Pat Buchanan Third Party 1996

[DDGE]

Let's assume that Pat Buchanan still runs in the Republican primaries in 1996 and, after giving a whole-hearted and emotional speech at the RNC, with his passionate fan base watching and savoring his every word, he decides to accept the Presidential nomination of the US Taxpayers Party, after Bob Dole chooses New York Governor George Pataki as his VP. He also gets the backing of the Reform Party, the NY Right to Life Party and the NY Conservative Party, among other right-leaning parties.

The tickets are as follows:

Republicans: Bob Dole/ George Pataki
Democrats: Bill Clinton/ Al Gore
"Buchanan's Coalition": Pat Buchanan/ Thomas Monaghan*

* Was chairman & CEO of Domino's Pizza at the time

What does the Electoral Vote look like? What is the final map? What is the final popular vote for all candidates?

[NeverAgain]

I'm going to say that Clinton wins, Buchanan just takes [R] Voters away from Dole. (Assuming he wins the nomination)

[DDGE]

Does anybody think they can put up a map with the Electoral Vote and Popular Vote included?? Does Buchanan get lucky enough to get any Electoral Votes??

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Does anybody think they can put up a map with the Electoral Vote and Popular Vote included?? Does Buchanan get lucky enough to get any Electoral Votes??

A strongest possible performance by Buchanan probably looks like this:

Not certain about the popular vote, though Dole will be under 40% no matter how minimal Buchanan is.

How does Clinton increase his own totals with the Republicans merely splitting their own votes?

[DDGE]

Does Buchanan finish 2nd in any states??

[MATTROSE94]

What states would have made up Pat Buchanan's base of support if he ran in 1996?

[Tayya]

Considering the low turnout in '96, Buchanan might not hurt Dole that much - many of his supporters could have stayed home in our timeline.

[Free Bird]

Does anybody think they can put up a map with the Electoral Vote and Popular Vote included?? Does Buchanan get lucky enough to get any Electoral Votes??

A strongest possible performance by Buchanan probably looks like this:

Not certain about the popular vote, though Dole will be under 40% no matter how minimal Buchanan is.

How tf does AZ have 2 electoral votes?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Buchanan instead of Perot means Clinton picks up some independent votes. Dole can also pick up some more votes in less religiously conservative areas without the presence of Perot, though  damaged by Buchanan's presence in the more conservative areas. In some places Buchanan could pick up a small number of socially conservative populist Democrats. Overall Buchanan is likely to not be as strong a candidate as Perot, even in 96, as most religious conservatives stick with the lesser of two evils and he puts off many Perotian moderates.

50.7% (400) - 40.9% (138) - 6.9%