Nelson's beatable with a good candidate in a neutral or better year, but he has the most astounding luck with getting terrible opponents who nonetheless clear the field. No amount of money would be enough to put Scott over Nelson, even if we had 2010 style conditions.
Sounds about right, plus Nelson's heading up there. I can imagine some primary challenge fighting him on the same grounds as he did when he primaried Lawton Chiles
To be fair, when he primaried Lawton Chiles, we had the FDP of Lawton Chiles. Can't think of anyone who's deluded enough to think they can take down a sitting incumbent and then beat a Republican in a midterm.