Hillary Landslide in 2016

[bobloblaw]

We heard a lot of hope from the left that Hillary will win a historic landslide in 2016.

This would indeed be historic because not since 1904(1928 the GOP did but 1924 was a three way race) has the party that held the WH for two terms increase both its percent of the popular vote and absolute number of votes when running for a third term (even FDR got fewer total votes in 1940 than in 1936). 1904 was some what special. McKinnley had just been assassinated and TR was the President. Kind of like 1964.

But the odd argument goes something like this. Hillary being a white woman will get more votes than Obama did. It is odd, because Dems are admitting that a certain percentage of their base is racist. In fact they seem to be suggesting that there are a lot of racist feminists in the Dem party. People who wont vote for a black guy, but would vote for a white woman.

Of course it begs the question, if Hillary was so great, why did she lose to Obama in the first place?

[Angel of Death]

Of course it begs the question, if Hillary was so great, why did she lose to Obama in the first place?

This.

[bobloblaw]

I agree that is the reason

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

We heard a lot of hope from the left that Hillary will win a historic landslide in 2016.

This would indeed be historic because not since 1904(1928 the GOP did but 1924 was a three way race) has the party that held the WH for two terms increase both its percent of the popular vote and absolute number of votes when running for a third term (even FDR got fewer total votes in 1940 than in 1936). 1904 was some what special. McKinnley had just been assassinated and TR was the President. Kind of like 1964.

But the odd argument goes something like this. Hillary being a white woman will get more votes than Obama did. It is odd, because Dems are admitting that a certain percentage of their base is racist. In fact they seem to be suggesting that there are a lot of racist feminists in the Dem party. People who wont vote for a black guy, but would vote for a white woman.

Of course it begs the question, if Hillary was so great, why did she lose to Obama in the first place?

I don't think it means that they are racist, it means that they would vote for Hillary simply because she's a woman, not because she's white.

[IceSpear]

We heard a lot of hope from the left that Hillary will win a historic landslide in 2016.

This would indeed be historic because not since 1904(1928 the GOP did but 1924 was a three way race) has the party that held the WH for two terms increase both its percent of the popular vote and absolute number of votes when running for a third term (even FDR got fewer total votes in 1940 than in 1936). 1904 was some what special. McKinnley had just been assassinated and TR was the President. Kind of like 1964.

How are you defining "historic landslide?" Ever since the midterms, the ridiculous pie in the sky predictions about Hillary winning 400+ EVs have more or less disappeared.

As for the rest...yeah, just like how an incumbent president either increases their share of the vote or loses. Until 2012. Or like how an incumbent PA governor won't lose re-election. Until 2014. Or like how the party out of the WH always wins the VA governorship. Until 2013. "Rules" like these are meant to be broken, and countless are every single election.

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Don't many Republicans talk about how nominating Rubio will help with the Hispanic vote, or think that nominating Carson would help with the black vote? Yes, identity politics is clearly a factor. It's not as though Dems suddenly expect the KKK to become #ready4hillary en masse, but the same time, it's also true that moderate/right-leaning women will be particularly receptive to Hillary breaking the glass ceiling once and for all.

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Indeed. Christine O'Donnell was clearly a superior candidate to Mike Castle. If she wasn't, why did she beat him in the primary?

[moderatevoter]

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Indeed. Christine O'Donnell was clearly a superior candidate to Mike Castle. If she wasn't, why did she beat him in the primary?

[King]

In the 1992 and 1993, the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers would meet in the NFC Championship game. Both years the Cowboys would win that game narrowly then proceed to romp the Buffalo Bills in the SuperBowl by 30 points.

In 1994, the Cowboys struggled under a new head coach and the 49ers won the NFC. The SuperBowl result was the same: a 30 point blowout of the AFC.

Arguing that Clinton is vulnerable to the Republican nominee because she lost to Obama is equivalent to saying the Bills would have beaten the 49ers.

Greater defeating Great in the semifinals doesn't mean that Mediocre will defeat Great in the final when Greater is out of the game.

[Earthling]

William McKinley hadn't just died. He was assassinated over three years earlier in September 1901. Kennedy died less than a year before the 1964 election (late November 1963).

