County only got its Republican strength starting in the 50's and 60's. Unlike the Chicago suburbs, it has gotten more Republican over the past 20 years. If you can find the 'how has your county voted' thread (or something along those words), you can see that Waukesha actually was about 50/50 in who won in presidential races before '52.

Okay, but why are they different politically?

Just making a very loose inference from geography, it would seem odd that southeastern KY would be more historically Republican than northeastern KY. Going back to the Civil War, I'm assuming that what little slave-based economic activity there was would probably have been more present in southern KY.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

The division in Eastern Kentucky is roughly speaking marked by the Kentucky River. It goes all the way back to divisions between Democrats and National Republicans in the Jackson/Clay era.

[ElectionsGuy]

Two things:

1) I have been to the Leslie/Clay, KY area before. Why have these counties always voted Republican while Appalachia has seen massive shifts? I have been to areas of Appalachia before that have been part of the shifts and cannot identify what has caused these differences.

2) How does Waukesha County, WI fit into this picture? I can't imagine a time that it would have been voting Democratic.

1) I think I can address this with a DRA shot:



The area (generally) in blue has been historically very Republican since the Civil War. The area (generally) in red is the area that Democrats have done really well in historically and is trending heavily Republican now. The two areas are similar demographically and culturally, but pretty different politically. As for what's causing the red to shift, its probably a combination of energy policy, not being culturally liberal, and other stuff like that.

2) Waukesha County only got its Republican strength starting in the 50's and 60's. Unlike the Chicago suburbs, it has gotten more Republican over the past 20 years. If you can find the 'how has your county voted' thread (or something along those words), you can see that Waukesha actually was about 50/50 in who won in presidential races before '52.

Okay, but why are they different politically?

Just making a very loose inference from geography, it would seem odd that southeastern KY would be more historically Republican than northeastern KY. Going back to the Civil War, I'm assuming that what little slave-based economic activity there was would probably have been more present in southern KY.

I don't know, probably for the same reasons eastern TN and eastern WV are. According to this map, both regions didn't have much slavery.

[RI]

There is no data from previous elections in this site.

There is, you just have to pay for it.

[ElectionsGuy]

Conversely, the 5 counties that have always voted Democratic:

Washington DC
Elliot, KY
Brooks, TX
Jim Hogg, TX
Menominee, WI

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Conversely, the 5 counties that have always voted Democratic:

Elliot, KY

Sadly, I think that might end soon.

and it's the only county that was founded before the 20th century.

one caveat here: Lincoln was on the ballot in KY in 1860 but received very few votes in most of the state and didn't win any counties.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Conversely, the 5 counties that have always voted Democratic:

Elliot, KY

Sadly, I think that might end soon.

If it voted for Obama twice, I highly doubt it turns on a Hillary candidacy.

[Sol]

Yadkin is interesting; it's an excellent example of how different trends can reinforce an area's political leanings rather than weaken them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Eastern Kentucky proper was a major coal mining district (one of the most important in the entire United States. What's left of the industry in the area now is a tiny shadow of what used to be there). With the exception of a couple of extremely remote counties it swung over en masse to the Democratic Party during the great United Mineworkers organisation drives in the 1930s. Southeastern Kentucky had a mining element but it was smaller and more casualised; the economy was instead dominated by subsistence agriculture. Unionisation efforts were not successful in the area and its voting patterns remind as solidly Republican as before. I thought this was well known, but apparently not.

[Mr. Illini]

Two things:

1) I have been to the Leslie/Clay, KY area before. Why have these counties always voted Republican while Appalachia has seen massive shifts? I have been to areas of Appalachia before that have been part of the shifts and cannot identify what has caused these differences.

2) How does Waukesha County, WI fit into this picture? I can't imagine a time that it would have been voting Democratic.

1) I think I can address this with a DRA shot:



The area (generally) in blue has been historically very Republican since the Civil War. The area (generally) in red is the area that Democrats have done really well in historically and is trending heavily Republican now. The two areas are similar demographically and culturally, but pretty different politically. As for what's causing the red to shift, its probably a combination of energy policy, not being culturally liberal, and other stuff like that.

2) Waukesha County only got its Republican strength starting in the 50's and 60's. Unlike the Chicago suburbs, it has gotten more Republican over the past 20 years. If you can find the 'how has your county voted' thread (or something along those words), you can see that Waukesha actually was about 50/50 in who won in presidential races before '52.

Right, but this leaves the question that I asked relatively open. Clearly they are different politically...but what makes them so if they are so similar demographically and culturally?

[Sol]

Two things:

1) I have been to the Leslie/Clay, KY area before. Why have these counties always voted Republican while Appalachia has seen massive shifts? I have been to areas of Appalachia before that have been part of the shifts and cannot identify what has caused these differences.

