IA/NH/SC-Marist: Clinton leads Bush & Walker in IA & NH; close in SC

[Mr. Morden]

Marist poll of Iowa:

http://newscms.nbcnews.com/sites/newscms/files/iowa_february_2015_annotated_questionnaire_nbc_news-marist_poll.pdf

Clinton 48%
Bush 40%

Clinton 49%
Walker 38%

Marist poll of NH:

http://newscms.nbcnews.com/sites/newscms/files/new_hampshire_february_2015_annotated_questionnaire_nbc_news-marist_poll.pdf

Clinton 48%
Bush 42%

Clinton 49%
Walker 42%

Marist poll of SC:

http://newscms.nbcnews.com/sites/newscms/files/south_carolina_february_2015_annotated_questionnaire_nbc_news-marist_poll.pdf

Bush 48%
Clinton 45%

Clinton 46%
Walker 46%

[Mr. Morden]

- Hillary coming so close in SC? Seriously? Do they think African-American turnout will be even
   higher without Obama on the ballot?

This is a poll of registered voters, so turnout doesn't have anything to do with it.

[pbrower2a]

- Hillary leading by more in IA than in NH?

No significant difference (1%) -- deep within the margin of error.
 

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Just wait for another poll. This is consistent with PPP in Pennsylvania.
 

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This is inconsistent with Kelly Ayotte having an approval rate in the high 40s -- one usually wins with this. But she would have trouble against a strong challenger in a high-turnout election.

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It's the white vote that counts. In the Mountain and Deep South (South Carolina votes like a Deep South state mode than does Georgia or North Carolina), Barack Obama lost the white vote by huge margins in the Mountain and Deep South. If Hillary Clinton guts that vote against the GOP, then she can do much better in the South.

What is significant? Scott Walker is tied. A Republican has no chance to win the Presidency if South Carolina is close.

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It will probably be closer to 52-47 for the Republican in in South Carolina. But that is about like saying that if the Democrat wins 55-44 in Massachusetts, the Democrats are likely in trouble nationwide.

If Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee for President, then the Democrats have a good chance at 370 or so electoral votes. I held off making such a prediction until I saw a poll for Iowa.

[Devils30]

Iowa and New Hampshire don't have a lot of the types who turn out disproportionally only in presidential years. The NH poll showing Ayotte down while Clinton led by less than other NH polls is ominous for the GOP Senate chances.

[IceSpear]

Hillary is not doing better in IA than in NH.

As for SC, the Dem ceiling in the state is like 46-47%, so as much as I'd like to brag, there's really no point. But of course, it goes without saying that Jim Webb would be leading by at least 20 points in SC. #muhpopulist #muhscotsirish #muhscrustyoldwhiteguys

[IceSpear]

Hillary is not doing better in IA than in NH.

As for SC, the Dem ceiling in the state is like 46-47%, so as much as I'd like to brag, there's really no point. But of course, it goes without saying that Jim Webb would be leading by at least 20 points in SC. #muhpopulist #muhscotsirish #muhscrustyoldwhiteguys

I love your sarcasm. However, as I mentioned before, Marist also showed Obama up three points in SC in 2012. I think that virtually all Hillary voters (mostly Blacks) have already decided to vote for her and all the Undecideds (Whites) will break the GOP's way. It seems implausible that Hillary is competitive in SC, especially due to the fact that African-American turnout will be lower than in 2012.

Oh yeah, I do remember that SC poll. It resulted in much consternation on strictly poll based aggregation sites, since nobody else polled SC the entire election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker or Jeb will win SC by 8-10 pts, unless it's Graham running and it would be a lot more
But it is encouraging in Iowa, especially, since Iowa went the other way in 14 and is one of those states like CO or OH that can go either way.

[IceSpear]

Here's some other interesting findings in these polls:

- 60%+ of both Ds and Rs in all three states are satisfied with their choice of candidates (but muh coronation!)

- Branstad, Hassan, and Haley all have sky high approval ratings (second term honeymoons?)

- Most voters find support of Common Core an acceptable position, though there's no crosstabs among just Republicans

- Immigration reform with pathway to citizenship is modestly acceptable in all three states, though again, no crosstabs

- Repeal of Obamacare is modestly acceptable in all three states

- Opposing same-sex marriage is seen as very unacceptable, even in SC (!!!)

- Raising taxes on the wealthy is extremely popular, even in SC

- SC says Graham should not run for president by a 58-35 margin. Again though, no crosstabs.

[Devils30]

Obama did better in Iowa than New Hampshire in 2012 so it's possible. Still, based on other polls I think Clinton wins NH by more. South Carolina is giving Clinton 44-47% regardless. If it's a bad GOP candidate she can stay close but it's not happening. If Dems lose it will "trend" D and if Dems win it trends R.

[Pandaguineapig]

Didn't this poll show Obama leading Romney by 3 In SC, tied with him Tennessee, and Leading him by 17 in Virginia back in 2012? A marist presidential poll is probably sarcastic at this point

[Xing]

Clearly this poll must be biased! There's no way dearest Scotty could be doing worse than Jeb!

[Türkisblau]

Hillary is not doing better in IA than in NH.

As for SC, the Dem ceiling in the state is like 46-47%, so as much as I'd like to brag, there's really no point. But of course, it goes without saying that Jim Webb would be leading by at least 20 points in SC. #muhpopulist #muhscotsirish #muhscrustyoldwhiteguys

Your constant Jim Webb hate is bit weird, IceSpear. No one even mentioned him in this thread.

[IceSpear]

Hillary is not doing better in IA than in NH.

As for SC, the Dem ceiling in the state is like 46-47%, so as much as I'd like to brag, there's really no point. But of course, it goes without saying that Jim Webb would be leading by at least 20 points in SC. #muhpopulist #muhscotsirish #muhscrustyoldwhiteguys

Your constant Jim Webb hate is bit weird, IceSpear. No one even mentioned him in this thread.

LOL, I don't even hate Webb. I just think it's hilarious that some people here act like the guy is the second coming of FDR just because he's one of the few people that will run against Hillary.

[pbrower2a]

We will get to see other polls that corroborate or debunk Marist.