And there are few people predicting a landslide in 2016. Clinton winning between 50% and 52% of the popular vote and 303 and 347 electoral votes is not a landslide but a realistic result next year.

[henster]

I think the only state Hillary could end up winning that Obama didn't is NC.

[Skill and Chance]

We heard a lot of hope from the left that Hillary will win a historic landslide in 2016.

This would indeed be historic because not since 1904(1928 the GOP did but 1924 was a three way race) has the party that held the WH for two terms increase both its percent of the popular vote and absolute number of votes when running for a third term (even FDR got fewer total votes in 1940 than in 1936). 1904 was some what special. McKinnley had just been assassinated and TR was the President. Kind of like 1964.

But the odd argument goes something like this. Hillary being a white woman will get more votes than Obama did. It is odd, because Dems are admitting that a certain percentage of their base is racist. In fact they seem to be suggesting that there are a lot of racist feminists in the Dem party. People who wont vote for a black guy, but would vote for a white woman.

Of course it begs the question, if Hillary was so great, why did she lose to Obama in the first place?

I don't think it means that they are racist, it means that they would vote for Hillary simply because she's a woman, not because she's white.

This.  The idea is that she could get 10-20% of female Romney voters by virtue of being the first woman nominee.  These people are otherwise rather conservative.  She may be the first and only Dem they would vote for.

[heatmaster]

Icespear! My oh my! How you cling to the most ridiculous of notions, that Hillary is going to win, never mind in a landslide! You have been drinking too much of that kool-aid, if there's any landslide in which Hillary is involved, it will be when she loses by one, and it will be truly ironic when she loses to Jeb Bush. The rules you referred to were merely isolated aberration's and I wouldn't be looking for those Hillary inaugural tickets quite yet.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Icespear! My oh my! How you cling to the most ridiculous of notions, that Hillary is going to win, never mind in a landslide! You have been drinking too much of that kool-aid, if there's any landslide in which Hillary is involved, it will be when she loses by one, and it will be truly ironic when she loses to Jeb Bush. The rules you referred to were merely isolated aberration's and I wouldn't be looking for those Hillary inaugural tickets quite yet.

Romney doesn't look like somebody who is panicking; rather my money is on Obama, he's chasing his tail around the country and for a guy who's at 47%, there's less hope and well, the change could be here on Wednesday morning. Obama is trying to mobilize his base, Romney is expanding the map and forcing Obama into a crunch; if this wasn't the case, why do we see Obama campaigning around the clock, spending money on ad buys in "safe" states; the problem with Dem logic, is they believe there propaganda and buy into this assumption, that the 2008 model is happening again, if so, why isn't Obama polling at the same level as he did four years ago; the idea that Obama might or could exceed his 2008 performance is preposterous; you look at his polling/approval rating for most of the year, it has been stuck at 48% and going above 50% is a rare occurrence and as an observer of how undecideds break by a majority for the challenger. Bottom line, my gut tells me this, Romney wins, by what margin, that is a question which remains murky. My gut is never wrong.

It's plausible, but Pennsylvania will likely end up in the Romney column; look at the Coal country and the burbs around Philly.

[The Other Castro]

Icespear! My oh my! How you cling to the most ridiculous of notions, that Hillary is going to win, never mind in a landslide! You have been drinking too much of that kool-aid, if there's any landslide in which Hillary is involved, it will be when she loses by one, and it will be truly ironic when she loses to Jeb Bush. The rules you referred to were merely isolated aberration's and I wouldn't be looking for those Hillary inaugural tickets quite yet.

Romney doesn't look like somebody who is panicking; rather my money is on Obama, he's chasing his tail around the country and for a guy who's at 47%, there's less hope and well, the change could be here on Wednesday morning. Obama is trying to mobilize his base, Romney is expanding the map and forcing Obama into a crunch; if this wasn't the case, why do we see Obama campaigning around the clock, spending money on ad buys in "safe" states; the problem with Dem logic, is they believe there propaganda and buy into this assumption, that the 2008 model is happening again, if so, why isn't Obama polling at the same level as he did four years ago; the idea that Obama might or could exceed his 2008 performance is preposterous; you look at his polling/approval rating for most of the year, it has been stuck at 48% and going above 50% is a rare occurrence and as an observer of how undecideds break by a majority for the challenger. Bottom line, my gut tells me this, Romney wins, by what margin, that is a question which remains murky. My gut is never wrong.