2) How does Waukesha County, WI fit into this picture? I can't imagine a time that it would have been voting Democratic.

1) I think I can address this with a DRA shot:



The area (generally) in blue has been historically very Republican since the Civil War. The area (generally) in red is the area that Democrats have done really well in historically and is trending heavily Republican now. The two areas are similar demographically and culturally, but pretty different politically. As for what's causing the red to shift, its probably a combination of energy policy, not being culturally liberal, and other stuff like that.

2) Waukesha County only got its Republican strength starting in the 50's and 60's. Unlike the Chicago suburbs, it has gotten more Republican over the past 20 years. If you can find the 'how has your county voted' thread (or something along those words), you can see that Waukesha actually was about 50/50 in who won in presidential races before '52.

Right, but this leaves the question that I asked relatively open. Clearly they are different politically...but what makes them so if they are so similar demographically and culturally?

Where slavery was concentrated. More in what used to be the Democratic areas.

Do you have Al on ignore? Did you see the slavery map ElectionsGuy posted?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

superflash, there wasn't much slavery in either of these regions.

To summarize: Al mentioned that there had been a lot of labor union organizing to make that part of the state more Democratic.  At the same time, East KY was already more Democratic than Southeast KY across the Kentucky River, going back to long before the Civil War. What the Union organizers of the 1930s did was essentially return East KY back more securely to the voting patterns it had in the 19th century, before Republicans began gaining greater strength across the state in the first decades of the 20th century.

As to why the initial division between Whigs and Democrats along this geography I'm not sure, but it had very little to do with slavery.  Was the South of Kentucky along the Cumberland settled more from people from the North and other parts of the nation rather than the Jacksonian backcountry Virginia settlers in East KY?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Oh slavery played a role. Ohio river was a major slave free boundary.

played a role in what? We are talking about political divisions within the state of Kentucky, not between Kentucky and Ohio.

[Mr. Illini]

Two things:

1) I have been to the Leslie/Clay, KY area before. Why have these counties always voted Republican while Appalachia has seen massive shifts? I have been to areas of Appalachia before that have been part of the shifts and cannot identify what has caused these differences.

2) How does Waukesha County, WI fit into this picture? I can't imagine a time that it would have been voting Democratic.

1) I think I can address this with a DRA shot:



The area (generally) in blue has been historically very Republican since the Civil War. The area (generally) in red is the area that Democrats have done really well in historically and is trending heavily Republican now. The two areas are similar demographically and culturally, but pretty different politically. As for what's causing the red to shift, its probably a combination of energy policy, not being culturally liberal, and other stuff like that.

2) Waukesha County only got its Republican strength starting in the 50's and 60's. Unlike the Chicago suburbs, it has gotten more Republican over the past 20 years. If you can find the 'how has your county voted' thread (or something along those words), you can see that Waukesha actually was about 50/50 in who won in presidential races before '52.

Right, but this leaves the question that I asked relatively open. Clearly they are different politically...but what makes them so if they are so similar demographically and culturally?

Where slavery was concentrated. More in what used to be the Democratic areas.

Do you have Al on ignore? Did you see the slavery map ElectionsGuy posted?

There's no line at this division that has been drawn, which appears accurate according to what I have seen. The slavery map generally shows that all of Appalachia was not slave-owning area. Yet, you see Leslie and Clay Counties as historically heavily Republican while counties closer to the border as well as in WV are historically Democratic now trending Republican. I'm wondering what explains this.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

Wow, I knew that there was some slavery near where (Northern KY) I'm from but I didn't know how much there was.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Look at Kentucky. The area where slavery is concentrated corresponds to where the Democrats were strongest.

In the map ElectionsGuy posted, the Democratic areas are red, not blue.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Wow, I knew that there was some slavery near where (Northern KY) I'm from but I didn't know how much there was.

another way to look at the geography of slavery is to look at slaves as a percent of the total population (as opposed to raw numbers). This should give a decent estimation of how much the economy of an area was dependent on slavery.


There's also a pdf map series of slave pop and free persons of color for each decade at that site:
http://www.upa.pdx.edu/IMS/currentprojects/TAHv3/Slave_Citizen_GIS.html

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What on earth is going on in this thread.

Slavery had nothing to do with anything in the eastern fifth of Kentucky; you couldn't have found a less suitable place for plantation agriculture anywhere in the South (however defined) had you tried; the whole area is part of the Cumberland Plateau. Pre-New Deal voting differences were mostly to do with ancestry; i.e. you found Democrats wherever Virginians had settled and so on. Afterwards it became a matter of class consciousness. Are we clear now?