It's plausible, but Pennsylvania will likely end up in the Romney column; look at the Coal country and the burbs around Philly.

His gut told him Romney would win though, you see. Meanwhile Icespear is being foolish by looking at polls and historical patterns for some reason instead of trusting whims and gut feelings. (Sarcasm)

[pbrower2a]

A Hillary Clinton landslide involves picking everything in red or white, most likely the one state in pink (NC), possibly the one in light blue (IN) and a significant number of those in yellow...   


Carter 1976, Obama 2012   

Carter 1976, Obama twice  red
Carter 1976, Obama once pink
Carter 1976, Obama never yellow
Ford 1976, Obama twice white
Ford 1976, Obama once light blue
Ford 1976, Obama never blue

Add light green for those that Bill Clinton won once, but neither Carter nor Obama ever won. The ones in deep blue have not voted for any Democratic nominee except in the LBJ blowout landslide since 1948.

[Mr. Illini]

It isn't the maps that are screwing up the page.

Hillary's ceiling, were the GOP to really f*** it up.

[°Leprechaun]

Of course it begs the question, if Hillary was so great, why did she lose to Obama in the first place?

This.

This vote alone should disqualify her from ever again being elected to any office.

[King]

Oh come on, seriously! Do you really believe that the GOP will nominate a clown who could manage to lose Arkansas? Surprised why so many Dems think that the GOP bench is a clown car. Trust me, they will nominate a decent, great candidate in 2016.

Ceiling is a maximum victory under completely perfect conditions. For example, Arizona, Missouri, and Georgia were part of Obama's ceiling in 2012 but he didn't really have a shot at winning any of them.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Rubio breaking through for Hispanics....first Hispanic president of the United States, could happen.

[Mr. Illini]

It isn't the maps that are screwing up the page.

Hillary's ceiling, were the GOP to really f*** it up.

Oh come on, seriously! Do you really believe that the GOP will nominate a clown who could manage to lose Arkansas? Surprised why so many Dems think that the GOP bench is a clown car. Trust me, they will nominate a decent, great candidate in 2016.

There's a reason I labeled it her ceiling and not a likely happening. She could win Arkansas in best case scenario, whereas even in a big landslide year I don't see her capturing Texas or Utah.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

It isn't the maps that are screwing up the page.

Hillary's ceiling, were the GOP to really f*** it up.

Oh come on, seriously! Do you really believe that the GOP will nominate a clown who could manage to lose Arkansas? Surprised why so many Dems think that the GOP bench is a clown car. Trust me, they will nominate a decent, great candidate in 2016.

There's a reason I labeled it her ceiling and not a likely happening. She could win Arkansas in best case scenario, whereas even in a big landslide year I don't see her capturing Texas or Utah.

If she's winning Arkansas, she's also winning Indiana and Montana.

[bobloblaw]

The Dem candidate in 2016 (win or lose) will under perform Obama's 2012 total and percent of the popular vote.

[IceSpear]

The Dem candidate in 2016 (win or lose) will under perform Obama's 2012 total and percent of the popular vote.

Just like how Obama would either lose re-election or win by a wider margin than 2008?

[heatmaster]

Guess she's gonna buy the election with all those donors coming into both the Clinton Foundation & the CGI: Those Clinton's are up those old tricks applied from the 1996 campaign; nice to see things haven't changed,  but just great from a Republican's perspective....another issue in which to hammer Hillary on, guess neither will CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS or the Democratic friendly media cover the story: ah! Thank god for good old Fox News☺

[heatmaster]

Did anyone hear of the phrase? "if you can't stand the heat, get out of the kitchen" It's got nothing to do with sexism...its about ethics! ...what am I talking about? To the Clinton's, ethics is like garlic is to vampires...lethal!  If Republicans were involved in the type of Clinton chicanery, they would be pilloried by the likes of Chris Matthews & every other type of liberal apologist for the left-wing conspiracy...give me a break!